As much as I want to believe that, Young is not exactly ranked at his ceiling, and Lugo is not wrestling like the guy we saw last year. 149 is wide open, and so Lugo is very much in the conversation for huge points -- which could more than make up for any unexpected deficiencies from Young.
I'll grant that 197 is a wild card, as the winner of Warner vs. "Warnerov" is anyone's guess . . . but so is Rasheed's health and conditioning.
Psychology at NCAAs is going to be as critical as I can ever remember.
I'll take Brayton Lee and Sasso over Lugo right now, for starters. Warner is talented but SO inconsistent it's easy to see him losing early. There are a ton of guys who could take out Young.
Iowa is the clear favorite as of today, but it's FAR from a foregone conclusion because so many of their guys are ranked higher than their likely final placing, IMO.