As the stomach turns (as the world turns) on a dime you could end up being right. Expansion is a chaotic thing where the ACC is concerned.
Lets Talk Big 10 Expansion
- Thread starter PSU4U
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If that southeast expansion of FSU, Clemson, UNC, VA happens as you indicate, that entices ND to join the Big Ten without a doubt.. I would tend to believe that at least one other West Coast team must come in for balance (likely Stanford.) And I agree with you that Clemson is a very valuable addition. The television ratings certainly verify that to be true, and I agree wholeheartedly that they are the Oregon of that group. In terms of the business of football revenue, it is vital that the Conference expands into the Carolinas and Florida.
No need to worry about shares and partials currently. This is network driven. If the networks want 2-24 team leagues, that is what we will end up with. Will it be sustainable? No idea. Will it have a record 1st deal? Most definitely.
Honestly, who ends up where is probably irrelevant. They will all be lumped together when it's said and done.
Honestly, who ends up where is probably irrelevant. They will all be lumped together when it's said and done.
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I feel like the western team would be Arizona or Colorado. Stanford maybe if ND USC and UCLA fight for them but they add less than nothing.
No need to take UVA.
Take UNC, FSU, Clemson and the ACC is done football wise. ND would have to jump as team 4.
There’s no need to take UVA or Stanford and have them both lose money for the conference with decreased per team payouts.
I really cannot see the Big Ten taking Clemson. And I think they absolutely would take UVA with the correct other schools.
If you take Clemson now, you are "buying high" on a school that really doesn't have that great a history/tradition and in a relatively smaller state and with relatively weaker academics.
True, Clemson is a relatively recent ‘power’ although they did with the MNC in 1981 IIRC. Despite all that, they are still infinitely better than anything UVA can offer (athletic department wise). UVA has no history, no tradition, and most people in Virginia don’t give a duck fart about UVA. They are another Rutgers addition to the conference.
If the university presidents are so fixated on Stanford and Virginia academic reputations, then offer them CIC status academically like the U of Chicago had until 2016. Both are athletic revenue liabilities to the conference (that has a fair share of them already).
All the Big 10 eastern schools want UVA including OSU MI and MSU. They all have large alumni populations in the state and love to recruit there. OR failed on the 1st two votes to get into the Big 10. Then FOX stepped in with some extra money and some promises down the road to the schools (eastern) who kept voting no but eventually made it unanimous. On this next round of expansion, the mentioned schools will be given a lot of sway/authority. If UVA wants in they will probably get in, just saying.
Yep. But imagine UVA and GT with all that newfound money and the Big 10 and FOX marketing for them. It absolutely will make a big difference for both programs. Raiding a conference from a business perspective is a little like raiding a company. You know you're going to make it into something better.
I would like to see UVA in the conference to cement more of an Eastern footprint, but money doesn’t always equate to success. Imagine adding a school from the largest media market in the nation surrounded by solid quality high school football talent and injecting them with massive amounts of new revenue. Well, Rutgers is still Rutgres!
UVA and Ga Tech make way more sense than Clemson...and probably FSU
UVa playing Oregon, Washington, USC, Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State is slightly different than the ACC schedule. They're a bad team that won 3 games and didn't play FSU or Clemson. When 9 of your games are on The CW, ACCN, ESPNU and FS1 what do you think the ratings are going to be? Add to that...one of their ESPN games was a Friday night. Surprised they were that high. What ratings did they pull against Tennessee and L'ville?
Rutgers and UVA have nothing in common relative to expansion. But I couldn't agree more than your assessment on Rutgers and money hasn't helped that much but then we are talking about NJ whose state tree is the orange highway cone.I would like to see UVA in the conference to cement more of an Eastern footprint, but money doesn’t always equate to success. Imagine adding a school from the largest media market in the nation surrounded by solid quality high school football talent and injecting them with massive amounts of new revenue. Well, Rutgers is still Rutgres!
I guess it truly depends on who is pushing for it and why.
If it's academics and research, you probably go for UVA.
If it's football only, it's Tech in a landslide.
Again, I reiterate: current #s don't matter. Teams will be taken from every available market until the set # is reached. This is not the same "x moves the needle more than y" that it once was.
I’m not sure I agree that current numbers don’t matter. That is not what we have seen in Conference realignment over the last couple years. It’s all about TV revenue today to get into the SEC and B1G. The least valuable addition to the two conferences was UCLA at 2023 1.25M avg viewership but the rest were in the $2M-$3m ranges. Most of the ACC ranges from putrid to fair tv ratings. 2023 tv rating rank and avg viewership - #58 Virginia — 663K, #73 Virginia Tech — 398K. There is no network that will pay SEC or Big Ten revenue to those two schools. Those two schools are primarily the reason why FSU and Clemson want to leave the ACC. FSU and Clemson directly subsidize the revenue of those two schools. For reference FSU is #7 at 3.58M and Clemson is 22 at 1.70M. PSU is #9 at 3.31M despite having an ultimately disappointing season.
Let's not forget how dominoes fall.
Jim Delany tried his darnedest to break into Texas and the south in the early 10s. Hoped that destabilizing the Big 12 by wresting Nebraska away and the ACC by snagging Maryland would eventually get him the biggest prizes (UT and TAMU from the old Big 12 and UNC/FSU/more? from the ACC). ESPN had a bigger wallet though...they threw the idiotic Longhorn Network at Texas to keep them in the Big12 and promised the ACC it's own network and hoodwinked them into signing a ludicrous 20 year grant of rights.
Kevin Warren--in a far more volatile conference climate--dislodged USC and UCLA for a good price...and then got UW and Oregon for a great price...and the rest of the Pac-12 crumbled. He followed Delany's model, but ESPN didn't have the money or motive to save West Coast football.
I bring that up because...you don't take UVA or Georgia Tech or Miami today, if you're the Big Ten.
You're fishing for UNC and FSU. Period.
The league is doomed if it loses those two. Then you can get other teams at a bargain auction with the SEC, if you want them. Faced with a sinking ship ACC or bargain offer to a Power 2 conference...any school would choose the latter.
Jim Delany tried his darnedest to break into Texas and the south in the early 10s. Hoped that destabilizing the Big 12 by wresting Nebraska away and the ACC by snagging Maryland would eventually get him the biggest prizes (UT and TAMU from the old Big 12 and UNC/FSU/more? from the ACC). ESPN had a bigger wallet though...they threw the idiotic Longhorn Network at Texas to keep them in the Big12 and promised the ACC it's own network and hoodwinked them into signing a ludicrous 20 year grant of rights.
Kevin Warren--in a far more volatile conference climate--dislodged USC and UCLA for a good price...and then got UW and Oregon for a great price...and the rest of the Pac-12 crumbled. He followed Delany's model, but ESPN didn't have the money or motive to save West Coast football.
I bring that up because...you don't take UVA or Georgia Tech or Miami today, if you're the Big Ten.
You're fishing for UNC and FSU. Period.
The league is doomed if it loses those two. Then you can get other teams at a bargain auction with the SEC, if you want them. Faced with a sinking ship ACC or bargain offer to a Power 2 conference...any school would choose the latter.
We (B1G) get FSU and the SEC gets Clemson at full price to crack it all wide open. UNC is a dogfight and likely comes down to which conference is willing to take NC State as well. The losing conference in the UNC auction then slightly overpays for Duke and Miami but still at a partial share of some sort. We likely pull in GT and UVA at 25-50% and the SEC probably does the same with VT. I think something funky could happen with either BC (ton of B1G alum up there and a large market) or Stanford (the college presidents darling) at small partial shares to get to 24 if ND stays independent. I think the concept of partial shares for marginal schools like UVA goes permanent partial to make the economics work longterm.
Hopefully the SEC and Big Ten just merge and they agree to fill enough spots to get to 48. It makes more sense.
I understand that and agree, but if networks are pushing this, they are looking for a set # of teams to create schedules and fill air time. The teams who offer value are getting low now and with the current alignment, it's going to be very tough for anybody not in the Big 2 conferences to produce bigger ratings now because TV deals aren't slanted towards them. They aren't getting hyped on the morning pregame shows without starting 5-0 or having a transcendent player.
I don't think the conferences desire to expand further without known compensation.
Both FSU and Clemson could go SEC unless the Big 2 are planning this out together. B10 commish better be on his game vs Sankey but they may plan this out together. If FSU and Clemson go SEC then the Big Ten has to get UNC and then who knows because there are no football powers left at that point. Even UNC is not attractive from a football perspective.
I'm glad you mentioned these things. Delaney is still active and is a major consultant to the Big 10. He was also a Consultant to FSU and Clemson then Clemson changed to a NY firm when they were trying to get into the SEC.
Delaney just last year visited ND trying to give it one last try to lore ND to the Big 10. Also, Bubba Cunningham AD at UNC and Delaney are long time Pals and talk about realignment often. Delaney is a UNC Alum and has been on Bubba and the past president like wallpaper for the Big 10. Good Ole Bubba is a southern and ACC loyalist but you never know what might happen there. Bubba Cunningham probably has as much influence in the ACC as anyone.
UNC is and always has been the heart and soul of the ACC and where UNC goes there goes the conference so to speak. Imagine how it would look for the conference if UNC just up and left it all behind for greener-$ pastures. Phillips is in NC as is Conference offices and most of their legal eagles are based there. Not a good look if UNC ups and leaves. Perception matters and that would be a dagger to the heart of Phillips (who is an ESPN Lacky) and the ACC. We dodged a big bullet by taking Petitti over Phillips who doesn't appear to be all that bright but if nothing else is loyal to who butters his bread.
On VA GT and Miami. VA and GT are in a different lifeboat than Miami. Miami is in a catch 22 situation. FOX actually wants them and has told them they want them, but the votes are not there for Miami. They are in a similar situation to what Stanford was in but in reverse. The presidents desperately wanted Stanford, but FOX wouldn't pay for them. Fox wants Miami but the votes just aren't there and enough of those presidents seem to be willing to play hardball on that one. My personal feeling is they will both eventually get in as FOX and the presidents work out a deal. The OR invite matters here IMO. FOX couldn't get OR in on the first two votes. FOX offered something to swing those eastern votes to get OR in. On VA and GT, they have big longtime potential, and the Atlanta market is huge for GT where FOX is concerned. GT has that going for it and the presidents love GT. GT was the very first expansion offer Delaney made and he did so twice. Delaney offered GT before he offered UNC or VA. To my knowledge ND is the only other school to have more offers to the Big 10 than GT or Texas for that matter. Obviously, ND has a standing offer which I absolutely hate but I understand the economics of that. Damn it.
In a last-ditch situation NCS could come into play. UNC is so valued by both FOX and the Big 10 that both may be willing to take NCS if need be. However, my understanding at this time if UNC had to make a decision today, they would most likely be off the SEC.
On this whole ACC school's thing you can't just look at what is happening for these schools today and have a recency bias. FOX isn't necessarily looking at what is going on today in every case but is looking at a business model 10-20 years out. These things are long term investments.
FOX and the presidents may want said schools for different reasons but obviously money is the common denominator. To the presidents' things like education research cash flow and relationships still matter. So, in some cases, perhaps there will be some horse trading going on between the presidents and FOX and Fox really played hardball on Stanford but got OR so the thing on Stanford may not be dead yet. Just saying.
It will be fun to see how this all turns out and for any of us it probably won't be exactly as we currently think.
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I still think everyone is overselling FSU and Clemson and the SEC's interest. We'd also get ND so we dont need another "football power"...neither conference does. They need teams to fill tv slots and make it officially 2 conference league.
This is about killing everyone not included
It’s difficult for me to
Imagine any plausible scenario where Notre Dame doesn’t end-up joining the Big 10 at some point!
Imagine any plausible scenario where Notre Dame doesn’t end-up joining the Big 10 at some point!
The SEC is said to have no interest in Clemson because there would be almost no gain for the SEC/ESPN in the state of South Carolina. They already have the state covered with USCe who is in Columbia. They would/might be willing to take FSU but as of now the votes aren't there and might not be there plus, they already have that state covered with the U of Fla. Both the SEC/ESPN and the Big 10/FOX want to add states they are not already in.
IMO Syracuse and BC will both be a tough sell even to the Big 12 and even at bargain basement prices. I think it's unfortunate for both of them.
I think the best candidates to the Big 12 if they can get a couple of them would be sPitt VT NCS GT Miami and Louisville. sPitt and Louisville might be their only locks at this point. For NCS it probably depends on what happens with UNC and how that instate political crap gets handled. Having said that UNC is as good as gone to where remains to be seen. For sure some universities are going to get left behind and that's the sad part.
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Definitely markets are important. UVA, UNC, GaTech, and Mia have big markets and are AAU. FSU and Clemson don’t and aren’t.
Problem is there are claimed markets and then there are real markets.
Sort of like how Rutgres was supposed to bring in the NYC market when no one in NYC cared about Rutgers.
Georgia Tech is a Rutgres repeat. They may be in Atlanta, but Atlanta is a UGA bulldog market and it’s not even close. They are guaranteed to lose the conference money.
Same with UVA and Stanford. Great academic institutions but no one is judging engineering or philosophy departments here. This is strictly sports viewership related, predominantly football, and Stanford/ UVA are guaranteed liabilities to the conference.
The problem with partial shares is that eventually they become full shares so the problem hasn’t gone away. It’s just delayed but it will hit eventually.
Any conference built on a 2 (or more) tier system where all schools aren’t making the same (post buy in) is doomed to fail in the long run. If you’re making deals for school X to only get 35% (or whatever) in perpetuity then why are you even inviting them? They clearly don’t bring the value and your just sowing long term seeds of disgruntled conference members.
Both FSU and Clemson would bring the tv money with future matchups (FSU vs Alabama, Clemson vs Georgia, etc). People from all over the country would tune in to those games. That’s their value to the conference and networks despite Florida and USCe already being in conference.
From what I’ve read it seems like FSU, Clemson, and UNC are all leaning SEC, (assuming they can get out of the ACC GOR).
Clemson was at least at one time trying to ride the coattails of UNC into the SEC. So far that hasn't gone so well, (but could change) and I have serious doubts the votes for them to get in will be there. It seems ESPN has little interest. I'm not even sure Clemson is still pursuing the SEC or, so I've been told. I will say that there is conflicting information on both Clemson and FSU but there is more people with very good contacts saying neither will end up in the SEC. One thing is for sure all of them won't be correct.
My initial take on Clemson and Miami was that they were Big 12 teams but for now things are going on behind the scenes that both may end up in the Big 10. I still feel very strongly that Miami belongs in the Big 12, not that they will go there but they belong there.
In a perfect world for me the Big 10 would end up with VA UNC FSU and GT. ND has to be mentioned not because I want them because I don't, but they make sense economically and regionally. Either way that would get the league to 22 teams then they could look west again for two other teams to round out the western pod with 4 pods of 6 teams or 3 pods of 8 teams.
My prediction is some time after the next round of expansion the Big 10 will go to 10 in conference games (2026?) a year and the CFP will go to 16 teams which will be 2 more daggers to the heart of those Homer Domers. My prayer for ND is they rot down to a group of 5 program. Just throwing that out there.
You have to think long term especially in Atlanta. Fox definitely wants to break into that market. Ten years of GT with Big 10 and FOX marketing behind them plus all that extra money GT would be making tripling what they make now also teams like PS OSU MI WA OR USC and others coming to town, FOX would be the biggest fools in the world not to take that shot if they could get it.
Rutgers was brought in to appease PS and not for any other reason. MD was brought in because Delaney failed on GT UNC and VA. Back then they knew there would be a march south coming for league expansion and MD contiguously was a logical move. They wanted that move in the east before the west coast was even thought of.
Teams who don't come in as full members are mostly brought in on a 10-year plan ala MD specific to the particular school. Ten-year plans are what most marketing plans are built around. Central planning you gotta love it. Love it or hate it that's the way it usually gets done.
I don't know about Miami but there is market potential there for sure and FOX wants them so, stay tuned on Miami.
I would love to go to 10 conference games, but only if the SEC does so as well or the cfp truly accounts for sos. They are still at 8 conference games at least through 2025 season as well. They still have the late season “bye week” versus lower level, garbage teams.
Things shaking and moving in expansion. FSU out in June? The lawyers of Wake Forest at work. Miami still on the ledge FOX is interested but presidents still say not without Stanford. Something will have to give there. Clemson still waiting on FSU. FSU BOT Faculty and Doners want Big 10 but it's not cut in stone, will come down to $$$$. On which conference they will pick FSU is playing both sides against the middle $$$$ as suspected of any university interested in moving to a new conference.
Obviously, VA UNC Clemson FSU are the most and first wanted by either conference. Not mentioning ND because they don't belong to the ACC screw them.
For the rest the Big 12 should get a free swing of who they want and can afford. The most likely suspects would be sPitt Syr VT NCS Miami, not sure they can afford all of them in fact I think it's doubtful at this time.
UNC still trying to secure a spot with them in the same conference several BOT and BOG on the same page there so it appears they are going to try and force that issue as far as they can.
TAMU still talking to the Big 10 but I don't see that happening unless the SEC goes to war with the Big 10 over FSU/Clemson then all bets are off. Two states the SEC/ESPN does not want the Big 10/FOX in is Fla and TX.
SEC is doing everything they can through third party contacts to wrap up VA and UNC.
Where are you hearing all this? Links? Thanks.Things shaking and moving in expansion. FSU out in June? The lawyers of Wake Forest at work. Miami still on the ledge FOX is interested but presidents still say not without Stanford. Something will have to give there. Clemson still waiting on FSU. FSU BOT Faculty and Doners want Big 10 but it's not cut in stone, will come down to $$$$. On which conference they will pick FSU is playing both sides against the middle $$$$ as suspected of any university interested in moving to a new conference.
Obviously, VA UNC Clemson FSU are the most and first wanted by either conference. Not mentioning ND because they don't belong to the ACC screw them.
For the rest the Big 12 should get a free swing of who they want and can afford. The most likely suspects would be sPitt Syr VT NCS Miami, not sure they can afford all of them in fact I think it's doubtful at this time.
UNC still trying to secure a spot with them in the same conference several BOT and BOG on the same page there so it appears they are going to try and force that issue as far as they can.
TAMU still talking to the Big 10 but I don't see that happening unless the SEC goes to war with the Big 10 over FSU/Clemson then all bets are off. Two states the SEC/ESPN does not want the Big 10/FOX in is Fla and TX.
SEC is doing everything they can through third party contacts to wrap up VA and UNC.
As always do your own research. I never divulge my contacts, it has taken me years to develop. I have posted about this stuff on the main board for years and my record stands as testimony.
I have seen some people reference Genetics 56 on realignment I'll just say the guy is full of it. I posted on the TAMU being interested in the Big 10 long before he did. I do believe I was the first to do so. Same with Stanford back to talking with the Big 10.
Genetics surfs other boards trying to glean any info then posts it on Twitter/X as though it's his own. I hope no one wastes their time on that guy. I'm not sure he's ever forecast anything that ever came true. He claims to be involved in athletic meetings with some Big 10 athletic directors which is absolutely laughable.
I have one person on the main board who knows my contacts and I give him the info via email first before anyone else for documentation. He shows up here on occasion.
Take everything, I say with a grain of salt but if I put it on this board you can be sure it's as I received it and where it's my opinion you will know. Don't want to start any squabbles and don't care if someone does. I just won't participate.
I started talking about a 24 team Big 10 almost two years ago and then when USC UCLA OR and WA came on I thought oh boy here we go. Now today I'm not as sure it's going to be as easy to get there as I once thought. I was hopeful that the Big 10 could cherry pick the best of the ACC to get there. Um maybe not so much now. They have to get to 20 teams first and the teams that get them there may dictate everything else. One thing I believe to be sure is once FSU and Clemson announce ND and Miami will have to come down off the stump especially Miami.
Hey, I wasn’t trying to challenge you. I was just interested in finding other places that were discussing the issue.
Agree on Genetics (and some others). With all the various tweets/ posts it’s hard to tell what’s more factual and what’s more wishful thinking at times. You see 1 person tweet something that then gets retweeted by others and suddenly it’s fact when in reality the original tweet was someone’s opinion.
Thanks, I didn't take it that you were challenging. I was just putting some things out there for public consumption to let people know I don't deal with negativity.
Thanks for your reply and I agree whole heartedly on the retweeting of questionable info. I try my best to keep it real but no one knows everything and can get it wrong even with the best of contacts. When that happens to me (thankfully not often) I own up on the spot.
