2024

[BruceK-PSU83]

"Slightly worried" is fine. Nothing is written in stone, and Iowa has a very good team. Iowa should have all 10 weights qualified for the tournament, which is already one better than PSU. All 10 could also conceivably be AAs at their ceiling, although guys like Teske and Siebrecht are longshots, so the odds they actually have 10 AAs is virtually zero, but breaking it down, they have 2 favorites to win (Spencer and Woods), 2 more almost certain AAs (Cass and Kennedy). Then there is a tier of 3 who are very likely in the mix for AA (Murin, Assad, Warner) and a tier of three who could AA with a good run but probably not (Brands, Teske, Siebrecht). When you add all of that up, they will probably get 7 AAs (Spencer, Woods, Kennedy, Cass, 2 from the likely group, and 1 from the less likely group). That's a lot of points, especially for a second place team.

On the PSU side, we have 5 guys who are serious contenders for champs (RBY, Starocci, Brooks, Dean, Kerk) and a 6th who has an outside chance to win (Haines), but only Brooks and RBY are as strong of favorites as the two Iowa guys. We'll get a goose egg from 125 and qualify 9 weights. Outside of the 6 contenders, Bartlett and Facundo are a good bet for AA, SVN less so. So, the most likely outcome, lets say 4 champs (conservatively allowing for one or two contenders to falter) and 8 AAs, compared with expectations for 2 & 7 for Iowa. Given that Spencer is a bonus machine, it's conceivable that, if we underachieve just a little and they live up to their expectations or overachieve just a little bit, it could get a little too close for comfort. If we end up with 3 champs, 7 AAs, and a goose egg at 125 and they have 2 champs, 8 AAs, and maximum bonus points at 125, it's going to be tight, real tight.

Most likely, of course, it'll be a fairly comfortable win for PSU, especially considering that PSU is generally the overachiever in nationals, but it's not a certainty by any means.

I would not say that Facundo is a "good bet" to AA. It's certainly possible, but I would characterize his chances as "very questionable", with the following rationale.

[1] 165 is a very tough weight class
[2] Facundo has trouble scoring against the top guys. For him to advance, he'll have to win at least a few matches where a single TD, escape, or ride-out is the difference. Some guys can do it, but that's not a great recipe for a deep run.
[3] Adding to #2, Facundo has appeared rather disinclined to put a tough ride on any opponent that I can recall. That's not helpful when you'll be in a lot of close matches.

 

[82bordeaux]

I would not say that Facundo is a "good bet" to AA. It's certainly possible, but I would characterize his chances as "very questionable", with the following rationale.

[1] 165 is a very tough weight class
[2] Facundo has trouble scoring against the top guys. For him to advance, he'll have to win at least a few matches where a single TD, escape, or ride-out is the difference. Some guys can do it, but that's not a great recipe for a deep run.
[3] Adding to #2, Facundo has appeared rather disinclined to put a tough ride on any opponent that I can recall. That's not helpful when you'll be in a lot of close matches.

I 100% agree with you Bruce. I think to say Alex not AA'ing would be a bad tournament would not necessarily be true. He's a growing talent in the toughest weight. His performance this weekend is very important to him. If he can make the finals or get a 3rd, it sets him up for a decent seed. If he wins 2 on the front side in Tulsa I'd be pretty happy. Then he can try to make magic on the back.

That said, there are some things that tilt in his favor.

1. He has the best coaching and partners in the country
2. His style is a 2 edged sword. When you allow your opponent within a score of beating you, you are always in danger of going down. However, when he is within a score of his opponent, he is always capable of getting that late score.
3. He has a gas tank and he may be facing other guys that can't top their tank off come tournament time. (see #2)
4. Guys that know more than us (like David Taylor) have talked Alex up pretty well.
5. He needs to channel his inner Valvano. Survive and advance. If he gets through Thursday unscathed, I like his chances to make the magic happen.

 

[tullfan68]

I would not say that Facundo is a "good bet" to AA. It's certainly possible, but I would characterize his chances as "very questionable", with the following rationale.

[1] 165 is a very tough weight class
[2] Facundo has trouble scoring against the top guys. For him to advance, he'll have to win at least a few matches where a single TD, escape, or ride-out is the difference. Some guys can do it, but that's not a great recipe for a deep run.
[3] Adding to #2, Facundo has appeared rather disinclined to put a tough ride on any opponent that I can recall. That's not helpful when you'll be in a lot of close matches.

well the tops guys have trouble scoring on Facundo if he keeps it close he always has a chance!

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

I 100% agree with you Bruce. I think to say Alex not AA'ing would be a bad tournament would not necessarily be true. He's a growing talent in the toughest weight. His performance this weekend is very important to him. If he can make the finals or get a 3rd, it sets him up for a decent seed. If he wins 2 on the front side in Tulsa I'd be pretty happy. Then he can try to make magic on the back.

That said, there are some things that tilt in his favor.

1. He has the best coaching and partners in the country
2. His style is a 2 edged sword. When you allow your opponent within a score of beating you, you are always in danger of going down. However, when he is within a score of his opponent, he is always capable of getting that late score.
3. He has a gas tank and he may be facing other guys that can't top their tank off come tournament time. (see #2)
4. Guys that know more than us (like David Taylor) have talked Alex up pretty well.
5. He needs to channel his inner Valvano. Survive and advance. If he gets through Thursday unscathed, I like his chances to make the magic happen.

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You make a couple good points, particularly #3. The gas tank is a plus.

But about #2 - The guys who are best at winning close, low scoring matches usually are good at two things - getting out from bottom and putting a tough ride on the opponent when needed. Haven't seen much from Facundo to indicate he can do the latter.

 

[wrestlingmind]

You make a couple good points, particularly #3. The gas tank is a plus.

But about #2 - The guys who are best at winning close, low scoring matches usually are good at two things - getting out from bottom and putting a tough ride on the opponent when needed. Haven't seen much from Facundo to indicate he can do the latter.

Can't ride well, and you can't always rely on scrambling esp with a good finisher on leg attacks. You keep giving chances, and eventually the better guys WILL finish