BIG TEN Pre-Seeds Announced

[McScoreley]

Honestly looking at Willie's analysis .... is it actually possible for Robbie to get an at large? There's 7 spots. Let's say 2 are in front of Robbie in line from the B1G (since he's 11 and 8 qualify) are ahead of Robbie in line. Assuming Shawver, Moran and Spence doesn't bust the bracket. There's 5 more. Robbie is 27 in coaches ranking.

This is where that mini tournament would help a ton. Even if there aren't official spots ... Robbie proving he's 9th in the B1G could help him make his case.

 

[IANit]

My only issue is that sometimes the body of work in past years is taken into account, and other times it is not. In this shortened season, the coaches should take more into account than 5-7 matches when more information is available. Romero has a body of work from last year to fall back on as a reference point. Generally in a bracket of 16 or less, the 1-5 seeds are the most critical. I'm not diminishing Washington's season or ability, but IMO when 2 wrestlers are close with very limited data points, those seeding should A; look back on prior years for data and B; use experience to determine who deserves to be seeded higher. That is what they did in the same weight class to discern Kemerer vs. Labriola. Based on the 2021 data, Labriola is more deserving of the 1 seed. But when you factor in A and B, he is not. So I say be consistent throughout the entire bracket.
Otherwise, have a computer program seed everyone. But an excellent argument can be made for either side. So in retrospect, saying the seeding was terrible was an overstatement on my part. I think it could have been improved, but not terrible.

The only things that work in Labriola's favor are more matches wrestled and whether you believe Kemerer was ducking him. Labriola's best win is over Washington (#16 Wrestlestat). He had one other win over a top 50 opponent. Kemerer's best win is over #6 Romero. None of his opponents were outside of the top 50. Labriola decisioned Kemerer's backup (ranked #92 now with a 2-1 record), a freshman who was wrestling his first match, 7-4. Labriola can only beat who's in front of him, of course.

Unless you're talking freshmen I think you'd have to look at last year's results when in doubt. Rarely do top wrestlers get a lot worse from year to year. Occasionally someone will go from mediocre to practically unbeatable, but that's the exception. Kemerer is much more accomplished at this level.

 

[1032004]

He doesn't have a win over a wrestler with a win. I think the 12 or 13 would be correct. Streck's only win is against Kappes too. Seeds aren't predictions. They're earned based on results.

Keep in mind he was also 9-0 last year, including a win over Lewis Fernandes who beat several of last year’s NQ’s.

Last year is definitely a factor. Otherwise Marinelli should be seeded behind Braunagel.

I think Kerk should’ve been at 8, but I think 7 is understandable. 12 or 13 is a joke. All the guys after Orndorff haven’t “earned” squat other than maybe getting 1 win against each other.

 

[1032004]

I guess Willie's post had something to do with Kemerer "ducking" Labriola.

This, but I’m not guessing

 

[west2east]

Honestly looking at Willie's analysis .... is it actually possible for Robbie to get an at large? There's 7 spots. Let's say 2 are in front of Robbie in line from the B1G (since he's 11 and 8 qualify) are ahead of Robbie in line. Assuming Shawver, Moran and Spence doesn't bust the bracket. There's 5 more. Robbie is 27 in coaches ranking.

This is where that mini tournament would help a ton. Even if there aren't official spots ... Robbie proving he's 9th in the B1G could help him make his case.

Yes it's possible if everything goes chalk this weekend I could see Robbie being the 5th or 6th guy in

 

[GogglesPaizano]

Honestly looking at Willie's analysis .... is it actually possible for Robbie to get an at large? There's 7 spots. Let's say 2 are in front of Robbie in line from the B1G (since he's 11 and 8 qualify) are ahead of Robbie in line. Assuming Shawver, Moran and Spence doesn't bust the bracket. There's 5 more. Robbie is 27 in coaches ranking.

This is where that mini tournament would help a ton. Even if there aren't official spots ... Robbie proving he's 9th in the B1G could help him make his case.

How about Robbie just goes out, wins a few and finishes in the top 7? I think he has the talent. He was just getting started when he hit Malik the first time. Cael said he didn't have much time in the room yet. Am I the only homer that thinks he has a shot taking him out, and if he doesn't he takes care of business on the back side.

 

[a_mshaffer]

How about Robbie just goes out, wins a few and finishes in the top 7? I think he has the talent. He was just getting started when he hit Malik the first time. Cael said he didn't have much time in the room yet. Am I the only homer that thinks he has a shot taking him out, and if he doesn't he takes care of business on the back side.

do enough for a Natty warm up!

 

[McScoreley]

How about Robbie just goes out, wins a few and finishes in the top 7? I think he has the talent. He was just getting started when he hit Malik the first time. Cael said he didn't have much time in the room yet. Am I the only homer that thinks he has a shot taking him out, and if he doesn't he takes care of business on the back side.

I like that scenario! (He just needs 8th though but obviously making the semis, AKA beating Heinselman, would allow him into the Top 6)

 

[nitlion6]

He can challenge the seed, not sure when the coaches' meeting is. I like Willie's idea the best, I think Kerkvliet at 13 is the right move. Don't punish either Cass or Parris by making them meet him before semis. Kerkvliet is on Gable's path as a result of missing the season but not until Semis.

Kerkvliet is on a path to wrestle Stevenson in the finals.

 

[nitlion6]

How about Robbie just goes out, wins a few and finishes in the top 7? I think he has the talent. He was just getting started when he hit Malik the first time. Cael said he didn't have much time in the room yet. Am I the only homer that thinks he has a shot taking him out, and if he doesn't he takes care of business on the back side.

You are not the only one who believes that.

 

[7brwnpsu]

Heinselman has had a good year and a good jump from previous years. Robbie lost 5-2 in the dual, close but I think Heinselman was in control. On Saturday, If Robbie wins or is competitive in the match, he will be at the NCAAs and podium hunting. The results of the second round match (rematch) will indicate to me that Robbie is done worrying about a prior injury, in the interim Robbie has gotten in better conditioning and Casey as the lightweight coach has brought him to be a more complete college wrestler who will be a bigger threat. It will be a good match this time around.

 

[donboy6499]

The only things that work in Labriola's favor are more matches wrestled and whether you believe Kemerer was ducking him. Labriola's best win is over Washington (#16 Wrestlestat). He had one other win over a top 50 opponent. Kemerer's best win is over #6 Romero. None of his opponents were outside of the top 50. Labriola decisioned Kemerer's backup (ranked #92 now with a 2-1 record), a freshman who was wrestling his first match, 7-4. Labriola can only beat who's in front of him, of course.

Unless you're talking freshmen I think you'd have to look at last year's results when in doubt. Rarely do top wrestlers get a lot worse from year to year. Occasionally someone will go from mediocre to practically unbeatable, but that's the exception. Kemerer is much more accomplished at this level.

Hard to beat someone better than #16 on Wrestlestat when he doesn't come to center to wrestle you.

 

[IANit]

Hard to beat someone better than #16 on Wrestlestat when he doesn't come to center to wrestle you.

True, but if he's really ducking him and wasn't injured that should be exposed at Big Tens. Iowa wrestlers are usually up for a challenge IMO. Ducking to protect seeds a la Ohio State isn't their style.

 

[donboy6499]

True, but if he's really ducking him and wasn't injured that should be exposed at Big Tens. Iowa wrestlers are usually up for a challenge IMO. Ducking to protect seeds a la Ohio State isn't their style.

Either way, it can't be ignored. We wonder why there is ducking, it's because to this point, no one gets punished for doing it.

 

[IANit]

Either way, it can't be ignored. We wonder why there is ducking, it's because to this point, no one gets punished for doing it.

How punished is the 2nd seed, where you apparently want to slot him? Massa is #4 in the seeds, but #2 nationally. Starocci is #5 nationally, but number 3 in the seeds. You'd think, in theory, that Starocci would be the easier out. So Kemerer is "rewarded" with having to face #2 at his weight in the semis if both make it. I think Starocci wins the whole thing, so the #1 vs. #2 seed's going to be irrelevant.

 

[nitlion6]

How punished is the 2nd seed, where you apparently want to slot him? Massa is #4 in the seeds, but #2 nationally. Starocci is #5 nationally, but number 3 in the seeds. You'd think, in theory, that Starocci would be the easier out. So Kemerer is "rewarded" with having to face #2 at his weight in the semis if both make it. I think Starocci wins the whole thing, so the #1 vs. #2 seed's going to be irrelevant.

The team race is going to be much more competitive than anybody was thinking just 3 weeks ago. If PSU outscores Iowa at 174 PSU will be collecting another Big10 championship.

 

[donboy6499]

How punished is the 2nd seed, where you apparently want to slot him? Massa is #4 in the seeds, but #2 nationally. Starocci is #5 nationally, but number 3 in the seeds. You'd think, in theory, that Starocci would be the easier out. So Kemerer is "rewarded" with having to face #2 at his weight in the semis if both make it. I think Starocci wins the whole thing, so the #1 vs. #2 seed's going to be irrelevant.

If it is not punished much, then he shouldn't mind being there.

The downside to making him 2 is limited. The upside at least gives the impression that wrestling your matches matters, an impression that is dying every year anymore.

If he was hurt, you say it will show at Big 10/nationals. Well if he was hurt, it should be reflected in his seed. Cuts both ways.

 

[ss7]

How punished is the 2nd seed, where you apparently want to slot him? Massa is #4 in the seeds, but #2 nationally. Starocci is #5 nationally, but number 3 in the seeds. You'd think, in theory, that Starocci would be the easier out. So Kemerer is "rewarded" with having to face #2 at his weight in the semis if both make it. I think Starocci wins the whole thing, so the #1 vs. #2 seed's going to be irrelevant.

Who has Logan Massa ranked #2?

 

[82bordeaux]

Who has Logan Massa ranked #2?

WrestleStat

 

[nitlion6]

Who has Logan Massa ranked #2?

I don't know of anybody but Flo has a precedent for arbitrarily dismissing a loss and ranking a kid as though the loss never occurred. So who knows?

 

[IANit]

If it is not punished much, then he shouldn't mind being there.

The downside to making him 2 is limited. The upside at least gives the impression that wrestling your matches matters, an impression that is dying every year anymore.

If he was hurt, you say it will show at Big 10/nationals. Well if he was hurt, it should be reflected in his seed. Cuts both ways.

I'm saying if he wasn't hurt and was indeed ducking, he'll be exposed.

 

[ZepGraffiti]

How punished is the 2nd seed, where you apparently want to slot him? Massa is #4 in the seeds, but #2 nationally. Starocci is #5 nationally, but number 3 in the seeds. You'd think, in theory, that Starocci would be the easier out. So Kemerer is "rewarded" with having to face #2 at his weight in the semis if both make it. I think Starocci wins the whole thing, so the #1 vs. #2 seed's going to be irrelevant.

Maybe a backfire?, at the time of the Neb dual, we were looking at Kem #1 and Labs/Massa in the 2/3 spots. So Kem was looking at DWash/Romero/CStar as potential semi opp.... IF Labs somehow wins, then Kem assumingly gets a Massa semi.
With that said, I'm not ready to call Kem out. He probably wasn't quite 'right'. I just wish teams across the board would be a little less cautious in sending out their best. It would help.

 

[Grass]

Hard to beat someone better than #16 on Wrestlestat when he doesn't come to center to wrestle you.

Case and point Heinselman sitting against Lee.

 

[donboy6499]

Case and point Heinselman sitting against Lee.

Yep.

Injured or ducking, not treating missed matches as though they are losses at seeding time just promises to perpetuate guys missing matches against other top wrestlers.

 

[jmadden1998]

The team race is going to be much more competitive than anybody was thinking just 3 weeks ago. If PSU outscores Iowa at 174 PSU will be collecting another Big10 championship.

 

[donboy6499]

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You good?

 

[jmadden1998]

You good?

 

[diggerpup]

Who has the edge?
Iowa ?
Penn State ?


It’s that time of year to review math influence on tournament team scores.

The more stable lineup across all ten weights usually has the edge at the Big Ten tourney.

Whereas the lineup that has the most finalists often has the edge at NCAAs.

Why ?

In a conference tourney, the 3rd/4th/5th place guys earn huge team points. But those same wrestlers are often R12 guys at NCAAs and their point earning contributions often evaporate.

 

[IANit]

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Iowa under Brands tends to peak at Big Tens, so I expect them to win this weekend. Cael traditionally seems to treat the Big Tens as a warmup for NCAAs. History says that Iowa will underperform at NCAAs while PSU will overperform. Iowa probably has enough scorers that they'll win it all this year (assuming no Covid positives), but this is probably their last best gasp for a while.

 

[82bordeaux]

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Hawks on March 7th...to Hawks on March 20th...

 

[RoarLions1]

jto, I believe this language is not true. At weights where the BIG gets 8 spots there will be a wrestle off to determine 9th place because one of the criteria for an at large spot is finishing within 1 pace of an auto qualifier. Someone correct me if that is no longer true.

Note, all 10 of this year’s weight classes have 8 or fewer automatic qualifiers. This means there will be no extra bouts beyond the normal consolation brackets that help make college wrestling the best version of this great sport.

It also means that if you lose in the Bloodround (designated as R12 on the following charts), just like at Nationals, your tourney is over, along with your hopes for a continued postseason.

Interesting guess here, Nova: that the conference tournament might create additional 9th-place bouts to prepare for a use case related to the at-large qualifier process for the National tourney.

Let's keep an eye out on it.

The Big Ten will have bonus matches for at least those weights with an allocation of 8 (1 AQ + 7 pre-allocation) if the process of the recent past is used. It's the only way to get to a 9th place finisher, and we have not heard otherwise.
This includes; 125, 133, 141, 157, 165, 174, and 184 for this year. Bonus bouts at B1G's started when Nebraska joined the conference, I believe.

 

[jmadden1998]

Hawks on March 7th...to Hawks on March 20th...

 

[82bordeaux]

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[jtothemfp]

The Big Ten will have bonus matches for at least those weights with an allocation of 8 (1 AQ + 7 pre-allocation) if the process of the recent past is used. It's the only way to get to a 9th place finisher, and we have not heard otherwise.
This includes; 125, 133, 141, 157, 165, 174, and 184 for this year. Bonus bouts at B1G's started when Nebraska joined the conference, I believe.

Interesting, thanks, Roar & Nova!

Not sure how I never noticed a true 9th bracket being competed even when there were only 8 spots. I certainly remember them occurring, when there were 9 or 10 spots! It also didn't help my condition, when all the final brackets I looked at from 2020 back to 2017, show only top-8 brackets and no 9th place brackets, but this is life on the internet.

Thanks for teaching me, ole friendos!

 

[Used2BEerie]

Most of us be like....

The other most of us be like...

 

[RoarLions1]

Interesting, thanks, Roar & Nova!

Not sure how I never noticed a true 9th bracket being competed even when there were only 8 spots. I certainly remember them occurring, when there were 9 or 10 spots! It also didn't help my condition, when all the final brackets I looked at from 2020 back to 2017, show only top-8 brackets and no 9th place brackets, but this is life on the internet.

Thanks for teaching me, ole friendos!

I wish they would add the bonus matches to the bottom of the bracket sheet for each weight. Btw, the bonus matches are not team scoring bouts, no advancement, no bonus points.

EDIT: I found one year where they included the bonus bouts - 2014. It's at the end of the pages in the linked document.

Big Ten Conference

The official athletics website for Big Ten Conference

bigten.org

 

[Lovethissport]

I have to admit I am a bit worried about Lee v Rivera in semi. I actually think Lee matches up better with Eierman...but since Nick is two seed and Seabass the 3, he will have to get by Rivera for a shot at Eierman. A few years ago Rivera beat Spenser Lee (admittedly a freshman Spenser Lee) twice including in the Big Finals. He beat RBY last year. He won this tournament twice before. I know Rutgers does not have the competition in the room that Nick is facing or the coaching, but I would be more comfortable if the duals with Iowa and Rutgers had not been canceled and Nick had a chance to face these two Earlier and make any necessary Adjustments. Nick seems on a mission this year...but he will for sure have to earn it against some very good wrestlers.

 

[NoVaLion2]

I have to admit I am a bit worried about Lee v Rivera in semi. I actually think Lee matches up better with Eierman...but since Nick is two seed and Seabass the 3, he will have to get by Rivera for a shot at Eierman. A few years ago Rivera beat Spenser Lee (admittedly a freshman Spenser Lee) twice inclusing in the Big Finals. He beat RBY last year. He won this tournament twice before. I know Rutgers does not have the competition in the room that Nick is facing or the coaching, but I would be more comfortable if the duals with Iowa and Rutgers had not been canceled and Nick had a chance to face these two Earlier and make any necessary Adjustments. Nick seems on a mission this year...but he will for sure have to earn it against some very good wrestlers.

I'm looking forward to him beating both of those guys.

 

[Hoosier Lion]

I have to admit I am a bit worried about Lee v Rivera in semi. I actually think Lee matches up better with Eierman...but since Nick is two seed and Seabass the 3, he will have to get by Rivera for a shot at Eierman. A few years ago Rivera beat Spenser Lee (admittedly a freshman Spenser Lee) twice inclusing in the Big Finals. He beat RBY last year. He won this tournament twice before. I know Rutgers does not have the competition in the room that Nick is facing or the coaching, but I would be more comfortable if the duals with Iowa and Rutgers had not been canceled and Nick had a chance to face these two Earlier and make any necessary Adjustments. Nick seems on a mission this year...but he will for sure have to earn it against some very good wrestlers.

RELAX

 

[RoarLions1]

Be grateful and thankful they are wrestling.