If Starocci still had the inside lock on the leg then I agree with you, no TD. I thought he lost the leg based on the change in Kem’s leg position and Starocci arm, in which case it becomes a TD. The latter was the basis for my opinion
If you look at video, Starocci readjusts his grip on Kem's leg with about 5 seconds to go - specifically, he goes below Kem's knee and locks his right arm around Kem's lower left leg elbow-deep with hand/fist coming back towards his body. Starocci then immediately goes head-to-mat to relieve pressure on arm as Kem is pushing straight-down on his shoulder joint. Once Starocci goes head-to-mat with 5 seconds, you can no longer see what is going on with his right arm, shoulder or head as you can't see them as the camera angle is blocked by Starocci's lower-body and Kem's body. But there is no video evidence that anything changes during the last 5 seconds relative to Starocci's right arm. In addition, I just looked at the video again, stopping it each of the last 5 seconds and Kem is still whizzering Carter's right arm all the way through time expiring. This alone means no TD without full Merkel in - IOW, the wrestlers are shoulder-to-shoulder with Kem still whizzering Carter with his left arm as time expires.... Kem is not fully behind Carter's right arm and armpit with a chest wrap. No way is that position a 2T without a full Merkel in.