The AP poll this week has Georgia ahead of Ole Miss and by a wider margin than it has Alabama ahead of Georgia. Why is that significant? It means these voters put a higher priority on "good losses" and bad losses than head to head. Georgia has two good losses to two top 12 teams, Bama and Ole Miss. Both road losses. Ole Miss has two bad losses, Kentucky and LSU, especially with LSU losing to Florida this past week. If the CFP rankings follow this logic then Georgia will he ahead of Ole Miss.
Implication for Penn State is we cannot lose again or our playoff chances will be very slim. Why?
Indiana will be a team we will be jockeying with for a playoff spot if they lose on Saturday. Even if Indiana loses to OSU they would be ahead of us by only having one loss and a good loss to OSU assuming they are not blown out. This good loss puts them ahead of us. We also would have two losses and one being a bad loss to Minny, for example. In this scenario that then leaves us in a death match versus Tennessee for the 11th spot assuming no other disruptive upsets.
When looking at a 2 loss Penn State vs a 2 loss Tennessee I believe the edge goes to Tennessee. Our losses would be comparable, a good loss and a bad loss, PSU losing to OSU and Minny, Tenn6lising to Georgia and Arkansas. We do currently have the edge in strength of schedule (#32 vs #49). However, I believe the deciding factor would be the signature win comparison. We will not have beaten anyone that good and our best win would be #24 Illinois. They will have beaten a top ten Alabama. That is their trump card over us.
I believe we will win out so we can avoid this mess. In my opinion, we have started the playoffs and our next two games are must wins, no room for error. If we do lose again then we would need some favorable upsets such as USC beating ND an/or Vandy beating Tennessee.