This season isn’t even close to being over. We are.... still in it
- Thread starter PSU95alum
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Different seasons. Give me your 4 team playoff that puts 11-1 psu in. There’s too much in front of them right now. Bama is in unless they drop two. Osu is in over psu unless they drop two. Clemson is in if they win out which is highly highly likely. ND is favored in all of their remaining games, so is OU. Georgia is in if they win out or lose a close one to bama and if they beat bama the sec probably gets 2. The winner of Stanford Washington probably finishes with one loss and could be chosen. There are a lot of plausible scenarios that result in 11-1 psu on the outside looking in.
Since you say 11-1 I gues that means osu doesn’t lose twice in the regular season.
I guess is you need two of three (big 12 champ (possible), Nd (unlikely) and acc champ(very unlikely) to each have one loss.) or one of these to happen and have osu drop one regular season game and the big ten champ game plus bama to eviscerate everyone so the sec doesn’t get a second team. Meanwhile Penn state goes on the war path and dominates the rest of the schedule to appear to be the top one loss team.
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You're right. Every team ahead us will win out or only lose one close game to a team ranked ahead of them. And every other one-loss team will be picked ahead of PSU even though their only loss would have been by one-point to tOSU.
You doubt we win out? Who's going to beat us? MSU? I laugh at the notion. Wisky? Way overrated and not in our building. Michigan? The same one that struggled to beat a depleted NW and was fortunate to win? Which of those beat us or do you like Rutgers, Indiana, and Maryland to take us down?
There is but it’s going to take a lot of chaos to make the playoff. Unless you envision the big ten and the sec each getting two spots bama needs to win out and eviscerate the winner of Georgia/LSU. Two of the following 3 need to finish with 1 loss (acc champ/big12 champ/nd). Then hope to committee likes 1 loss psu over the other 1 loss teams that will have conference championships or td Jesus.
Or the 3 way tie between osu/psu/(winner of MSU/um) to make the big ten cg. This is the most direct and likely scenario that puts us in in my opinion, moreso if MSU beats scum.
4 of our next 6 games are against ranked opponents. Plenty of football left whether it results in a playoff or not, we get to play a ton of meaningful football games against wonderful competition. Maybe we try to enjoy it?
I get it, you all thought we would be undefeated this season, actually, no you did'nt, almost nobody predicted that. Time to get back on the horse and payback Sparty in a few weeks.
I get it, you all thought we would be undefeated this season, actually, no you did'nt, almost nobody predicted that. Time to get back on the horse and payback Sparty in a few weeks.
If I went back to August 1, and told this board: "we are going to play a solid game against the Buckeyes, but lose by 1" everyone would have called me crazy. I saw maybe 1 person predict 12-0.
We are capable of beating every team left on the schedule. Minimally, that's probably good enough for #5 or #6. What more can we want?
We are capable of beating every team left on the schedule. Minimally, that's probably good enough for #5 or #6. What more can we want?
To me, a Michigan loss is probable. After that, the landscape of college football today lends itself to upsets every week. Wisconsin could beat us. App State nearly did it and Wiscy is better. Maryland and Michigan State are capable. I'm not saying we can't win out. Just that the odds are against it.
The problem and I am guilty of it just as much as the next guy is that with 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter, a playoff berth seems very doable. Suddenly your very realistic predictions for the season go out the window and you completely forget about them even after the loss. Oh what could have been...
LSU, GA, and Bama...two of three will have at least one loss. Oklahoma almost lost to Army...they aren’t going undefeated. ND will lose at least one to someone they shouldn’t. We almost never even have one undefeated team let alone multiple teams. There have already been many upsets and near upsets, injuries happen, average teams get better....there’s a lot of season left and no one knows what’s going to happen.
The odds are not great, but have you watched college football before? Chaos is commonplace. Who thought PSU had any chance of winning the B10 after the UM loss in 2016? Crazy shit happens just about every year.
But if the team folds like you have, then there is no chance.
I’m not worried about 4 undefeated. Even if all those scenarios play out you’ve got a glut of one loss teams and you’re then putting it in the hands of the committee to pick PSU over the other one loss teams. I’m not saying it’s impossible just unlikely. Penn State looking like a juggernaut over the rest of the season would help.
Random observations. Texas winning the big 12 would be best case since they lost to the terps. the LSU or Georgia winner playing a tight game with bama hurts. Osu losing the big ten champ game to Wisconsin (hey they gotta pull an upset in this game sooner or later) could open the door for us to jump them as a ccg loser has never been selected and we’d have the win over the badgers and a better loss.
The moment we failed the 2 pt conversion, I looked to my family and plainly told them: "we will give up 2 TDs and have to drive the field for a FG to win."
I didn't know if we could make the kick, but I really felt that we would get in range to attempt it. I walked outside and stood in the dark for 30 minutes listening to a nearby creek run. I stayed off the board during the game and after until the next day.
Being that close and losing sucks. But it's better than being incompetent and unable to compete. I remember those days.
Agree it is far from a guarantee, and the B1G has been left out three times with a one-loss team, but again, an 11-1 PSU team with its only loss to OSU by one point will likely be a "better choice" than most other one-loss teams (of course, depends on the SEC as they seem to always get special treatment). Here are the number of P5 0/1 loss teams at the time of selection since 2014:
2017 5 (one-loss Wisconsin did not get in)
2016 4
2015 6 (one-loss Iowa and tOSU did not get in)
2014 6 (one-loss Baylor and TCU did not get in)
No one is playing a tight game with Bama. I agree that it would help if OSU loses to Wiscy, assuming we beat Wiscy. Texas won’t win the Big 12, but Oklahoma may lose to Texas or WVU then win the championship game. The point is, a lot of things could happen. I’m just worried about PSU winning and the rest will be whatever it will be.
OSU will lose TWO games this year?? Hope you aren’t betting your house on this one.
OSU is not losing 2 games. If they lose one, they beat PSU
PSU is done this year even at 11-1.
PSU has NO path to the Big 10 Championship
Big 10 is NOT getting two teams in the CFP
It is simply NOT happening.
PSU is playing for another New Years Day Bowl... that was determined last Saturday at 11pm.
PSU is done this year even at 11-1.
PSU has NO path to the Big 10 Championship
Big 10 is NOT getting two teams in the CFP
It is simply NOT happening.
PSU is playing for another New Years Day Bowl... that was determined last Saturday at 11pm.
To me, there's no way in hell a Michigan loss is "probable." But let's destroy MSU first.
Are they taking OSU over us if they lose the BIG championship game and we're 11-1? I'm not so certain of that
We are in it but this Notre Dame game was big. I do not see them losing and I don’t see a path with 2 big 10 teams and Nd. Osu would need to lose a game and the big 10 championship if Notre Dame is a factor
Side note, I think we lose at least 1 more. Probably Michigan on the road
Side note, I think we lose at least 1 more. Probably Michigan on the road
Give me a break. I could easily see ND choking against Pitt, Navy, Syracuse or USC.
Nothing about that team screams "good team."
The team they just put away lost to Old Dominion
Maybe next week will be when Pitt has their annual "beat a top ten team they have no business beating" game. Would be big for us in terms of any playoff chances.
If you think we lose one more, what was the purpose in your commentary? Should have simply said up front: "we lose one more and eliminate ourself from discussion."
Currently, WVU, Washington, and LSU have no business being ranked ahead of Penn State.
Auburn will drop below us. I don’t think Oklahoma will
Auburn will drop below us. I don’t think Oklahoma will
That is far from set. It is not at all clear that Clemson, OSU or ND will make it. WVU may be more likely to have a clear path.
My purpose was to say exactly what I said. 2 big 10 teams and Notre Dame will not get in. Those 2 teams could include Michigan
Pft! ND will choke, take that to the bank. And the team they’ll choke on will be an unlikely source to help Penn State..... Pitt.
It's been in their heads ever since Alabama demolished them in the NC game around five years ago. Kelly's program is a paper tiger and his players know it. They get into nailbiters against horrible teams on a regular basis.
If we win out, we are very likely ranked no worse than #5 or #6. SEC doesn't get two teams in if it means an instant rematch of the expected Alabama/UGA CCG in playoff semi final #1 unless it's Bama losing. Then they might shuffle UGA to #1, Bama to #3.
OSU winning out helps us most, and it just doesn't seem likely that they lose 2.
ND needs to win out as does Clemson. They have lost the buffer of undefeated teams they previously had this week. Plus, neither has a "good loss" left on the schedule.
Too much left to play.
OSU winning out helps us most, and it just doesn't seem likely that they lose 2.
ND needs to win out as does Clemson. They have lost the buffer of undefeated teams they previously had this week. Plus, neither has a "good loss" left on the schedule.
Too much left to play.
Refresher. I posted this 3 weeks ago and people thought I was nuts. Well, after last weeks upsets and OSU losing 1 of the 2 I said they would, here we are. The only problem is the obvious problem. We didn’t TCB and seem to be getting worse. My point- had we been able to move on from the OSU loss, we’d be sitting pretty. But then again, if my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.
