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Why Wisconsin terrifies me (trap game)

The afterglow of Saturday is finally fading a bit, and like most of you, I'm analyzing our chances after the bye and beyond. And history tells us to be afraid of PSU's performance in this very position.

2017--Lose heartbreaker in Columbus. Hardly drop in the polls, but we go to a less talented #24 MSU team the next week, endure an ungodly storm delay, and fritter the game away. Most talented Franklin team wasted.

2018--Lose heartbreaker to OSU in Happy Valley. Get a bye. Come out flat after a bye week against unranked MSU team and lose again. No more top 10 ranking that season for us...

2019--8-0 and ranked #3 in the country. Coming off bye week, we travel to #17 Minnesota and lay an egg.

2021--start a solid 5-0 and ranked #4. Travel to #3 Iowa and lose a heartbreaker. Bye week...and come home and lose the worst game in PSU history, 9OT against a terrible Illinois team.

Three AWFUL performances that wasted our potential for the season coming right after a bye week...and all four seasons saw us lose to teams we should have beaten. I hope Franklin has learned from these trials and is determined to keep his players sharp physically and mentally because this road game to Wisconsin is by far our biggest TRAP game of the season
Always a choice. Dwell (and look for) negative things, or focus on the positives. I'm with the players. WE ARE...
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What to expect from Wisconsin

Help me out here if you know anything about the Wisconsin players and matchups.

One thing you can say about them is they've played a tougher schedule than PSU. They've lost to the good teams, beaten the bad teams. They may have played their best game of the season handling NW but NW doesn't have much going on this year. Blew out Rutgers but the bottom has dropped out for RU so that may not mean much. Beaten soundly by USC -- USC outscored them 28-0 in the 2nd half (game was at USC). Lost to Alabama.

Passing yards per completion, PSU ranks 12th, WI 68th, but they have played better teams so that may not mean much.
Scoring defense, WI ranks 18th in the country. That may mean something. IL ranks 22nd and that's probably the best defense PSU has seen. (PSU ranks 9th by the way, but again, hasn't played the kind of teams Wisconsin has played). PSU's 10th in Rushing D, Wisconsin 61st, again see schedule.

Sacks allowed, PSU ranks 16th, WI 30th. Rushing offense, PSU 25th, Wisconsin 35. Turnover margin, Wisky ranks 101 bc they've lost 7 fumbles and 5 Ints. (PSU is middle of the pack in TO margin). But you could turn that around to mean, maybe Wisky would have won a couple more games if they hadn't fumbled so much. Still, I bet PSU is emphasizing forcing fumbles this week.

Team tackles for loss: PSU is 30th, Wisky only 120th. So they do not have a D-line that gets a lot of penetration and/or not a lot of blitzing. That may be style of play if they're playing a relatively passive BBDB kind of scheme. Still, that looks like one potential area of opportunity for PSU.

I really don't know what the WI players to watch are. Reportedly a good secondary, great safety (though they only rank 106th in interceptions -- PSU is only 69th), good running backs. Their QB looked good against Rutgers but he was under no pressure, so who knows.

All in all I would guess a pretty similar game to Illinois. Tougher in that it will be an away game, but Illinois may have better athletes in a few places and a very good QB. PSU has done well in recent years against Wisconsin -- they've usually won with speed and explosive plays. But this year, with this offensive line and Kotelnicki's running schemes, they might be able to play bully ball a little bit too.
Not sure I agree that they have had the tougher schedule. @ West Virginia (before that entire team quit), plus ranked Illinois instead of 2-loss (one against Vanderbilt) Alabama. That's even there. Then Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern? We can agree to disagree.

What to expect from Wisconsin

FWIW, they're defensive rankings (specifically secondary/passing) are VERY skewed. They played some of the worst passing teams in FBS - Northwestern, Rutgers, Purdue, South Dakota, and Western Michigan. Against USC and Bama, that defense was absolutely lit up by Milroe and Moss + each's running game.

They'll play sound fundamental defense, but they can't keep up with superior athletes and speed.

I don't think they'll trust their QB to do much down the field. My prediction is that they'll attempt to run the ball and shorten the game. Make it ugly. Hopefully depend on a miscue or 3. Keep it close. Pull one out at the end.

Opposite of week's past, I think PSU will come out slingin' to open up the run later in the game. Make Wisky play from behind.

Defensively, sell out to stuff the run and make the QB beat our secondary with longer developing route trees. Hopefully turn 3-step drops into 5 and 7-step drops to let the pass rush do it's thing.

PSU/tOSU at noon on FOX

Well FOX acquired the first pick that day for the Big Ten. They were always most likely to take PSU/tOSU especially once Michigan lost some games but they officially took the game now
It's just such an awful time for any game, let alone maybe the biggest game of that weekend. There's just no time for the anticipation and excitement to build to a cresendo.

What to expect from Wisconsin

Stop the run. That’s it.
I agree. I would hope that the defensive staff has a plan to take the run away from them. Bill Belichick was famous with the Patriots for taking away what a team does best and making them one dimensional. I'd be shocked if Wisconsin would have much success if PSU makes them mostly a passing team.

Marcus Blaze thread

I don't think it is a horrible thing to have a freshman ride the bench waiting to break the lineup for a year and maybe even 2. I do understand that most want to start all 4 years
In theory, I agree with you. However, the very cream of the crop, such as Marcus Blaze, are candidates to win it all as true Freshman and therefore would like a fair shot to win the job right away at their respective weights.
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