Lets Talk Big 10 Expansion
- Thread starter PSU4U
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I think proportional payouts will come along with the next expansion plays. Not just for the newbies, but for all teams. I just don't see OSU, UM, PSU, USC et al accepting the same payouts as NW, indy, Purdue et al for too much longer. They need to pay out based upon viewership numbers, which is also closely related to longterm success.
Not exactly. FOX wants Miami but the presidents have to vote them in. The presidents want Stanford, but FOX wouldn't pay for them. If FOX wants Miami they will have to pay for Stanford too or some other school. FOX wanted OR but the presidents wouldn't vote them in. There was a trade off by FOX for the Eastern presidents who voted no 2 times then after the tradeoff OR got in on the third vote. We have yet to see the fruits of that trade off to the eastern presidents, but I would guess it's an ACC team or two that FOX wouldn't normally go for.
I find it tough to believe that they want Miami badly enough to take another program. UNC is the only real "prize" other than Notre Dame.
I'm sorry but there is no way that FOX is "fighting" for Miami (FL) - their ratings and fan base are decidedly mediocre at this point in time. It's not the 1980s anymore. I mean, they aren't a bad choice but they aren't good enough to make a hoopla to expand for. If FOX is fighting for anyone it would be FSU and they certainly could be getting pushback from the college presidents for that (not AAU, lower academic quality compared to typical at Big Ten school, more "southern" culture so maybe not as good of a fit, etc).
I could certainly believe that the presidents wanted Stanford, but they are relatively worthless as a TV product and the only way they come is as an extra team along with someone that the conference really wants (e.g. Notre Dame) to keep the number of teams in the conference at an even number.
I likewise have a really hard time believing Fox wants anyone outside FSU, Clemson and UNC.
I'm not sure that's really that true at this point. VA Tech certainly had a nice run but has really fallen off since Beamer is gone and historically UVA was the stronger program of the two in football (let alone in basketball and other sports). I'm not sure VA Tech has enough football cred difference to overcome the other advantages UVA has ("flagship" school, closer to key DC market, AAU, better academics). Also, probably the most important, the Big Ten wants UNC and Chapel Hill has a very close relationship with UVA and could very well want to come as a pair which could push the Cavaliers over the top. I think UVA has quite a bit more value to the Big Ten than the other schools UNC might want to come along (Duke, NC State).
Beyond Clemson and FSU what ACC teams are additive for football? Yes, on hoops UNC and UVA would be great but in football they are nothing special. I guess opening up new markets but if it was that simple wouldn't the B10 also push for BC (Boston), Syracuse (New Yotk state), Missouri (St Louis) not sure the SEC would lose any sleep about losing them, Colorado (Denver) and with CU you get overblown Deon side show to bring eyeballs, Utah (SLC) the U (Miami), Ga Tech (Atlanta), Cal and Stanford (SF and Oakland), TA&M (Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, San Antonio).
B1G wants six more schools but who need AAU affiliation. ND is one of them. The others would be A&M, GaTech, UNC, MIA, and UVa. This is who the Presidents want and they hold the final authority. Stanford and Duke on waitlist… FSU and Clemson are not on their list. Do nothing for conference status. Fed research $$$ means more than media $$$. Look it up. PSU alone gets something like $1.2b now.
It's not about adding great football teams. The Big Ten has enough especially with the belief ND has to eventually join.
UVA adds little when it comes to the DC market. It's an area of transplants that bring their own school loyalties. Alumni and fanbases from the existing B10 are very well represented in the DC region, and there's the obvious impact of the presence of UMD. The heavy transplant factor also greatly reduces the built-in core of fans whose rooting interest in UVA is based on it being their state's team. The DC local media certainly doesn't treat UVA like a home team. The difference in distances to the area is largely negated by the fact that kids from NOVA are more likely to go to VT than UVA, in part because UVA has roughly 17,400 undergrads to VT's 30,400. The size also keeps UVA from being the state's flagship school in the same way that you see with schools like Michigan or Oklahoma. The academic appeal and possible link to UNC may make UVA attractive, but if I was looking at schools for conference expansion, UVA would be way down my list.
Doubt that will happen as it will just exacerbate the competitive unbalance.
The Premier League is cutting down on teams owned by wealthy sovereign funds and the like to buy unlimited players because viewers start to lose interest when the same 1-2 teams keep winning.
More likely is that in the future, teams in the PO will get a larger share of the PO revenue (so more like the NFL model).
As for expansion, seems likely that it will be FSU and a partner; the B1G will hold at 20 unless things come to fore which pushes the Domers to join a conference.
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I get your point, but FOX does want to be in Miami with Miami.
There is no fight necessary for FSU where the Big 10 is concerned. I have never been told that there is any pushback from Big presidents over FSU and I don't think there is or will be any. Big presidents love FSU research and their academics. As far as AAU is concerned it's absolutely not necessary but certainly nice to have. FSU will probably get their AAU designation a year or two from now. They are working diligently to that end. FSU is viewed as a cash cow by the Big 10 they are very financially sound including their entire athletic dept. They would be/are a huge asset to the Big 10 in almost every way.
Stanford is still in play for the Big 10 but if they are to make it this year a deal has to be struck between the presidents and FOX. I don't expect that to happen because the ACC cherry picking is moving as slow as glacial melt because the ACC is trying to hold everything up as long as possible to get the highest settlement they can get from Clemson and FSU.
I've been told that it's highly likely that neither league can get what they want and need out of the ACC so to get to 24 teams' expansion beyond the ACC will move west for both leagues.
Teams that will be in play not that they will be taken all or any of them but will probably get vetted for the SEC will be Louisville Baylor TCU SMU Kansas AZ and ASU. Sankey has said that they have no designs on moving any farther west than Texas. He also said they had no desire to expand right before they took TX and OK.
For the Big 10 Louisville Kansas Utah and Stanford. Utah and Stanford make the most sense to me it gives the west coast/pod/division 6 teams. USC is a huge lobby for Utah right now. In the next couple years if Utah continues to work on research and continues to improve their brand which is already big, they will have a very good shot at getting in the Big 10.
As far as ND is concerned IMO screw-em. They will come along eventually may be the last one in.
FOX sees everything through dollars, and they want to be in that market because the potential is huge. On this expansion thing fans tend to see things in the here and now. Corporations like FOX look at things 10-20 years down the road. They are long term investments.
And Miami is a long term investment? Again, I'm not buying it--the market doesn't matter as much with national networks unlike BTN. Miami doesn't have a legit fan base at this point so getting the market adds limited viewers.
I still think UNC and even Georgia Tech would be more valuable than Miami
Fox sees things in current revenue, not 10-20 years down the road. Fox has no crystal ball to know if they would even win the next B1G contract bid. Miami has mediocre support from its own alumni and fan bases, little national interest, and zero momentum. There is no chance Fox gives Miami anything greater than a partial revenue share. Metro Market size is no longer a criteria in realignment. Ratings is the criteria.
MINN-NEB-IOWA-ILLINOIS-WISC-NW
MICH-MSU-PUR-IN-OSU-ND/KS
WASH-ORE-USC-UCLA-UT/AZ/CU
PSU-MD-RUT-UVA-UNC-FSU
5+1+1+1+RANDOM
Original B1G plays more together
West coast plays more together
East coast/newbies play more together
MICH-MSU-PUR-IN-OSU-ND/KS
WASH-ORE-USC-UCLA-UT/AZ/CU
PSU-MD-RUT-UVA-UNC-FSU
5+1+1+1+RANDOM
Original B1G plays more together
West coast plays more together
East coast/newbies play more together
OK this is the last time I'll say it FOX wants Miami and REALLY wants to be in that market. People can buy into anything they want or not. I put out the info it is what it is.
As for GT yes a huge market that FOX also wants to jump into. BUT BUT BUT right now it's about availability so neither Miami or GT are getting invited in the short term and it may take years for them to work out their situations with the ACC unless the ACC Collapses.
Clemson was not the Big 10's 2nd choice FSU was right behind UNC but UNC has created its own quagmire that may take years to fix. The best ability right now is availability. Had UVA UNC GT Miami not created their own mess it's very plausible that Clemson wouldn't be headed to the Big 10 so soon if at all.
I said recently that neither the SEC or the Big 10 was going to be able to get all they want and need out of the ACC and that both conferences would be looking west again. The Big 10 will certainly do that as soon as they have Clemson and FSU sealed signed and delivered because everyone else in the ACC is now a year or two behind and have tons of legal work to do.
The Big 10 is being very aggressive they have a plan and a timetable they want to meet, and they are not going to wait on teams like a UNC VA who they might not even get because they lean SEC and Sankey has said they would be an SEC priority. In that situation Sankey can be patient while it might not be wise for the Big 10 to do so.
There's going to be occurrences where pan B becomes plan A when you find yourself in an ACC type environment.
What are your sources on the subject? Or are you speaking in terms of your own speculation?
What is so attractive about UNC? I understand great academics, and their bball tradition. But I've never been impressed with their football program. And do they bring much of a media market with them? They are always solid in football but not elite. Is it possible the B10 wants to add an elite academic school, with a huge bball fanbase but with a football program that is middling so as not to create too much competition against the top teams? Raleigh-Durham doesn't seem like a media prize, but maybe a foothold in the south is enough. I know, I asked more questions than offering any support for my original question, but just curious why all the love for UNC? (I'm not much of a college bball fan and maybe that's the reason for the disconnect with me).
PS: Same feelings about UVA x10 because UVA has a really boring football program IMO.
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Expansion isn't about the quality of th3 football programs. In fact, aside from Notre Dame there's no reason to add a strong football program. UNC and UVa lock in those states and helps destroy the ACC and prevents the Big XII from having them. UNC Virginia Ga Tech and ND simply make the most sense. The entire FSU Miami Clemson thing is fan fiction IMO.
We are all speculating with different rationale and we may all be wrong in the end. I look at it in terms of what has happened recently. The SEC and B1G have added schools based on tv viewership over the last several years . Based on that I would say the only remaining P2 full revenue share additions are FSU, Clemson, ND, and possibly UNC. The rest of the ACC substantially decreases the mean tv revenue payouts. This is why Clemson and FSU want out of that conference. UVA and GT feel like Big 10 schools, but nobody watches them in their own states. Fox will not pay for those schools in my opinion. I could of course be wrong!
I understand what you're saying but the end game now appears different. Time will yell but if the Big Ten adds Clemson or FSU I'd be surprised.
I don't think UNC adds a ton of viewership thus I don't think is it TV revenue accretive. They are not a football power but are an academic power so maybe the school presidents insist on adding them. Clemson just seems like it is an SEC school. I think FSU could make sense but geographically they would be a lone wolf.
The Pac-12 and Big 12 have already been carved up. The SEC took OU and UT. The Big Ten took the 4 on the coast.
The ACC is up next. Whether it's this summer or 2034. And it's far more of a border war than the Pac-12/Big 12 one was.
The Big Ten wants to go south. The SEC wants to go north and protect the south.
UNC, FSU, and Clemson are the top 3 targets, in that order. Yes, FSU football is better than UNC's but UNC is unclaimed territory, great academically, and a basketball blue blood.
UVA and Miami and GaTech are the next 3. (NcSt, VaTech, Duke, and the rest probably don't come into play in this round of expansion...not even for a super reduced share.)
If the Big Ten could get UNC and FSU, they would and call it a day. If they only can get one, then the other schools come into play.
UNC but not FSU? Then UVA probably makes more sense for the Big Ten and really puts a wall on the north to keep the SEC out.
FSU but not UNC? Then Miami might make a nice duo and really establish the Big Ten in Florida.
I don't see Clemson being a viable Big Ten target at all...but if the networks or FSU told them they had to take Clemson, they might.
The ACC is up next. Whether it's this summer or 2034. And it's far more of a border war than the Pac-12/Big 12 one was.
The Big Ten wants to go south. The SEC wants to go north and protect the south.
UNC, FSU, and Clemson are the top 3 targets, in that order. Yes, FSU football is better than UNC's but UNC is unclaimed territory, great academically, and a basketball blue blood.
UVA and Miami and GaTech are the next 3. (NcSt, VaTech, Duke, and the rest probably don't come into play in this round of expansion...not even for a super reduced share.)
If the Big Ten could get UNC and FSU, they would and call it a day. If they only can get one, then the other schools come into play.
UNC but not FSU? Then UVA probably makes more sense for the Big Ten and really puts a wall on the north to keep the SEC out.
FSU but not UNC? Then Miami might make a nice duo and really establish the Big Ten in Florida.
I don't see Clemson being a viable Big Ten target at all...but if the networks or FSU told them they had to take Clemson, they might.
Don't forget GT that's a huge market that has been showing continued growth for many years to come. FOX would love to be in that market and the Big 10 loves GT.
The SEC has no interest at this time in any team they are currently in. Sankey seems to be only interested in new states with big viewership. That's why both Clemson and FSU will be headed to the Big 10.
I have sources which will never be divulged only one person on the main board knows my sources. Divulge sources and they dry up in a heartbeat. As I tell everyone I posted on the main board for a long time and my track record stands and as always do your own research take what I say with a grain of salt. No one even with good sources gets it right 100% the time. It's ok to be skeptical.
Clemson is about availability. They are a national brand with a big upside and FSU needs a travel partner. They come in two by two and the Big 10 is not stopping at 20.
Atlanta is a huge market, but they watch UGA football; not GT football.
Nobody is batting a 1000, but people come here to discuss it. That's the fun.
That's true (Atlanta) to a large extent but imagine GT with the backing and marketing of the Big 10 and FOX behind them litterally everything would get exponentially better for GT including viewership and recruiting.
When the likes of PS OSU MI NEB WI USC UCLA OR and WA start showing up on GT's home schedule and even away games their viewership will be very good. GT has huge potential. They actually have a brand now with 8 national championships they just can't market themselves do to a lack of resources. Joining the Big 10 would give them all the resources they need and FOX loves Atlanta and Big 10 presidents love GT. Win Win.
Well, I don’t see GT ‘s viability at present, I hope you’re right. The Big Ten does need to get into high growth states down south. Georgia being one of them, and certainly Florida and North Carolina being the others. I’m just getting back from vacation in North Carolina this week. It’s an interesting state as half of the population is certainly very southern and the other half of the population are all transplants from New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. I was decked out in my PSU shirts on multiple days and I got a decent number of ‘we are’s’ and even compliments about Penn State. It actually gave me hope that maybe were getting past the whole Sandusky stain!
Everyone is focused on FSU, Clemson and UNC. I agree they are the three best targets but what happens to the rest of the ACC?
I don't see Clemson going to the B10. Just a matter of time until they go to the SEC.
As for all the other ACC schools besides FSU, none are going to be very competitive in football and don't draw any kind of national audience. With UNC, I question if even in the broader Carolina/southeast market they really have any clout with football viewership.
Nevertheless, expansion is inevitable so it will be a battle between the B10 and SEC but how deep into the ACC do each of them want to go?
The key school I think is FSU. Clemson to SEC and UNC to B10 then that leaves a dog fight to nab FSU. FSU could be a package deal with Miami but Miami does not seem like a great B10 fit nor SEC fit. So not sure what happens to them....weak alumni support, not a strong national draw but very good academically. UNC will want Duke. The B10 will want to protect the mid Atlantic and probably go with both UVA and Va Tech.
You also have Cal and Stanford sitting out there on the left coast. Great academics but bring nothing for both football and basketball. Not good TV numbers. They would love to get to the B10 but I don't think the B10 wants them.
Then after that what happens to GA Tech, Wake, NC State. Pitt, BC and Syracuse?? SEC will not want any of the NE schools and don't see them going with GA Tech. NC State and Wake. B10 will not want them. Maybe NC State slips into the B10? Do they form their own lesser conference? Is this where Cal and Stanford land?
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I'm glad some are getting it and not just looking at the hear and now. If that is what alignment was all about the following teams would not be in the Big 10, NE UCLA MD RU.
The fact of the matter is FOX/Big 10 look at a number of qualities and incentives that are not cold and hard to every university. One may have some while others have everything. Even being border state also matters sometimes. Not necessary these days but certainly doesn't hurt.
I've found We Are's are everywhere especially down the entire eastern seaboard. The PS alumni are huge and can be found almost everywhere you go. Part of the reason that PS has such a national appeal.
If the networks are willing to pay and the presidents don't see the school as dividing the pie. Stanford is not in the Big 10 because FOX told them ok but you pay for it, they wouldn't and didn't.
Bingo. The conferences have their preferences, but at the end of the day, if somebody says "we want team A, F, V, and Z" and we'll add "this much" $$$, the conferences are going to roll with the money.
The networks don't care about anything but ratings, which in turn leads to advertisers paying higher ad fees. They would pay to add IMG to the SEC if the audience was there.
