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Lets Talk Big 10 Expansion

Bingo. The conferences have their preferences, but at the end of the day, if somebody says "we want team A, F, V, and Z" and we'll add "this much" $$$, the conferences are going to roll with the money.

The networks don't care about anything but ratings, which in turn leads to advertisers paying higher ad fees. They would pay to add IMG to the SEC if the audience was there.
There is still a tug of war with FOX and the Presidents over Stanford but at the moment with the tie-up in the ACC Stanford is stuck. They have one other avenue for getting into the Big 10 and that would be if ND said they were coming but not without Stanford. Again, FOX wants Miami, and the presidents want Stanford, but Miami is tied-up in the ACC and waited to long to act with FSU and Clemson so that's out for at least a year or two. Miami officials sunk their own ship for getting to the Big 10 quickly or maybe at all. The stomach turns in Miami.
 
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I keep saying...look to history for precedent.

It's hard to figure out how the entire ACC will land...because you have to take one piece at a time.

Maryland didn't cause the fissure that Delany hoped it would because ESPN ponied up some money and Swofford got the rest of the ACC presidents to bite on the worst TV deal in college sports history. And Maryland wasn't a pillar of the ACC.

The Pac-12 dissolution is our best model for the ACC. It lost its tent poles and then collapsed...

UCLA and USC went. The writing was on the wall...the Pac-12 was scrambling for TV deals and hypothetical backfill teams.

A few months later...and almost simultaneously...UW/OU to the Big Ten at reduced shares...and the four corners schools to the Big 12. Then the Bay Area duo stumbled into the ACC.

FSU, UNC, and maybe Clemson are the UCLA/USC in all this. But instead of one suitor (the Big Ten for the Pac-12's best teams), we have two--the SEC and Big Ten.

And that's why this round is so fascinating. Who will the USC/UCLA combo be? How many will each conference take? Will the SEC or Big Ten come up the winners in this round...or will they both win?
 
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I keep saying...look to history for precedent.

It's hard to figure out how the entire ACC will land...because you have to take one piece at a time.

Maryland didn't cause the fissure that Delany hoped it would because ESPN ponied up some money and Swofford got the rest of the ACC presidents to bite on the worst TV deal in college sports history. And Maryland wasn't a pillar of the ACC.

The Pac-12 dissolution is our best model for the ACC. It lost its tent poles and then collapsed...

UCLA and USC went. The writing was on the wall...the Pac-12 was scrambling for TV deals and hypothetical backfill teams.

A few months later...and almost simultaneously...UW/OU to the Big Ten at reduced shares...and the four corners schools to the Big 12. Then the Bay Area duo stumbled into the ACC.

FSU, UNC, and maybe Clemson are the UCLA/USC in all this. But instead of one suitor (the Big Ten for the Pac-12's best teams), we have two--the SEC and Big Ten.

And that's why this round is so fascinating. Who will the USC/UCLA combo be? How many will each conference take? Will the SEC or Big Ten come up the winners in this round...or will they both win?

ACC schools are still locked in, and they added members to withstand an initial loss of teams if it somehow occurs. That's the key differences right now.

The money is also locked in for 12 more years and is probably a sweetheart deal for ESPN compared to trying to re-up right now.

ACC isn't likely to pull a PAC 12 and die, but it will be officially 2nd tier football at some point.
 
ACC schools are still locked in, and they added members to withstand an initial loss of teams if it somehow occurs. That's the key differences right now.

The money is also locked in for 12 more years and is probably a sweetheart deal for ESPN compared to trying to re-up right now.

ACC isn't likely to pull a PAC 12 and die, but it will be officially 2nd tier football at some point.
What is the status of FSU, Clemson and UNC regarding the ACC? Are they in litigation?

All this talk about them leaving but to your post it seems that may not happen for 12 years. If that is true then this discussion is totally irrelevant for the time being.
 
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What is the status of FSU, Clemson and UNC regarding the ACC? Are they in litigation?

All this talk about them leaving but to your post it seems that may not happen for 12 years. If that is true then this discussion is totally irrelevant for the time being.

I don't think anybody actually knows for sure. I would say it's strictly they are locked in until something let's them out of the contract. That could be days, weeks, months, years away. It could be never.

I would guess that with certain teams being the loudest and most vocal "we want out!", it keeps the news cycle revolving around them. I just haven't seen anything that puts forth any time frame because quite frankly, how do you break the terms of the contract without paying media rights fees? Somebody will figure something out at some point when enough money greases the right hands.

Until then, it's all just speculation.
 
Who do you have going to the Big 10 from the ACC? Stanford is back in play by the way.
ACC said to be on a track to collapse this year and play their last full ACC schedule in 2025. Not my prediction!

Band of 7 still active behind the scenes on the 8-team dissolution theory.

ND doing some internal assessments, they were the ones to ask the Big 10 to hold off on inviting a rush of teams. So, the brakes were put on FSU and Clemson to the Big 10 for now.

I think ND pretends to sort things out while trying to hold the ACC together, I will never trust ND on this issue. One ND insider states that they know the collapse is coming and some think trying to save the ACC is a waste of time and resources.
 
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ACC said to be on a track to collapse this year and play their last full ACC schedule in 2025. Not my prediction!

Band of 7 still active behind the scenes on the 8-team dissolution theory.

ND doing some internal assessments, they were the ones to ask the Big 10 to hold off on inviting a rush of teams. So, the brakes were put on FSU and Clemson to the Big 10 for now.

I think ND pretends to sort things out while trying to hold the ACC together, I will never trust ND on this issue. One ND insider states that they know the collapse is coming and some think trying to save the ACC is a waste of time and resources.
We're still pretending Clemson and FSU are the top targets huh?
 
I don’t know why anyone at the Big Ten would listen to Notre Dame and back off FSU and Clemson (or anyone else). ND should be ignored completely. Let them hang out in a watered down ACC with Stanford, Cal , Georgia Tech and Wake Forest while everyone else moves on.

Right now the ACC breakup is on hold until judges rule and everyone finds out what the penalties will be when the good teams leave. That’s going to take years and it’s in the ACC’s favor to drag it out to the very end.

The question is how long do Florida State and Clemson play along before they just say screw it and leave anyway to fight out the $ details later. It may be better for them to leave and get a court order (whatever they call it) preventing the ACC from taking their GOR money until the lawsuit is settled. In that case the game flips and it’s to Clemson and FSU’s advantage to stall and fight it out to the end hoping the ACC dissolves and they owe nothing. ;)
 
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It seems to me when it comes to ND, you tell them "Of course we want you, and if you want some specifics on the offer or whatever, let us know, but it doesn't make any sense for us come to you again and again or base our potential expansion on you eventually coming when we have no idea whether you'll ever come. We're planning our future as if you're not going to be in the Big Ten, but of course we'd love to have you in the Big Ten so let us know if the time comes that you're actively interested." And then move on.
 
I don’t know why anyone at the Big Ten would listen to Notre Dame and back off FSU and Clemson (or anyone else). ND should be ignored completely. Let them hang out in a watered down ACC with Stanford, Cal , Georgia Tech and Wake Forest while everyone else moves on.

Right now the ACC breakup is on hold until judges rule and everyone finds out what the penalties will be when the good teams leave. That’s going to take years and it’s in the ACC’s favor to drag it out to the very end.

The question is how long do Florida State and Clemson play along before they just say screw it and leave anyway to fight out the $ details later. It may be better for them to leave and get a court order (whatever they call it) preventing the ACC from taking their GOR money until the lawsuit is settled. In that case the game flips and it’s to Clemson and FSU’s advantage to stall and fight it out to the end hoping the ACC dissolves and they owe nothing. ;)
We aren't. If we wanted Clemson and FSU then by adding them it would force ND's hand. Just more nonsense.
Clemson and FSU don't currently have anywhere to go or they'd call the bluff IMO
 
It seems to me when it comes to ND, you tell them "Of course we want you, and if you want some specifics on the offer or whatever, let us know, but it doesn't make any sense for us come to you again and again or base our potential expansion on you eventually coming when we have no idea whether you'll ever come. We're planning our future as if you're not going to be in the Big Ten, but of course we'd love to have you in the Big Ten so let us know if the time comes that you're actively interested." And then move on.
ND will need to join with a partner. I can see them acting high and mighty and try to help out a service academy or a school like BC or Stanford.
 
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ND will need to join with a partner. I can see them acting high and mighty and try to help out a service academy or a school like BC or Stanford.
I don't like this reality but IMO it is a reality and that is that ND can join however they like and with or without whoever they like.
 
I don't like this reality but IMO it is a reality and that is that ND can join however they like and with or without whoever they like.
They need to make it look like giving up their independence is not a money grab, and they need to solidify their national reach. They will claim charity with a school like BC, but it will all be about them.
 
They need to make it look like giving up their independence is not a money grab, and they need to solidify their national reach. They will claim charity with a school like BC, but it will all be about them.

NDs independence has been a great money grab for them. They have their own deal with NBC. No sharing. The only team being promoted until they bought into airing B10 games.

Until the playoff group decides to eliminate them from contention without conference membership, they have zero reason to move. Costing them a 1-4 slot was a great first step since they will never have a bye under this format.
 
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NDs independence has been a great money grab for them. They have their own deal with NBC. No sharing. The only team being promoted until they bought into airing B10 games.

Until the playoff group decides to eliminate them from contention without conference membership, they have zero reason to move. Costing them a 1-4 slot was a great first step since they will never have a bye under this format.
They make slightly less than the current B1G tv deal.
 
I don’t know why anyone at the Big Ten would listen to Notre Dame and back off FSU and Clemson (or anyone else). ND should be ignored completely. Let them hang out in a watered down ACC with Stanford, Cal , Georgia Tech and Wake Forest while everyone else moves on.

Right now the ACC breakup is on hold until judges rule and everyone finds out what the penalties will be when the good teams leave. That’s going to take years and it’s in the ACC’s favor to drag it out to the very end.

The question is how long do Florida State and Clemson play along before they just say screw it and leave anyway to fight out the $ details later. It may be better for them to leave and get a court order (whatever they call it) preventing the ACC from taking their GOR money until the lawsuit is settled. In that case the game flips and it’s to Clemson and FSU’s advantage to stall and fight it out to the end hoping the ACC dissolves and they owe nothing. ;)
Something will break before Aug 6th. Nothing has changed relative to FSU or Clemson leaving they are not on hold and the ACC breakup is not on hold. The situation has little to do with lawsuits and more to do with negotiations. The second either one can tell the Big 10 or the SEC there is a verbal agreement it's over for the ACC. Negotiations with ESPN involved have been going on.

No way ESPN renews their current contract with the ACC and I believe Phillips has been told that. In that way ESPN avoids a court ordered disclosure of their agreement with the ACC. Then penalties for leaving are greatly reduced and the mad rush to the door begins for those who have been told by third parties they have landing spots.

I feel the same about ND. I don't even want them in the Big-10 for any reason. I want them to die an ugly death in independent mediocrity but that isn't going to happen. They told the Big-10 they needed time to sort through somethings. My guess is they want an idea of what a payout would be in a newly reconstructed ACC. Screw-um and let's move on but that won't happen either.
 
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They make slightly less than the current B1G tv deal.
I said a month ago that the contract had NBC stipulations/incentives attached. The other night Flugar described the contract as being on a sliding scale, that works too.

Some ND insiders seem to think that ND may only realize 30 to 35 million a year of the rumored 50 million. All the financial pitfalls and incentives are currently there for ND to make the jump, but they won't until they exhaust every possible avenue for independence, that day is coming and probably sooner than a lot of people think.
 
It seems to me when it comes to ND, you tell them "Of course we want you, and if you want some specifics on the offer or whatever, let us know, but it doesn't make any sense for us come to you again and again or base our potential expansion on you eventually coming when we have no idea whether you'll ever come. We're planning our future as if you're not going to be in the Big Ten, but of course we'd love to have you in the Big Ten so let us know if the time comes that you're actively interested." And then move on.
ND has all the specifics on their offer from the Big 10. ND has been fully vetted and accepted by the Big 10. The deal/offer has not changed. The money is being held for them in escrow for on the day they sign. They either accept the offer or they don't.
 
I said a month ago that the contract had NBC stipulations/incentives attached. The other night Flugar described the contract as being on a sliding scale, that works too.

Some ND insiders seem to think that ND may only realize 30 to 35 million a year of the rumored 50 million. All the financial pitfalls and incentives are currently there for ND to make the jump, but they won't until they exhaust every possible avenue for independence, that day is coming and probably sooner than a lot of people think.
Under current rules ND can't possibly qualify for a 1st round bye in the playoffs. Those spots go to conference winners so all they can get is an at large bid. It seems that might motivate them but they might like their chances better in the ACC.
 
Under current rules ND can't possibly qualify for a 1st round bye in the playoffs. Those spots go to conference winners so all they can get is an at large bid. It seems that might motivate them but they might like their chances better in the ACC.
Every financial strike for them remaining independent is against them. ESPN will not renew the current ACC contract from which they are running behind the SEC Big 10 and now the Big 12. When the exodus of FSU Clemson UNC and probably Miami hit the door others like NCS VT sPitt will be leaving for the Big 12. No way ND can survive on a TV contract of a reconstructed ACC with the likes of BC Syr Duke Wake SMU and other low hanging fruit the ACC may backfill with. IF IF IF which I doubt that ESPN would pick that up but if they did it would be greatly under the current payout and might not reach 20 million a team per year.

As for ND their destiny is about to arrive.
 
Under current rules ND can't possibly qualify for a 1st round bye in the playoffs. Those spots go to conference winners so all they can get is an at large bid. It seems that might motivate them but they might like their chances better in the ACC.
Best slots are 5-8. Home game bonanza for the town. PSU has already moved fall graduation to Sunday on that weekend just in case. It’s a windfall and means $15m impact for the SC community. That’s how the football team returns any NIL “donations” beyond appearances.
 
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Best slots are 5-8. Home game bonanza for the town. PSU has already moved fall graduation to Sunday on that weekend just in case. It’s a windfall and means $15m impact for the SC community. That’s how the football team returns any NIL “donations” beyond appearances.
Where did you get that $15 million number?
 
There was an economic impact study done in 2022 that found that PSU football impact on SC was close to $90 annually over the 7 home game schedule. I believe it used the 2021 home schedule.
 
Obviously, Stanford is an amazing academic school. However, they are not a state school. The privates like Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Wake typically haven't had the resources for any prolonged athletic success. Stanford is amazing in olympic sports, but not so much football and basketball, historically. Why not a Colorado or Arizona or Utah to balance the west? All AAU state schools. We are talking about athletic conferences. @PSU4U where do you see UNC and UVA ending up?
 
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Obviously, Stanford is an amazing academic school. However, they are not a state school. The privates like Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Wake typically haven't had the resources for any prolonged athletic success. Stanford is amazing in olympic sports, but not so much football and basketball, historically. Why not a Colorado or Arizona or Utah to balance the west? All AAU state schools. We are talking about athletic conferences. @PSU4U where do you see UNC and UVA ending up?
Stanford has amazing resources unfortunately they don't spend any of it on Football.

ND has gone to bat for Stanford to the Big 10 which I find amazing since they have done everything, they could to keep the ACC afloat. That is until now. Things must be changing at ND. The way I see it if ND wants Stanford in the Big 10 (travel partner?) then Stanford will be in the Big 10. That's one thing FOX would sign off on when they wouldn't before by just adding Stanford in the last expansion.
 
I could definitely see Stanford, but BC is obviously a Catholic university and I would imagine that fact is important to ND. And secondarily they may want to be in a conference that has a presence in the Boston region.
As much as I would like to see the old eastern schools in the Big, BC and Syracuse aren't going to make it.

sPitt has support within the Big 10 schools just not enough. Playing in a rent a stadium is one big drawback among others like attendance, but their sports department financial health is good just not great. IMO things would have to go horribly wrong for Big 10 expansion plus I don't think the necessary votes would be there for any of the remaining east teams.

The following schools who would most likely vote for sPitt are PS, MSU MI OSU WI MD and RU.

The lists of schools on expansion from Delaney to Warren to Petitti have not changed and sPitt is on the list but IMO it would take a miracle for them to make it in. I don't ever use the word never.
 
Stanford has amazing resources unfortunately they don't spend any of it on Football.

ND has gone to bat for Stanford to the Big 10 which I find amazing since they have done everything, they could to keep the ACC afloat. That is until now. Things must be changing at ND. The way I see it if ND wants Stanford in the Big 10 (travel partner?) then Stanford will be in the Big 10. That's one thing FOX would sign off on when they wouldn't before by just adding Stanford in the last expansion.
UVA and UNC. Where do they want to be? Where do they end up? B1G at 18, but what’s the final number and what are the final 2-4-6 teams to get in? Same for SEC?
 
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Can you imagine the complexity of the negotiations?

ND has a contract with NBC.
ACC has a contract with ESPN.
BTN has multiple TV contracts.
What happens to all the TV contracts if teams leave?
ND is a semi member of the ACC. Can they leave without a $ penalty?
Stanford and Cal are in the ACC. Can they leave without a penalty?
All of the above contracts involve millions of dollars.
And in addition to the money, there are big egos and politics lurking.

Too bad there isn't an organization that overseas college sports (sarcasm alert).

Good luck trying to predict all these outcomes.
 
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UVA and UNC. Where do they want to be? Where do they end up? B1G at 18, but what’s the final number and what are the final 2-4-6 teams to get in? Same for SEC?
The final number is 24. It seems unlikely at this point that the Big will land UNC but has a chance for VA. VA is still in love with the rivalry they once had with MD and MD has been influential there. However, everyone is well aware of the legal wranglings of VA and UNC so that's a problem for both but should get worked out over time.

IMO based on things I've been told the most likely teams to end up in the Big from the ACC is FSU GT VA and ND if you count ND in the ACC. That would get them to 22 then they would need (again IMO) two from out west. I go with Stanford and Utah. CO and Kansas are also on the list of teams the Big is interested in but down the list.

All four new Big 10 adds support the addition of Utah and Stanford but USC and UCLA would take Utah over Stanford if they had to choose. Especially USC.
 
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IMO, UNC just fits better in the B1G. Especially if MD/UVA/FSU/GT could be as well. This assumes UNC/VT/CLEM would head to the SEC? B1G would take GT over Miami ?
 
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IMO, UNC just fits better in the B1G. Especially if MD/UVA/FSU/GT could be as well. This assumes UNC/VT/CLEM would head to the SEC? B1G would take GT over Miami ?

I just can’t see any sane Big Ten member taking Georgia Tech at all. It would be Rutgers 2.0.

Virginia is bad enough but adding UVa and GT (and maybe Stanford)? It’s just flushing money down the drain for current Big Ten teams.

From what I’ve seen, most UNC fans would prefer the SEC. While the Big Ten is better academically, the SEC has a more natural draw for them with its southern focus. That means a lot to the old time Tobacco Road crew.
 
IMO, UNC just fits better in the B1G. Especially if MD/UVA/FSU/GT could be as well. This assumes UNC/VT/CLEM would head to the SEC? B1G would take GT over Miami ?
Yes GT over Miami. Miami has issues that the Big 10 is not at all keen on. The Atlanta market trumps anything Miami could bring and in reality, Miami doesn't bring anything that FSU doesn't. But Miami is on the list but down the list.
 
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I just can’t see any sane Big Ten member taking Georgia Tech at all. It would be Rutgers 2.0.

Virginia is bad enough but adding UVa and GT (and maybe Stanford)? It’s just flushing money down the drain for current Big Ten teams.

From what I’ve seen, most UNC fans would prefer the SEC. While the Big Ten is better academically, the SEC has a more natural draw for them with its southern focus. That means a lot to the old time Tobacco Road crew.
Not so. The markets in VA and Atlanta are very lucrative extremely so in Atlanta. You're not talking about VA or GT playing VT or Duke or NCS or Wake or BC or Syr or even sPitt. You're talking about them playing PS OSU MI WA OR USC UCLA and IA WI NE all would bring big viewership and TV ratings. The 90 mil plus year would give both those schools money for things they cannot now buy to bolster their programs.

I'll give you your take on Stanford, but they probably come as a travel partner with ND and that would make Stanford a big time take.
 
Not so. The markets in VA and Atlanta are very lucrative extremely so in Atlanta. You're not talking about VA or GT playing VT or Duke or NCS or Wake or BC or Syr or even sPitt. You're talking about them playing PS OSU MI WA OR USC UCLA and IA WI NE all would bring big viewership and TV ratings. The 90 mil plus year would give both those schools money for things they cannot now buy to bolster their programs.

I'll give you your take on Stanford, but they probably come as a travel partner with ND and that would make Stanford a big time take.

Respectfully, we heard all of this regarding Rutgers and the NYC market which is much bigger. No one in NYC cares about Rutgers. Is NYC tuning in to watch Rutgers play? No.

Same with Georgia Tech and Atlanta. Athens is just outside Atlanta and UGA controls that town’s market. No one is tuning in to watch OSU beat GT 56-3 other than Buckeye fans and maybe a few Bulldogs who want to point and laugh at Tech.

What’s the big market for UVA? From what I read, DC is far more a VT market than Virginia one. Charlottesville and Richmond? Hard no from me. These teams make no sense financially.
 
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The NYC demographic is #1 and Philly #4. They both overlap NJ. However, NJ has over 9 million people on its own, #11 total. Rutgers is improving across the board in many sports, including football. RU and MD more than paid for themselves getting into the B1G. When RU is decent, they get good ratings. If the B1G goes to 24 it's about control. the B1G will have CA to Chicago to NY to DC to maybe NC/FL etc. At that point the B1G calls the shots. The south and the SEC will always be football strong but they become almost regional, where the B1G will be national. Personally, I'd like to see UVA-UNC-FSU-1 of AZ/UT/CO, then ND plus Miami/STAN/GT

Tier 1 - USC-OR-WA-PSU-OSU-UM-FSU-ND
Tier 2 - MSU-WIS-IOW-UNC-NEB
Tier 3 - UCLA-MIN-NW-ILL-PUR-IU-RUT-MD-UVA
 
Respectfully, we heard all of this regarding Rutgers and the NYC market which is much bigger. No one in NYC cares about Rutgers. Is NYC tuning in to watch Rutgers play? No.

Same with Georgia Tech and Atlanta. Athens is just outside Atlanta and UGA controls that town’s market. No one is tuning in to watch OSU beat GT 56-3 other than Buckeye fans and maybe a few Bulldogs who want to point and laugh at Tech.

What’s the big market for UVA? From what I read, DC is far more a VT market than Virginia one. Charlottesville and Richmond? Hard no from me. These teams make no sense financially.
What everyone said about Rutgers wasn't wrong except for the NYC thing. NYC people do not follow college football. It was more about supplying another team to the east to balance out the eastern schedule that was a contiguous state which was more important to the Big 10 at that time.

MD was about luring VA and still is. Fox and the Big 10 greatly value VA. People may not like that but they do. It is a growing population that follows college football. FOX sees money and that's ok by me they are a billion-dollar business so they should know about those things.

VA isn't a top pick for expansion UNC and ND are along with FSU but they still want VA they just aren't top three and maybe not top four considering GT.
 
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The final number is 24. It seems unlikely at this point that the Big will land UNC but has a chance for VA. VA is still in love with the rivalry they once had with MD and MD has been influential there. However, everyone is well aware of the legal wranglings of VA and UNC so that's a problem for both but should get worked out over time.

IMO based on things I've been told the most likely teams to end up in the Big from the ACC is FSU GT VA and ND if you count ND in the ACC. That would get them to 22 then they would need (again IMO) two from out west. I go with Stanford and Utah. CO and Kansas are also on the list of teams the Big is interested in but down the list.

All four new Big 10 adds support the addition of Utah and Stanford but USC and UCLA would take Utah over Stanford if they had to choose. Especially USC.
Do they let Stanford in without Cal? Clearly there need to be more west coast teams but who? Utah is okay, good at football, meh academically. Stanford and Cal are elite academics but lousy in football. After that you have the Arizona schools, no. Oregon State, Wash State, no. Colorado, maybe. 6 west coast teams seems odd but maybe that is it.
 
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