Do you have one of those gif things that shows a Lion laughing it's ass off. PSU finishing first is dance worthy, any Iowa failure doesn't generate a dance routine but belly laughter is certain.
2024
- Thread starter sunshinedynomite
- Start date
With only two exceptions it has been 3rd, 4th or 5th for dozen years. I don't know if that is enough to be a while, but it has to be close.
When Nebraska's in the mix does that make Manning yell louder and become even more irritating?
Let’s check the split screen.
some the buckeye site have Kharchla/Hepner 165/174 or flipped depending on growth.
There have been rumors about 49-65 all having tough cuts and potentially bumping. And the way OSU bulks I could definitely see Welsh going up to 84. Then Shumate will have to either duke it out with he or Rogotzke long term but that’s life.
They are going to have a logjam at 184-197 because they also have Geog there which people are really high on
Am I allowed to admit I’m *slightly* worried about 2023? We win NCAAs by dominating in national champions and I’m not sure any of our guys are stone cold locks like I’ve thought in years past. RBY is close but beating Fix in three straight finals almost seems unfathomable. Starocci wrestles a lot of close matches. Brooks took an L this year. Dean has taken two L’s. Kerk could win or could lose to Parris/Cassioppi.
Meanwhile, I think Iowa wins at 125 and 141 and shows good AA depth otherwise.
On top of that, our guys aren’t scoring a lot of bonus points this year. But Spencer alone could score 10 bonus points.
I think we win, but I’m not sure it’s the lock that everyone else sees.
Do I need to delete this post?
Meanwhile, I think Iowa wins at 125 and 141 and shows good AA depth otherwise.
On top of that, our guys aren’t scoring a lot of bonus points this year. But Spencer alone could score 10 bonus points.
I think we win, but I’m not sure it’s the lock that everyone else sees.
Do I need to delete this post?
you mean 25 and 41. Agreed. I think the premise is that based on history our guys come through. I agree that at the Natty level anything can happen and the 1 out of 10 matches can bite you. I think we have AA locks and really good chances at another 3-5 champs
Trust in Cael, he said they'd be ready.
I'd delete it but what do I know....
What @johnstownsteel meant to type.
Have another White Claw.
PSU’s model for team championships has been to put 3-5 guys into the finals and have another 2-3 guys AA.
The 4-5 individual champs thing is a modern tweak used in the model for expanding a stranglehold on recruiting.
Provided good health, I am not “concerned” about 2023 (even if PSU were to somehow whiff in the finals). A bunch of crazy things would need to happen for Iowa to have more finalists than PSU . . . and even if the number of finalists were comparable, crazy stuff would have to happen for Iowa to have more Top 3/4 finishes.
Iowa needs a perfect tournament while PSU simultaneously has a bad one. Iowa’s point potential is riding very heavily on 4 guys (Lee, Woods, Warner, Cassioppi). Maybe Murin sneaks into 4th/5th and Siebrecht picks up a couple falls, but otherwise, 4 horses will not be enough. PSU has 5 horses, and the supporting cast of Bartlett, SVN, Haines, and Facundo should easily match or outscore Iowa’s supporting cast of Teske, Murin, Siebrecht, Kennedy, Brands, and Assad.
The way I see it, Iowas absolute ceiling in the number of champs and number of AAs is at or below PSUs absolute floor. It's sports where weird things happen but its gonna take a great tourney from Iowa and a horrible tournament from PSU to lose this thing. I don't see that happening. My biggest concern is injuries or the team coming down with the flu or something not their performance.
I ordered some snack packs from Wuhan, China to donate to Penn St wrestling. Should arrive in time so the guys can all enjoy them on their way to Tulsa. They will be ready!
125: Gonzales or Kilkeary or transfer
133: Bouzakis
141: Mendez
149: D'Emilio
157: Sasso
165: Gallagher
174: Kharchla
184: Bell/Shumate/Geog
197: hoffman
285: Feldman
How do you see 184/197 shaking out once Hoffman is gone? You will have Rogotze, Geog, Shumate, and Bell off the top of my head. That’s a group of really tough kids all looking to man 2 spots. Who do you think wins out?
I honestly just don't understand the recruiting of Rogotzke - unless they saw something in Geog they don't like. Rogotzke is definitely the higher ranked recruit, so holding him off will probably be pretty hard.
after Hoffman, i got Shumate 184, geog 197. After Rogotzke redshirts - I think Geog transfers.
If you don’t delete it the powers that be may arrange a trade, you to GIA straight up for me to Nittany Nation. However I do have a no trade clause in my GIA contract so I could prevent this…..but would I?
Thanks for the reply. I was really surprised with the Rogotzke commitment as well. I think I heard multiple wrestling pundits say that they thought Geog was the recruit who flew under the radar a bit but was going to really flourish at the college level and become a star. I only saw him wrestle in the 1 dual this year but in that match I was expecting more. I loved Shumate in his early high school years but he really plateaued and by his senior year a lot of guys caught or passed him. That said, I thought he looked pretty good this year. Looking at his wrestlestat he beat Poznanski this season but he did lose to Geog 6-1. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out. Very similar situation to what PSU will be dealing with at the same weights in the coming years….just a much lower level of recruit than PSU of course 😉
Delete!! I think last year and even the year before that our guys weren’t locks to win the title but year after year PSU performs when it matters most. RBY wasn’t favored to beat Fix in most peoples eyes outside of PSU. Starocci lost to Kem at Big 10’s 2 years ago and wasn’t the favorite to win that year. AB lost to Amine last year and was probably 50/50 to win after Bigs. Max had lost during the season and most saw 197 as a complete toss-up. I’m just saying that I don’t think PSU has had a total lock in the past few seasons like Spencer is this year or Zain, Nolf, and Bo were during a couple of their seasons. That said, PSU just continues to win almost every big match especially at the national tournament. I think we have 5 guys that can and probably should win the title but if they don’t win they are as close to a guarantee as you can get that they will at least AA. BB has a better chance of being in the finals than he does of not placing in my opinion. Same with Levi. I will be very surprised if he doesn’t AA. That is 7 AA’s with 2 very very good freshman who can absolutely place. I’m not sure which 1 but I think 1 of them pulls through and becomes an AA while the other wins a few matches but comes up just short. I feel like all of these predictions are pretty sound and not viewed through PSU homer glasses. If they do get 8 AA’s they win easily even if they don’t get a single champion. For Iowa to win they would have to have the best tournament of their lives while PSU underperforms on a historic level. Right now most models I’ve seen predict PSU to win by a huge margin. As fans just like the actual wrestlers we all have moments where doubt creeps in and we start questioning if we really are as good as we think. When that happens I try to remember that Cael, Cody, and Casey are in the corner and that the last 10+ years have proven that on the biggest stage the PSU kids step up while the rest of the country shrinks (looking at you Iowa). When I remember those things I just smile and get excited for the national tournament when I get to watch PSU win another title!
POTY candidate. Or do we actually have to type something? HaSlow down. It's early.
Great post! I like putting different scenarios in my head to think about. This morning I was wondering if we see PSU locking things up Friday night or will we be seeing those posts where PSU blew it and have little chance of winning it if they don't clinch.
I've waited all year for this. Here is my annual contribution to next years lineup.
125 This
133 year
141 isn't
149 over
157 yet.
165 Enjoy
174 it
184 before
197 it's
285 gone.
I'll see you next year.
125 This
133 year
141 isn't
149 over
157 yet.
165 Enjoy
174 it
184 before
197 it's
285 gone.
I'll see you next year.
Facundo already shirted. He might be eligible for an Olympic shirt based on his freestyle world medals, if 2021 criteria are retained in 2024.
"Slightly worried" is fine. Nothing is written in stone, and Iowa has a very good team. Iowa should have all 10 weights qualified for the tournament, which is already one better than PSU. All 10 could also conceivably be AAs at their ceiling, although guys like Teske and Siebrecht are longshots, so the odds they actually have 10 AAs is virtually zero, but breaking it down, they have 2 favorites to win (Spencer and Woods), 2 more almost certain AAs (Cass and Kennedy). Then there is a tier of 3 who are very likely in the mix for AA (Murin, Assad, Warner) and a tier of three who could AA with a good run but probably not (Brands, Teske, Siebrecht). When you add all of that up, they will probably get 7 AAs (Spencer, Woods, Kennedy, Cass, 2 from the likely group, and 1 from the less likely group). That's a lot of points, especially for a second place team.
On the PSU side, we have 5 guys who are serious contenders for champs (RBY, Starocci, Brooks, Dean, Kerk) and a 6th who has an outside chance to win (Haines), but only Brooks and RBY are as strong of favorites as the two Iowa guys. We'll get a goose egg from 125 and qualify 9 weights. Outside of the 6 contenders, Bartlett and Facundo are a good bet for AA, SVN less so. So, the most likely outcome, lets say 4 champs (conservatively allowing for one or two contenders to falter) and 8 AAs, compared with expectations for 2 & 7 for Iowa. Given that Spencer is a bonus machine, it's conceivable that, if we underachieve just a little and they live up to their expectations or overachieve just a little bit, it could get a little too close for comfort. If we end up with 3 champs, 7 AAs, and a goose egg at 125 and they have 2 champs, 8 AAs, and maximum bonus points at 125, it's going to be tight, real tight.
Most likely, of course, it'll be a fairly comfortable win for PSU, especially considering that PSU is generally the overachiever in nationals, but it's not a certainty by any means.
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