The climate and the elite level of HS talent in California makes up for some of that. I think Franklin would be interested in the job. No idea if its enough for him to leave the great situation he has now.
And thus the CJF to USC rumors swirl
- Thread starter RTRMR
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The climate and the elite level of HS talent in California makes up for some of that. I think Franklin would be interested in the job. No idea if its enough for him to leave the great situation he has now.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Good point, but how much room for error does anyone in the B1G have? Lose more than once and you're out. I like my chances more against UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah (and champ. game against Washington, Oregon, or Stanford) than Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State in my division. Will be interesting to see what happens when there are maybe two undefeated teams and a bunch of one loss teams. If/when the CFP expands, Penn State's path becomes a lot easier IMO.
Weren’t they #3 of undefeated them, OU and LSU back in 03?
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anon_1eeb2b426hv3y
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He had me at English as a second language. What the heck was that? Nice of you not to take that bait.
Easy to assume UCS could throw a lot of money at any coaching hire. That’d be the biggest draw. But it could also be illusory. Hard to say how the new CA laws might impact that, or the impact of their own problems and scandals of late. As I understand it, the place has suffered a truly toxic environment.
Besides, given what CJF is making at PSU, it shouldn’t take long for $$ to become less of a concern or draw. And although a likely sleeping giant, would he really want to jump into another set of problems now that he’s righted this ship? I sure wouldn’t.
I don’t see CJF going anywhere soon.
Because it was still the BCS #1 vs #2 that mattered at that point, and the SEC and Big 12 equivalents were selected while USC was left out.
So, a PAC 12 champ and 1-loss USC could certainly be left at #5 in favor of second place OSU, PSU, UM, LSU, Bama, UGA, Texas, OU, ND, etc
I think he will be interested in it as a bargaining chip for himself, the assistants and upgrades. Other than that, I don't see it.
This thread should not be 7 pages long.
Of course not, but everybody has to rationalize why he wouldn't/shouldn't go. They're missing the simplest points a) USC first has to make an offer, which is hardly a given; and b) it's not what the posters think of how good that opportunity is, it's what Franklin (and his family) think.
Right. The AD being a mess right now, and the insane LA traffic and insane taxes might be enough to make him say "no thanks". But it would be a different environment and a big stage. Probably no comparison at all to a sold out Beaver Stadium environment.
Actually, there are only four Power Five teams in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Ohio, an area roughly two thirds the size of California. California also has four Power Five teams, but the entire PAC 12 and Notre Dame rapes California dry.
As far as the other four states you mentioned, Washington, Arizona, Utah, and Nevada, all four of those states together, which include a total of Five Power Five schools, only produces as much current NFL talent as the Big Ten state of Illinois.
There just isn't as much NFL caliber talent in the PAC 12 footprint, which of course includes California, as there is in the Big Ten footprint.
There is plenty of talent for USC to dominate in recruiting as well as any team in the country. USC has a stronghold on California's football talent and any decent coach can tap that talent with less effort than most any school has to for similar recruiting results. Look at Pete Carroll's results.
Can you imagine the endorsement deals that are going to be available to USC football players in the near future? It could be the most lucrative CFB endorsement deal market in the country.
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Why keep posting this crap time after time after time?
It’s total bullshit.....CJF is NOT leaving PSU for USC.
E V E R.
It’s total bullshit.....CJF is NOT leaving PSU for USC.
E V E R.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Penn State doesn’t just recruit against the schools in PA, NJ, and Ohio - they recruit against the entire east coast - including the SEC and Clemson, who are cleaning up with top recruits in our footprint. USC does not have the same amount of competition on the entire west coast.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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You’re up too?
Yep, currently waiting to board a flight in Austin, TX heading back to Chicagoland. Tough visit.....my Mom’s 92 and in nursing care.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Don't think he leaves but USC is a monster. Real simple: Recruiting base and HUGE media exposure. USC is the only blueblood program located in the middle of one of the top 3 media markets in the U.S. - NYC, Chicago, and L.A. With those 2 huge advantages, the USC job has Urban Meyer written all over it if he decides to return in 2020 and if USC wants his controversial personality with possible problems down the road. And Urban returning is still a big IF. But people are just kidding themselves if they think the USC job isn't appealing to 95% of CF coaches.
Midnighter, I understand what you are doing playing devils advocate here and I agree with your overall message that people who completely ignore the fact that there are other programs out there that may have just as much (or more) going for them as PSU are looking at life with blue tinted glasses. But, I will play devils advocate to your devils advocate.
You float the idea that USC is the premier program in CA and perhaps even the PAC 12, thus should be able to grab any recruit they want in their footprint. Well, I submit that PSU is the premier program in the entire area comprised of the states of PA, NJ, NY, MD, VA and the entire New England corridor. That area certainly puts us on par with the CA area that you think would be dominated by USC. Are we able to grab every single recruit we want from this area? Not really ... because we have competition from OSU, Michigan, ND, etc. etc.
You don't think there isn't any competition for USC with the Pac 12 schools, including one just a few miles from their campus? You don't think that Washington, Oregon (talk about facilities!!), Stanford, Utah, the AZ schools also recruit those CA kids? What about Oklahoma and even AL, Clemson, and OSU that will come into the state for the top talent? Recruiting is a tough, competitive battle everywhere. Nobody outside of Alabama and Clemson have it easy when it comes to recruiting
In summary, I think the differences between PSU and USC are mostly a wash (except for one factor below) ...
Money - PSU can match any financial package that USC would come up with - PSU consistently brings in more revenue than USC and this is likely to continue with the future TV contracts. This doesn't even take into consideration the significant differences in the state tax situation between CA and PA which mitigate any supposed differences. This wouldn't be like PSU trying to compete financially against a Alabama, Texas, or Texas A&M situation
Facilities - we may not be the best in our conference, but neither is USC (nobody will ever catch up to Oregon). We do have $70 million in improvements coming to the facilities soon. Where is USC from a facilities standpoint and what type of financial promises are they in position to commit to ... and how long would that take to see completed?
Recruiting - see above
Chances to win Natty - CJF arguably has PSU positioned as the second best program in the Big 10 and we are knocking on the door of the CFP this year and will probably be doing so again next year. USC is not that close ... Oregon, Washington, and Utah are all better programs than USC right now.
Lifestyle - this is the only area where there is a huge difference. Nobody here really knows the personal lifestyle preferences of CJF and his wife, including what they want for their daughters. In a way, this is the easiest factor for them to compare - either they like the laid back, quiet, rural atmosphere of State College and want to raise their daughters there ... or they would rather live in the urban environment with all the good (and not so good) things that come with southern CA. Nobody really knows ... those that reference quotes from CJF and Fumi about how much they like State College - get real, do you really think Fumi is going to come out and say she doesn't like the schools, the small population base, the lack of diversity, etc?
Who knows whether or not USC will even have an opening any time in the future and if they would have CJF on the top of their list. If the possibility of that would ever occur, I think the decision would be a quick one for CJF and his family - either they want to live in State College or in S Cal. Because everything else is more or less a wash.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Good post - agree, it's mostly a wash/personal preference. To me, as far as recruiting goes, it boils down to this: When was the last time PSU was #1 in the country in recruiting? Ki-Jana's class? Here is some data:
Using all of the available Rivals Recruiting data going back to 2002 (and through 2019) - which is 18 years, USC and PSU aren't even in the same stratosphere wrt recruiting. USC's average class ranking was 6; Penn State's was 27. USC had three classes that were not ranked in the Top Ten (twice finished 13th and once 19th); by contrast Penn State only *finished* in the Top Ten twice. USC had five #1 ranked classes (2015 the most recent), including three in a row and went 10 straight years without finishing lower than 8th. Penn State's 2003 class was ranked #92. Penn State has also had 10 classes (or more than half of the years covered) ranked outside the Top 20.
One more fact: According to Rivals, USC had 56 five star players from 2002 - 2019. Penn State had 9. In 2004, USC had 8 five star players in their recruiting class.
The elephants in the room for Penn State are a) Joe's 'dark years', b) the sanctions, and c) Ohio State (who is our primary recruiting rival and probably recruited better than USC over this same period of time). Even if you look at Franklin's stellar performance over the past five years, where he has *one* Top Ten finish, USC has three over that same period. Oregon is probably USC's biggest competition out west - in this same time frame, they only finished in the Top Ten twice, and have an average class rating of about 22. Most of their top players are guys USC passes on from California.
It's all totally speculative. But, USC is a premiere job - certainly the best on the entire West Coast when you consider all criteria. Recruiting isn't everything, but ask Saban if he prefers Michigan State to Alabama.
Good talk!
EDIT: Ran the numbers for Ohio State - they come in at an average recruiting ranking of about 10 (some really bad years from 2003 - 2011) noting they had seven consecutive top ten classes (2012 - 2018) and had 30 five star prospects from 2002 - 2019.
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How many of their 8 five star recruits from 2004 still have eligibility? That’s a fact that has no relevance. You could easily argue about JoePa’s success, and it means nothing today. It’s almost 2020, and USC hasn’t played for a natty in the playoff era, so they sit on equal ground as Penn State. The only recruiting ratings that matter are the players still on the team. And I’d put Penn State’s players ahead of them.
Is this year three or four of the Franklin is going to _________ discussion? And for the second year in a row we have a huge thread discussing USC, a job he hasn’t been offered or shown any inkling toward wanting. But by all means, let’s keep coming up with reasons why he would leave to take a job that hasn’t even opened up yet.
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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It deflates this idea that Penn State is at all close or on par with USC as a recruiting power. We aren't and haven't been for two decades. As recent as 2015, USC had the #1 class in the country. As far as 2008 goes, the bigger point is that of their 8 five star recruits, half were from CA, and only two were from east of the Mississippi. I think CJF has done a great job, and he's one of the best at discovering talent, but his job - at least as far as recruiting goes - is much easier at USC than Penn State. Sure, Clemson went into California this year to get the best QB in the country, but if USC had anyone with a pulse as a HC he's likely a Trojan.
Interestingly enough, since 2000 (two years before the Rivals Data) - Penn State is the 20th ranked winningest program, and USC is 6th (which is spot on to their average recruiting ranking).
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Unlike OB, I believe Franklin when he says he's happy at Penn State and is staying. What were his comments about USC last year?
"It's that time of year where all these types of things happen. We're focused on Maryland completely, 100 percent. I don't think it's fair or right to even be talking about that job. We're completely focused on Maryland."
Would that satisfy everyone this year after a potential OSU loss (noting Rutgers would be in place of Maryland)?
Devil's advocate.
1) PSU for 1/2 that time had Paterno in charge - the late years Paterno with a staff that didn't recruit with the energy that the positions called for.
2) For 1/2 that year - we didn't run people off like others did and had smaller classes which affected the rankings
3) For 1/4 of the time we were mired in the sanctions and the uncertainty surrounding it - combined with the smaller classes involved
4) 2 of our head coaches weren't big time recruiters (like Franklin).
To make this more 'fair' let's compare classes since 2015 (post sanctions)
1) 2015 - USC - 2nd (28 commits) (92.38 Avg Recruit) - PSU - 15th (25 commits) (89.05 Avg Recruit)
2) 2016 - USC - 10th (21 Commits) (91 Avg Recruit) - PSU - 20th (20 commits) (88.08 Avg Recruit)
3) 2017 - USC - 4th (24 Commits) (91.93 Avg Recruit)- PSU - 15th (22 Commits) (88.32 Avg Recruit)
4) 2018 - USC - 4th (18 Commits) (94.23 Avg Recruit) - PSU - 6th (23 Commits) (91.70 Avg Recruit)
5) 2019 - USC - 20th (25 Commits) (88.21 Avg Recruit)- PSU -12th (23 Commits) (91.01 Avg Recruit)
6) *2020 -USC - 64th (11 Commits) (86.38 Avg Recruit) - PSU 11th - (88.88 Avg Recruit)
Looking at this data
2015 - PSU was still coming out of sanctions - but wasn't far of
2016/2017 - USC was better recruiting wise but not lights out better
2018 (the 1st class that benefited from our resurgence (as 2017 class was essentially complete) - it is basically a wash - though the average rating is a lot better (if they took more recruits that could come down)
2019 - PSU had a clearly better class
2020 - number of recruits isn't close - but even assuming 11 more 4*s joining - doubtful they pass PSU.
Since 2015 PSU has essentially been even with USC recruiting
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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What do you think USC's recruiting will look like if someone like Franklin or Meyer were the HC?
Also, nice job.
The fact that this post now is 7 pages into it with replies gives me grave concern about the mental health of this board's denizens.
I called Franklin to tell him the Coliseum sucks and he wouldn’t like living here.
Honestly not much better. From 2015-2018 - they were essentially as good as they could get (I realize they weren't #1 - but the difference between top 5 and #1 is minimal).
People keep referring to to Pete Carroll and his dominance - but this is a different era. When he coached, conference networks weren't the norm. Every game wasn't televised nationally like it is now. yes - many were (especially in the BIG) - but not not so much in other conferences.
Today a recruit from California can play at Duke and his parents can watch every game fairly easily. Each decade you see more and more teams recruiting nationally, making it much harder to lock down an area.
I think if they keep Helton - their recruiting will be mediocre and thus create a stagnation - but if they hire a top coach - will be back in the top 5 in no time.
I think It also depends on WHO they hire. California is in many ways a different country from the rest of the country. Pete excelled because he fit the laid back style/etc. Nick Saban would probably struggle there. I put Meyer closer to Saban than to Carroll as far as personality. Franklin would be a solid fit for the culture with his personality and would probably do better than Meyer in that type of environment.
Maybe, maybe not. It will be very interesting to see how the endorsement thing shakes out. Rutgres board was speculating on it as well, hoping they could lure recruits with NYC metro endorsements.
But I wonder....how much does a star QB at USC even move the needle in a town dominated by Tinseltown and pro sports?
Does a star tailback at Rutgres (even if they magically get good) get recognized standing in Times Square?
You keep using USCs best decade in 40 years (and forfeited a natty for cheating) in comparison to PSU's worst. Big f'n deal that USC was 1st in 2015. PSU was 5th in 2017 and Franklin is taking the program to elite level status. I fully believe he'll consistently recruit top ten w/ top 5-1 sprinkled in.
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