Potential Seeding for NCAAs

[tuggerjug]

Here's my take

125 - Contenders for #2/#3 - Nick, Cruz, Dance, maybe Lambert? Can't see how we don't out seed both Cruz and Lambert based on head to head wins - can see them giving Dance #2 and Nick #3

133 - doesn't matter

141 - up to matchups for Jimmy - can't expect more than a 2-2 type of weekend at this point

149 - Zain obvi #1 and Collica#2 no idea how they sort out Mayes, Jordan and Sorenson for 3/4/5 but I'd guess Mayes (is 1-1 vs Collica and loss to Thomsen and Intermat has Mayes #3 - I feel like Intermat is preferred by committee - could be pulling that out of butt though), Jordan and Sorenson. Could see them rewarding Jordan based on strength of schedule Big 10 record and him leap frogging Mayes.

157 - doesn't matter

165 - very interesting - IMar and Massa are clear 1 and 2. Then have Cenzo, Jordan and Lewis? I find it hard to believe they slip Lewis ahead of either Jordan or Cenzo. 1-1 head to head - only thing that seperates them is Cenzo early season loss to Stanford......and that Cenzo won last head to head. I feel like they give the nod to returning two-time AA in Jordan and Cenzo is #4.

174 - Valencia - clear #1, gotta think Realbuto is the #2 and Bo is #3 - that leaves Hall at #4 - and possibly Epperly bumps him to #5 but same side and Valencia - can't see how Hall avoids Valencia side of bracket.

184 - Dean #1 - then up to Nickal, Brooks, Boyd, Zavatsky, Martin - Bo has head to head wins against them all so can't see both Brooks AND Boyd leapfrogging him so have to believe its Bo/Brooks (or vice-versa) then Boyd at #4. Have to believe Zavatsky gets #5 over Martin (ZZ has a head to head win and 2 other losses one to Dean and one to NCST which MM also lost to along with 2 other lower ranked guys - think this would have changed if MM won Big10s)

197 - Cox, Moore, Haught, Pfarr, then its up between Jake Smith, McCutch, Studebaker Wiegel - Cutch has as good a case as any for the 5th seed but I think we would want him as the #6 that would give him Haught in quarters and Moore in Semis - he has better chance against either of those guys than Pfarr and Cox (IMHO)

Hwt - Snyder, Medbury, Walz, then Nick - can't see them giving #3 to NN over ACC champ Walz who beat #5 in finals.

so to recap

Suriano - 2/3
Jimmy - ?? needs good draw
Zain - 1
Nolf - 1
Cenzo - 4
Hall - 4/5
Bo - 2/3
Cutch 5/6
Hwy 4

 

[jrd23psu]

This big ones are Nick, Bo, Mark, and NN.

125 - Suriano is definitely at worst a #3 seed. Realistically he is the 2nd best 125lb guy in the country. There is hardly a difference between a #2 and #3 seed, though.

174 - Mark is right there. I honestly think he's the #3 seed realistically. I think he beats Realbuto if they wrestle. He'll likely be the #4 seed, though.

184 - Nickal is without a doubt the #2 guy in the country. I know he lost to MM last night, but if we're honestly looking at who is the actual second best wrestler at this weight it's Bo. You can make an argument for Brooks at #2, but there isn't much difference between #2 and #3 since they are on the same side at the NCAA. Bo is at worst a #3 seed.

HWT - I still think NN is a #4 seed. At worst they will seed him #5 but I think they seed him #4.

 

[El-Jefe]

IMO Cenzo will be the 3. He won the bigger match with Jordan and widened the gap.

Lewis likely will not pass either of them -- was recently decked.by UNI's Steiert and earlier by Rogers. Avenged both, but hard to ignore falls against.

 

[21Guns]

Need Nickal to get the 2 seed to avoid Martin's side of the bracket. Martin will be 6 seed.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

Need Nickal to get the 2 seed to avoid Martin's side of the bracket. Martin will be 6 seed.

Nickal does NOT need to avoid Martin

 

[Real-Lion]

Here's my take

125 - Contenders for #2/#3 - Nick, Cruz, Dance, maybe Lambert? Can't see how we don't out seed both Cruz and Lambert based on head to head wins - can see them giving Dance #2 and Nick #3

133 - doesn't matter

141 - up to matchups for Jimmy - can't expect more than a 2-2 type of weekend at this point

149 - Zain obvi #1 and Collica#2 no idea how they sort out Mayes, Jordan and Sorenson for 3/4/5 but I'd guess Mayes (is 1-1 vs Collica and loss to Thomsen and Intermat has Mayes #3 - I feel like Intermat is preferred by committee - could be pulling that out of butt though), Jordan and Sorenson. Could see them rewarding Jordan based on strength of schedule Big 10 record and him leap frogging Mayes.

157 - doesn't matter

165 - very interesting - IMar and Massa are clear 1 and 2. Then have Cenzo, Jordan and Lewis? I find it hard to believe they slip Lewis ahead of either Jordan or Cenzo. 1-1 head to head - only thing that seperates them is Cenzo early season loss to Stanford......and that Cenzo won last head to head. I feel like they give the nod to returning two-time AA in Jordan and Cenzo is #4.

174 - Valencia - clear #1, gotta think Realbuto is the #2 and Bo is #3 - that leaves Hall at #4 - and possibly Epperly bumps him to #5 but same side and Valencia - can't see how Hall avoids Valencia side of bracket.

184 - Dean #1 - then up to Nickal, Brooks, Boyd, Zavatsky, Martin - Bo has head to head wins against them all so can't see both Brooks AND Boyd leapfrogging him so have to believe its Bo/Brooks (or vice-versa) then Boyd at #4. Have to believe Zavatsky gets #5 over Martin (ZZ has a head to head win and 2 other losses one to Dean and one to NCST which MM also lost to along with 2 other lower ranked guys - think this would have changed if MM won Big10s)

197 - Cox, Moore, Haught, Pfarr, then its up between Jake Smith, McCutch, Studebaker Wiegel - Cutch has as good a case as any for the 5th seed but I think we would want him as the #6 that would give him Haught in quarters and Moore in Semis - he has better chance against either of those guys than Pfarr and Cox (IMHO)

Hwt - Snyder, Medbury, Walz, then Nick - can't see them giving #3 to NN over ACC champ Walz who beat #5 in finals.

so to recap

Suriano - 2/3
Jimmy - ?? needs good draw
Zain - 1
Nolf - 1
Cenzo - 4
Hall - 4/5
Bo - 2/3
Cutch 5/6
Hwy 4

Nick Nevills should be 3 seed....

 

[21Guns]

Nickal does NOT need to avoid Martin

Yeah, he does. Martin horsed him today.

 

[tuggerjug]

IMO Cenzo will be the 3. He won the bigger match with Jordan and widened the gap.

Per NCAA criteria for at large wild cards are as follows:

head-to-head competition; quality wins; coaches ranking; results against common opponents; RPI; qualifying event placement; and winning percentage.

let's see how Cenzo stacks up against Jordan

head to head - even
quality wins - cenzo
cenzo 7 top 20 best jordan, rogers, walsh
jordan 6 top 20 (inc. Marinelli) best cenzo, Steiert, matthews
coaches ranking - cenzo (so long as they vote before nat'l)
before this weekend it was Jordan 3 cenzo 4 - don't know if they do another ranking before nationals (seems logical that they do) if so, I assume cenzo jumps Jordan based on last win
results against common opponents - cenzo
they each won all matches against common opponents but difference is Cenzo MD Burcher and pinned Wanzek vs close dec vs Jordan
RPI - Cenzo
Cenzo was 2 vs Jordan 4
qualifying event placement - cenzo
win percentage - jordan 24-4 vs joseph 17-4

Seems clear from this that #3 should go to Cenzo...

 

[LemonPie]

Subjeck loss will make Joseph the 4-seed

 

[tuggerjug]

sorry this got embedded in last post...

If NCAA uses similar criteria on seeding as they do for at large wild cards its as follows:

head-to-head competition; quality wins; coaches ranking; results against common opponents; RPI; qualifying event placement; and winning percentage.

let's see how Cenzo stacks up against Jordan

head to head - even
quality wins - cenzo
cenzo 7 top 20 best jordan, rogers, walsh
jordan 6 top 20 (inc. Marinelli) best cenzo, Steiert, matthews
coaches ranking - cenzo (so long as they vote before nat'l)
before this weekend it was Jordan 3 cenzo 4 - don't know if they do another ranking before nationals (seems logical that they do) if so, I assume cenzo jumps Jordan based on last win
results against common opponents - cenzo
they each won all matches against common opponents but difference is Cenzo MD Burcher and pinned Wanzek vs close dec vs Jordan
RPI - Cenzo
Cenzo was 2 vs Jordan 4
qualifying event placement - cenzo
win percentage - jordan 24-4 vs joseph 17-4

Seems clear from this that #3 should go to Cenzo if they use same criteria...

I do wonder if fact that Jordan is 3 time AA gives him an intangible that overcomes similar resumes'

 

[El-Jefe]

sorry this got embedded in last post...

If NCAA uses similar criteria on seeding as they do for at large wild cards its as follows:

head-to-head competition; quality wins; coaches ranking; results against common opponents; RPI; qualifying event placement; and winning percentage.

let's see how Cenzo stacks up against Jordan

head to head - even
quality wins - cenzo
cenzo 7 top 20 best jordan, rogers, walsh
jordan 6 top 20 (inc. Marinelli) best cenzo, Steiert, matthews
coaches ranking - cenzo (so long as they vote before nat'l)
before this weekend it was Jordan 3 cenzo 4 - don't know if they do another ranking before nationals (seems logical that they do) if so, I assume cenzo jumps Jordan based on last win
results against common opponents - cenzo
they each won all matches against common opponents but difference is Cenzo MD Burcher and pinned Wanzek vs close dec vs Jordan
RPI - Cenzo
Cenzo was 2 vs Jordan 4
qualifying event placement - cenzo
win percentage - jordan 24-4 vs joseph 17-4

Seems clear from this that #3 should go to Cenzo if they use same criteria...

I do wonder if fact that Jordan is 3 time AA gives him an intangible that overcomes similar resumes'

Yes, but Cenzo loses the Penn State Pessimism criterion.

Wait, you say there is no such thing?

 

[NYWRESTLER94]

133 will probably be
1. Tomasello
2. Gross
3. Brock
4. Clark

Since Mayes won the MAC I think 149 will be
1. Retheford
2/3 Collica, Mayes
4. Jordan
5. Sorensen
Sorensens loss to lugo will make things more interesting where he possibly could go 6 instead of 5 (which Iowa fans might not mind)

184 I believe will be
1. Dean
2. Nickal (maybe 3)
3. Brooks
4. Boyd
5. Zavatsky
6. Martin
7. Dudley

 

[tuggerjug]

OK so got better clarification on how seeding is supposed to work

head-to-head competition - 25% ; quality wins - 20%; coaches ranking - 15%; results against common opponents - 10%; RPI - 10%; qualifying event placement - 10%; and winning percentage - 10%

125 - I think Dance will leapfrog Suriano for the #2 seed - he was ahead in both RPI and coaches poll before the weekend has better event placement and winning percentage - Nick's got him on common opponents beat Cruz (which is only guy to beat Dance) and quality wins. Can't see Cruz or Lambert passing Nick as Nick has head to head, quality wins, coaches RPI and results against common opponents

165 - Cenzo vs Jordan for #3 - head to head is a push, cenzo gets quality wins, common opponents (by margin of victory against common opponents), coaches, RPI and qualifying placement. Jordan only gets winning percentage. Can't see how they give it to Jordan based on this criteria

174 - Zahid, Realbuto and BoJo, 1, 2, 3 - #4 is either Epperly or Hall. no head to head. quality wins and common opponents goes to Mark (Epperly has only lost to Preisch), Epperly gets coaches, RPI, qualifying event and winning % - gotta assume based on this that Epperly is the 4 and Hall is the 5. Only others in contention for #5 would be Preisch and Crutch and Hall has head to head against both

184 - Bo has head to head, quality wins, coaches, RPI, winning percentage - common opponents probably cancels out as Brooks beat MM twice but lost to Nate Jackson. Brooks has advantage of conf placement. Anyway you slice it Bo has to be either 2 or 3. Boyd gets the #4 seed. and I think ZZavatsky has gets #5 over MM. He's got head to head, coaches, conf placement and winning percentage - MM has quality wins, RPI. common opponents is non-factor.

197 - Cox, Moore, Haught, Pfarr are locked in as top 4. Next group is Cutch, Wiegel, Smith and Studebaker and its a total cluster F. Wiegel has the edge in RPI, coaches, conf placement on all of them and they are all roughly same winning percentage. cutch has head to head, quality wins and winning % - common opponents are a wash vs Wiegel so Cutch over Wiegel - cutch vs Smith - no head to head - Smith has edge in quality wins, common opponents, coaches and conf placement - Cutch has RPI and winning percentage Smith over Cutch
Cutch vs Studebaker - head to head is a push, Cutch gets him RPI, conf placement and winning percentage, Studebaker barely edges on quality wins and RPI - common opponents is a wash - slight edge to Cutch over Studebaker - Smith vs Studabaker - smith with head to head, quality wins, coaches and conf placement and winning % Smith over Studebaker Smith vs Wiegel - does default count as head to head win? I don't think it does so push there, Smith has qualtiy wins, coaches, winning % and common opponents Smith over Weigel.

So I think it works out 5 - Smith, 6 Cutch, 7 Weigel and 8 Studebaker

Hwy - walz vs NN for #3 . no head to head, quality of wins is a dead heat, common opponents are a wash, Walz has RPI, coaches, conf placement and winning % Walz over NN for #3

Summary
125 - Nick # 3 - Dance #2
165 - Cenzo #3 - Jordan #4
174 - Zahid, Realbuto, BoJo, Epperly, Hall
184 - Dean, Bo, Brooks, Boyd, Zavatsky, MMartin
197 - Cox, Moore, Haught, Pfarr, Smith, Cutch, Weigel, Studebaker
Hwy - Snyder, Medberry, Walz, Nevills

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

Great stuff. THIS is the kind of post I like to read on here.

 

[El-Jefe]

OK so got better clarification on how seeding is supposed to work

head-to-head competition - 25% ; quality wins - 20%; coaches ranking - 15%; results against common opponents - 10%; RPI - 10%; qualifying event placement - 10%; and winning percentage - 10%

125 - I think Dance will leapfrog Suriano for the #2 seed - he was ahead in both RPI and coaches poll before the weekend has better event placement and winning percentage - Nick's got him on common opponents beat Cruz (which is only guy to beat Dance) and quality wins. Can't see Cruz or Lambert passing Nick as Nick has head to head, quality wins, coaches RPI and results against common opponents

165 - Cenzo vs Jordan for #3 - head to head is a push, cenzo gets quality wins, common opponents (by margin of victory against common opponents), coaches, RPI and qualifying placement. Jordan only gets winning percentage. Can't see how they give it to Jordan based on this criteria

174 - Zahid, Realbuto and BoJo, 1, 2, 3 - #4 is either Epperly or Hall. no head to head. quality wins and common opponents goes to Mark (Epperly has only lost to Preisch), Epperly gets coaches, RPI, qualifying event and winning % - gotta assume based on this that Epperly is the 4 and Hall is the 5. Only others in contention for #5 would be Preisch and Crutch and Hall has head to head against both

184 - Bo has head to head, quality wins, coaches, RPI, winning percentage - common opponents probably cancels out as Brooks beat MM twice but lost to Nate Jackson. Brooks has advantage of conf placement. Anyway you slice it Bo has to be either 2 or 3. Boyd gets the #4 seed. and I think ZZavatsky has gets #5 over MM. He's got head to head, coaches, conf placement and winning percentage - MM has quality wins, RPI. common opponents is non-factor.

197 - Cox, Moore, Haught, Pfarr are locked in as top 4. Next group is Cutch, Wiegel, Smith and Studebaker and its a total cluster F. Wiegel has the edge in RPI, coaches, conf placement on all of them and they are all roughly same winning percentage. cutch has head to head, quality wins and winning % - common opponents are a wash vs Wiegel so Cutch over Wiegel - cutch vs Smith - no head to head - Smith has edge in quality wins, common opponents, coaches and conf placement - Cutch has RPI and winning percentage Smith over Cutch
Cutch vs Studebaker - head to head is a push, Cutch gets him RPI, conf placement and winning percentage, Studebaker barely edges on quality wins and RPI - common opponents is a wash - slight edge to Cutch over Studebaker - Smith vs Studabaker - smith with head to head, quality wins, coaches and conf placement and winning % Smith over Studebaker Smith vs Wiegel - does default count as head to head win? I don't think it does so push there, Smith has qualtiy wins, coaches, winning % and common opponents Smith over Weigel.

So I think it works out 5 - Smith, 6 Cutch, 7 Weigel and 8 Studebaker

Hwy - walz vs NN for #3 . no head to head, quality of wins is a dead heat, common opponents are a wash, Walz has RPI, coaches, conf placement and winning % Walz over NN for #3

Summary
125 - Nick # 3 - Dance #2
165 - Cenzo #3 - Jordan #4
174 - Zahid, Realbuto, BoJo, Epperly, Hall
184 - Dean, Bo, Brooks, Boyd, Zavatsky, MMartin
197 - Cox, Moore, Haught, Pfarr, Smith, Cutch, Weigel, Studebaker
Hwy - Snyder, Medberry, Walz, Nevills

Great work!

I will be horribly disappointed (translated: dancing in the streets) if Mouse gets seeded away from Cox as projected.

 

[LemonPie]

Why do you have Haught as the 3-seed? He got obliterated by Pfarr. He will be 4. Need Cutch as the 5-seed. Between him and Jake Smith. Wish Smith would have wrestled in the finals and lost to Weigel, but hope he gets punished for not wrestling.

 

[LemonPie]

Joseph quarterfinal possibilities- Valencia/Walsh/Lewis

Nickal- Jackson/Zavatsky/Boyd/Martin

Cutch- Pfarr or Haught

Nevills- Kasper or Schafer

 

[RoarLions1]

IMO Cenzo will be the 3. He won the bigger match with Jordan and widened the gap.

Lewis likely will not pass either of them -- was recently decked.by UNI's Steiert and earlier by Rogers. Avenged both, but hard to ignore falls against.

I'm with El-Jefe...Cenzo gets the 3-spot. We'll know soon enough. The NCAA Committee uses all available info, though the Coaches Ranking is held higher than InterMat or other rankings, since it's easier to defend. Conference tournament hth are essentially tie-breakers. It is body of work-related, but the Subjeck loss was early and may be discounted a little.

 

[CowboyUp61]

Why do you have Haught as the 3-seed? He got obliterated by Pfarr. He will be 4. Need Cutch as the 5-seed. Between him and Jake Smith. Wish Smith would have wrestled in the finals and lost to Weigel, but hope he gets punished for not wrestling.

Lemon, Smith did wrestle in the finals, and a pin was called before the ref noted the injury-although a lot of people heard the snap as Wiegel drove him over to his back. I don't know if they will score it a fall, or an INJ officially. I don't think he will be there in two weeks-they took him by ambulance during the HWT match.

 

[Lyco1990]

Lemon, Smith did wrestle in the finals, and a pin was called before the ref noted the injury-although a lot of people heard the snap as Wiegel drove him over to his back. I don't know if they will score it a fall, or an INJ officially. I don't think he will be there in two weeks-they took him by ambulance during the HWT match.

That is terrible. I hate injuries grrrr. I truly hope nothing serious.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

Fyi, NCAA selection show will be this Wednesday, March 8th at 6pm.

 

[LemonPie]

Lemon, Smith did wrestle in the finals, and a pin was called before the ref noted the injury-although a lot of people heard the snap as Wiegel drove him over to his back. I don't know if they will score it a fall, or an INJ officially. I don't think he will be there in two weeks-they took him by ambulance during the HWT match.

Ah, my bad. Obviously didn't watch it. Thanks. Sucks for Smith

 

[Cowbell Man]

OK so got better clarification on how seeding is supposed to work


Summary
125 - Nick # 3 - Dance #2
165 - Cenzo #3 - Jordan #4
174 - Zahid, Realbuto, BoJo, Epperly, Hall
184 - Dean, Bo, Brooks, Boyd, Zavatsky, MMartin
197 - Cox, Moore, Haught, Pfarr, Smith, Cutch, Weigel, Studebaker
Hwy - Snyder, Medberry, Walz, Nevills

I agree. This is what I have, with exception of the middle of 197. That's as clear a mud but as good a guess as any.

 

[JBott]

Fyi, NCAA selection show will be this Wednesday, March 8th at 6pm.

BTN?

 

[CowboyUp61]

OK so got better clarification on how seeding is supposed to work

197 - Cox, Moore, Haught, Pfarr are locked in as top 4. Next group is Cutch, Wiegel, Smith and Studebaker and its a total cluster F. Wiegel has the edge in RPI, coaches, conf placement on all of them and they are all roughly same winning percentage. cutch has head to head, quality wins and winning % - common opponents are a wash vs Wiegel so Cutch over Wiegel - cutch vs Smith - no head to head - Smith has edge in quality wins, common opponents, coaches and conf placement - Cutch has RPI and winning percentage Smith over Cutch
Cutch vs Studebaker - head to head is a push, Cutch gets him RPI, conf placement and winning percentage, Studebaker barely edges on quality wins and RPI - common opponents is a wash - slight edge to Cutch over Studebaker - Smith vs Studabaker - smith with head to head, quality wins, coaches and conf placement and winning % Smith over Studebaker Smith vs Wiegel - does default count as head to head win? I don't think it does so push there, Smith has qualtiy wins, coaches, winning % and common opponents Smith over Weigel.

So I think it works out 5 - Smith, 6 Cutch, 7 Weigel and 8 Studebaker


197 - Cox, Moore, Haught, Pfarr, Smith, Cutch, Weigel, Studebaker

Great summary. Only thing that I might add is a doubt that Smith will be able to compete. Hope that isn't the case, but it may bump everything behind him up one spot if it is

 

[Flying_Tiger]

BTN?

NCAA.COM

 

[Real-Lion]

Need Nickal to get the 2 seed to avoid Martin's side of the bracket. Martin will be 6 seed.

Bo will beat Martin next time...Maybe by major....Bo wants to be on the same side if you ask him....He will be more then ready for Nationals...He will be the champ at 184....

 

[tuggerjug]

I don't doubt that Bo wants another crack at MM thats what makes the best the best but he's lost 3 times in college - twice to Martin. I don't doubt for a second he can beat him but I'm perfectly fine with letting Dean pound him again.

 

[LemonPie]

Quarterfinal round should be very interesting for Okie St. can't wait to see the brackets.

 

[JOESTROSSER]

Here's my take

125 - Contenders for #2/#3 - Nick, Cruz, Dance, maybe Lambert? Can't see how we don't out seed both Cruz and Lambert based on head to head wins - can see them giving Dance #2 and Nick #3

133 - doesn't matter

141 - up to matchups for Jimmy - can't expect more than a 2-2 type of weekend at this point

149 - Zain obvi #1 and Collica#2 no idea how they sort out Mayes, Jordan and Sorenson for 3/4/5 but I'd guess Mayes (is 1-1 vs Collica and loss to Thomsen and Intermat has Mayes #3 - I feel like Intermat is preferred by committee - could be pulling that out of butt though), Jordan and Sorenson. Could see them rewarding Jordan based on strength of schedule Big 10 record and him leap frogging Mayes.

157 - doesn't matter

165 - very interesting - IMar and Massa are clear 1 and 2. Then have Cenzo, Jordan and Lewis? I find it hard to believe they slip Lewis ahead of either Jordan or Cenzo. 1-1 head to head - only thing that seperates them is Cenzo early season loss to Stanford......and that Cenzo won last head to head. I feel like they give the nod to returning two-time AA in Jordan and Cenzo is #4.

174 - Valencia - clear #1, gotta think Realbuto is the #2 and Bo is #3 - that leaves Hall at #4 - and possibly Epperly bumps him to #5 but same side and Valencia - can't see how Hall avoids Valencia side of bracket.

184 - Dean #1 - then up to Nickal, Brooks, Boyd, Zavatsky, Martin - Bo has head to head wins against them all so can't see both Brooks AND Boyd leapfrogging him so have to believe its Bo/Brooks (or vice-versa) then Boyd at #4. Have to believe Zavatsky gets #5 over Martin (ZZ has a head to head win and 2 other losses one to Dean and one to NCST which MM also lost to along with 2 other lower ranked guys - think this would have changed if MM won Big10s)

197 - Cox, Moore, Haught, Pfarr, then its up between Jake Smith, McCutch, Studebaker Wiegel - Cutch has as good a case as any for the 5th seed but I think we would want him as the #6 that would give him Haught in quarters and Moore in Semis - he has better chance against either of those guys than Pfarr and Cox (IMHO)

Hwt - Snyder, Medbury, Walz, then Nick - can't see them giving #3 to NN over ACC champ Walz who beat #5 in finals.

so to recap

Suriano - 2/3
Jimmy - ?? needs good draw
Zain - 1
Nolf - 1
Cenzo - 4
Hall - 4/5
Bo - 2/3
Cutch 5/6
Hwy 4

If I'm on the committee I go Joseph 3, Jordan 4. The bad loss to Subjeck was early, but Joseph wins head to head, win pct and RPI. Last year was lst year. Roar can chime in on the criteria, but I think Joseph has it going away.

 

[diggerpup]

I'm very curious at Oklahoma State seeds.

They definitely have a complete squad top to bottom.

Since they managed to get all 10 of their kids into conference title matches - and knowing how the B1G can be a meat grinder - I wonder how inflated the Cowboy seeds will be.

 

[RoarLions1]

If I'm on the committee I go Joseph 3, Jordan 4. The bad loss to Subjeck was early, but Joseph wins head to head, win pct and RPI. Last year was lst year. Roar can chime in on the criteria, but I think Joseph has it going away.

Similar criteria to the Bronze Standard rules, as follows;

●● Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
●● Quality wins —20 percent
●● CR —15 percent
●● Results against common opponents —10 percent
●● RPI —10 percent
●● Qualifying event placement —10 percent
●● Win % —10 percent

Joseph does not have it "going away" by any stretch. Both have 4 losses, 3 of Jordan's to Massa, one to Joseph...and Joseph has 2 to IMar, one to Jordan, and one to Subjeck. I'd give the HTH component to Joseph with a more recent win, and more dominant than the SV-1 win by Jordan earlier. Quality wins looks like a draw. CR favors Jordan, but that poll is retaken after the tournaments. Both have defeated a couple common opponents, most notably Wanzek...call it a draw. RPI favors Joseph. Qualifying event placement favors Joseph. Win % favors Jordan. I'm thinking Joseph by a nose.

 

[tuggerjug]

I'll take a crack a OSU seeds

125 - Gilman, DAnce, Suriano, Cruz, Lambert, Lizak (win over Picc), Russell (2 wins over Picc), Piccinnini gets #8 (probably gets Cruz in quarters or Gilman in Semis)

133 - Tomasello, Gross, Brock, I think those are pretty cut and dry - what will be interesting is how rest of bracket fills out with Clark, Forys, Micic and Parker. Forys beat Parker head to head has placement, winning % over all the rest. I think its probably up to Forys and Clark for the #4. Clark will have both RPI/coaches, no head to head/and quality wins is about even. I wonder if it comes down to placement. I'll go with Nato, Gross, Brock, Forys, Clark, Micic, Parker

141 - Heil, Jack, Mckeena, Kolodzik, Ashnault, DiCamillo - Kolodzik or Ashnault vs Heil in semis will test him and there's also Eierman out there - could get 8 seed and see Heil in quarters (Heil beat him earlier this year 8-6). I don't think Heil is anywhere close to the "lock" Zain or Nolf are to make finals.

149 - Zain, Collica, Mayes, Micah, Sorensen, Chisko- how do you seed Micah, Sorensen and Chisko? I think Micah gets nod over Sorensen based on placement, and common opponents (he beat Lugo) also gets nod over Chisko on common opponents (lugo beat chisko) win %, etc. will be interesting to see if they give Sorensen the nod over Chisko, Sorensen has edge in coaches/RPI (pending) - Chisko has placement, winning %, common opponents only Lugo - Chisko went 1-1 vs Lugo. Definitely case to be made for Chisko as #5 and Sorenson #6 but I'll go with Zain, Collica, Mayes, Micah, Sorensen, Chisko

157 Nolf, Kemerer, Lavalee, Palacio, Berger, Smith
Palacio and Smith both have limited wins based on injury but I think Palacio gets nod over smith based on less losses. I do wonder if they both get dinged to point where Berger can leapfrog them - he's only lost to Nolf and Kemerer and Murphy. I think he jumps Smith (who has 4 losses) He has edge in coaches/RPI (for now) quality wins, winning %

165 - IMar, Massa, Cenzo, Isaac, Lewis, Walsh, Rogers
Already went thru why Cenzo over Isaac. Lewis gets nod over both Walsh and Rogers - and I think Walsh over Rogers.

174 - Valencia, Realbuto, BoJo, Epperly, Hall (see explain in previous posts) Rest is up between Preisch, Crutch, Meyers. Crutch has the head to head over Meyers I think thats differentiator - rest is very similar between 3. so I think its Crutch as 6, Meyer (based on win over Hall) and Preisch. That means Crutch get Jordan in quarters

184 - Dean, Bo, Brooks, Boyd, Zavatsky, MMartin (see previous post for explanation)
197 - Cox, Moore, Pfarr, Haught, Smith, Cutch, Weigel, Studebaker (see previous post for explanation revised Pfarr over Haught based on head to head)
Hwy - Snyder, Medberry, Walz, Nevills then Kasper, Schaffer Hall in some order. Kasper has win over Schaffer and more quality wins - I think he gets the 5 and Schaffer based on common opponents beats out Hall for 6 seed....which mean schaffer gets Walz in quarters and Snyder in semis.

Recap on OkSt Seeds

125 - Piccinni gets #8 and Cruz in quarters
133 - Brock gets #3 and likely Micic in quarters (thats gonna be good) then rematch with Gross if he makes Semis
141 - Heil #1 - with winner of Kolodzik/Ashnault in semis and may get Eierman in quarter who he only beat 8-6 during year
149 - Collica #2 - gets a Thomsen or Lugo in quarters (not friendly) and Mayes in semis
157 - Smith #6 and gets Lavalee in quarters
165 - Rogers #7 and Massa in quarters
174 - Crutch #6 and BoJo in quarters
184 - Boyd #4 gets Zavatsky in quarters
197 - Weigel #7 gets Moore in quarters
Hwy - Schaffer #6 and gets Walz in quarters

I really don't see any "locks" for finals

 

[Grass]

I'll take a crack a OSU seeds

125 - Gilman, DAnce, Suriano, Cruz, Lambert, Lizak (win over Picc), Russell (2 wins over Picc), Piccinnini gets #8 (probably gets Cruz in quarters or Gilman in Semis)

133 - Tomasello, Gross, Brock, I think those are pretty cut and dry - what will be interesting is how rest of bracket fills out with Clark, Forys, Micic and Parker. Forys beat Parker head to head has placement, winning % over all the rest. I think its probably up to Forys and Clark for the #4. Clark will have both RPI/coaches, no head to head/and quality wins is about even. I wonder if it comes down to placement. I'll go with Nato, Gross, Brock, Forys, Clark, Micic, Parker

141 - Heil, Jack, Mckeena, Kolodzik, Ashnault, DiCamillo - Kolodzik or Ashnault vs Heil in semis will test him and there's also Eierman out there - could get 8 seed and see Heil in quarters (Heil beat him earlier this year 8-6). I don't think Heil is anywhere close to the "lock" Zain or Nolf are to make finals.

149 - Zain, Collica, Mayes, Micah, Sorensen, Chisko- how do you seed Micah, Sorensen and Chisko? I think Micah gets nod over Sorensen based on placement, and common opponents (he beat Lugo) also gets nod over Chisko on common opponents (lugo beat chisko) win %, etc. will be interesting to see if they give Sorensen the nod over Chisko, Sorensen has edge in coaches/RPI (pending) - Chisko has placement, winning %, common opponents only Lugo - Chisko went 1-1 vs Lugo. Definitely case to be made for Chisko as #5 and Sorenson #6 but I'll go with Zain, Collica, Mayes, Micah, Sorensen, Chisko

157 Nolf, Kemerer, Lavalee, Palacio, Berger, Smith
Palacio and Smith both have limited wins based on injury but I think Palacio gets nod over smith based on less losses. I do wonder if they both get dinged to point where Berger can leapfrog them - he's only lost to Nolf and Kemerer and Murphy. I think he jumps Smith (who has 4 losses) He has edge in coaches/RPI (for now) quality wins, winning %

165 - IMar, Massa, Cenzo, Isaac, Lewis, Walsh, Rogers
Already went thru why Cenzo over Isaac. Lewis gets nod over both Walsh and Rogers - and I think Walsh over Rogers.

174 - Valencia, Realbuto, BoJo, Epperly, Hall (see explain in previous posts) Rest is up between Preisch, Crutch, Meyers. Crutch has the head to head over Meyers I think thats differentiator - rest is very similar between 3. so I think its Crutch as 6, Meyer (based on win over Hall) and Preisch. That means Crutch get Jordan in quarters

184 - Dean, Bo, Brooks, Boyd, Zavatsky, MMartin (see previous post for explanation)
197 - Cox, Moore, Pfarr, Haught, Smith, Cutch, Weigel, Studebaker (see previous post for explanation revised Pfarr over Haught based on head to head)
Hwy - Snyder, Medberry, Walz, Nevills then Kasper, Schaffer Hall in some order. Kasper has win over Schaffer and more quality wins - I think he gets the 5 and Schaffer based on common opponents beats out Hall for 6 seed....which mean schaffer gets Walz in quarters and Snyder in semis.

Recap on OkSt Seeds

125 - Piccinni gets #8 and Cruz in quarters
133 - Brock gets #3 and likely Micic in quarters (thats gonna be good) then rematch with Gross if he makes Semis
141 - Heil #1 - with winner of Kolodzik/Ashnault in semis and may get Eierman in quarter who he only beat 8-6 during year
149 - Collica #2 - gets a Thomsen or Lugo in quarters (not friendly) and Mayes in semis
157 - Smith #6 and gets Lavalee in quarters
165 - Rogers #7 and Massa in quarters
174 - Crutch #6 and BoJo in quarters
184 - Boyd #4 gets Zavatsky in quarters
197 - Weigel #7 gets Moore in quarters
Hwy - Schaffer #6 and gets Walz in quarters

I really don't see any "locks" for finals

If BoJo and Crutch do in fact meet in the quarters we might not be far enough along in the tournament to know who to root for.

 

[diggerpup]

I'll take a crack a OSU seeds

125 - Gilman, DAnce, Suriano, Cruz, Lambert, Lizak (win over Picc), Russell (2 wins over Picc), Piccinnini gets #8 (probably gets Cruz in quarters or Gilman in Semis)

133 - Tomasello, Gross, Brock, I think those are pretty cut and dry - what will be interesting is how rest of bracket fills out with Clark, Forys, Micic and Parker. Forys beat Parker head to head has placement, winning % over all the rest. I think its probably up to Forys and Clark for the #4. Clark will have both RPI/coaches, no head to head/and quality wins is about even. I wonder if it comes down to placement. I'll go with Nato, Gross, Brock, Forys, Clark, Micic, Parker

141 - Heil, Jack, Mckeena, Kolodzik, Ashnault, DiCamillo - Kolodzik or Ashnault vs Heil in semis will test him and there's also Eierman out there - could get 8 seed and see Heil in quarters (Heil beat him earlier this year 8-6). I don't think Heil is anywhere close to the "lock" Zain or Nolf are to make finals.

149 - Zain, Collica, Mayes, Micah, Sorensen, Chisko- how do you seed Micah, Sorensen and Chisko? I think Micah gets nod over Sorensen based on placement, and common opponents (he beat Lugo) also gets nod over Chisko on common opponents (lugo beat chisko) win %, etc. will be interesting to see if they give Sorensen the nod over Chisko, Sorensen has edge in coaches/RPI (pending) - Chisko has placement, winning %, common opponents only Lugo - Chisko went 1-1 vs Lugo. Definitely case to be made for Chisko as #5 and Sorenson #6 but I'll go with Zain, Collica, Mayes, Micah, Sorensen, Chisko

157 Nolf, Kemerer, Lavalee, Palacio, Berger, Smith
Palacio and Smith both have limited wins based on injury but I think Palacio gets nod over smith based on less losses. I do wonder if they both get dinged to point where Berger can leapfrog them - he's only lost to Nolf and Kemerer and Murphy. I think he jumps Smith (who has 4 losses) He has edge in coaches/RPI (for now) quality wins, winning %

165 - IMar, Massa, Cenzo, Isaac, Lewis, Walsh, Rogers
Already went thru why Cenzo over Isaac. Lewis gets nod over both Walsh and Rogers - and I think Walsh over Rogers.

174 - Valencia, Realbuto, BoJo, Epperly, Hall (see explain in previous posts) Rest is up between Preisch, Crutch, Meyers. Crutch has the head to head over Meyers I think thats differentiator - rest is very similar between 3. so I think its Crutch as 6, Meyer (based on win over Hall) and Preisch. That means Crutch get Jordan in quarters

184 - Dean, Bo, Brooks, Boyd, Zavatsky, MMartin (see previous post for explanation)
197 - Cox, Moore, Pfarr, Haught, Smith, Cutch, Weigel, Studebaker (see previous post for explanation revised Pfarr over Haught based on head to head)
Hwy - Snyder, Medberry, Walz, Nevills then Kasper, Schaffer Hall in some order. Kasper has win over Schaffer and more quality wins - I think he gets the 5 and Schaffer based on common opponents beats out Hall for 6 seed....which mean schaffer gets Walz in quarters and Snyder in semis.

Recap on OkSt Seeds

125 - Piccinni gets #8 and Cruz in quarters
133 - Brock gets #3 and likely Micic in quarters (thats gonna be good) then rematch with Gross if he makes Semis
141 - Heil #1 - with winner of Kolodzik/Ashnault in semis and may get Eierman in quarter who he only beat 8-6 during year
149 - Collica #2 - gets a Thomsen or Lugo in quarters (not friendly) and Mayes in semis
157 - Smith #6 and gets Lavalee in quarters
165 - Rogers #7 and Massa in quarters
174 - Crutch #6 and BoJo in quarters
184 - Boyd #4 gets Zavatsky in quarters
197 - Weigel #7 gets Moore in quarters
Hwy - Schaffer #6 and gets Walz in quarters

I really don't see any "locks" for finals

Great work. Great effort.

The untrained eye will see "10 point scorers" for the Pokes, but the quarters & semis will be very challenging for them.

If Oklahoma State wants to win the title, they're going to need either multiple upsets or make a huge surge in wrestlebacks.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

...I'm thinking Joseph by an Italian nose.

FIFY (meaning it's not close... and yes, I'm Italian so I can say that)

 

[El-Jefe]

If that all turns out about right -- that's close to our best-case scenario for Poke seeds, isn't it?

Now to throw out a haymaker: CP updated his rankings and has Jimmy at #17. We all expect him to be unseeded, but what if he somehow got the #16, got past an unseeded guy, and then got Heil in Round 2?

 

[diggerpup]

I hope JoJo gets the 5 seed, it would be a win/win for PSU fans.

He'd be a slight underdog in the quarters, and losing would force him to survive a R12 match.

If JoJo would happen to beat the 4 seed in the quarters, then his (and our) prize would be another opportunity to get completely rag-dolled and broken by Nolf on live national TV Friday night.

The same goes for Micah Jordan at 149 (5 seed)

#closingthegap

 

[tuggerjug]

Pyles on Flo just posted his up to date rankings - they are rankings instead of seedings so I think there's some difference but he has as follows

125 same as me! - Nick #2 Picc #8
133 same top 3 as me with Brock #3 - then has Clark, Micic Montoya Richards and then Forys. I think this weight that gets seeded different than "rankings". I agree that those guys are better than Forys but think Forys has meets seeding criteria to jump some of them.
141 - same as me! - he has Meredith as 8 seed and Eierman 10 - that could change in seedings too as Eierman won conference
149 - hes got Micah 3 Mayes 4 Sorensen 5 Lugo 6 Chisko 7 Thomsen 8. again I think that gets shuffled a bit in seedings
157 - same as me except hes got Berger as 4 and Palacio 5 Smith same at 6
165 - Cenzo #3 same as me except he has Steiert at 7 and Cottrell at 8 - Rogers at #11. I don't like Rogers floating around - he's a bracket buster based on his pinning ability
174 - he's got Hall 4 Epperly 5 Preisch 6 and Crutch 7
184 - Bo #2 - he's got Martin 4th, Dudley 5th, Boyd 6th - again from seeding purposes can't see how Martin gets it over Boyd
197 - couple changes here - he's got Pfarr 2 Moore 3 Hought 4 Cutch 5 Studebaker 6 weigel 7 Smith 8
Hwy - same as me!

 

[rmg78]

I'll take a crack a OSU seeds

125 - Gilman, DAnce, Suriano, Cruz, Lambert, Lizak (win over Picc), Russell (2 wins over Picc), Piccinnini gets #8 (probably gets Cruz in quarters or Gilman in Semis)

133 - Tomasello, Gross, Brock, I think those are pretty cut and dry - what will be interesting is how rest of bracket fills out with Clark, Forys, Micic and Parker. Forys beat Parker head to head has placement, winning % over all the rest. I think its probably up to Forys and Clark for the #4. Clark will have both RPI/coaches, no head to head/and quality wins is about even. I wonder if it comes down to placement. I'll go with Nato, Gross, Brock, Forys, Clark, Micic, Parker

141 - Heil, Jack, Mckeena, Kolodzik, Ashnault, DiCamillo - Kolodzik or Ashnault vs Heil in semis will test him and there's also Eierman out there - could get 8 seed and see Heil in quarters (Heil beat him earlier this year 8-6). I don't think Heil is anywhere close to the "lock" Zain or Nolf are to make finals.

149 - Zain, Collica, Mayes, Micah, Sorensen, Chisko- how do you seed Micah, Sorensen and Chisko? I think Micah gets nod over Sorensen based on placement, and common opponents (he beat Lugo) also gets nod over Chisko on common opponents (lugo beat chisko) win %, etc. will be interesting to see if they give Sorensen the nod over Chisko, Sorensen has edge in coaches/RPI (pending) - Chisko has placement, winning %, common opponents only Lugo - Chisko went 1-1 vs Lugo. Definitely case to be made for Chisko as #5 and Sorenson #6 but I'll go with Zain, Collica, Mayes, Micah, Sorensen, Chisko

157 Nolf, Kemerer, Lavalee, Palacio, Berger, Smith
Palacio and Smith both have limited wins based on injury but I think Palacio gets nod over smith based on less losses. I do wonder if they both get dinged to point where Berger can leapfrog them - he's only lost to Nolf and Kemerer and Murphy. I think he jumps Smith (who has 4 losses) He has edge in coaches/RPI (for now) quality wins, winning %

165 - IMar, Massa, Cenzo, Isaac, Lewis, Walsh, Rogers
Already went thru why Cenzo over Isaac. Lewis gets nod over both Walsh and Rogers - and I think Walsh over Rogers.

174 - Valencia, Realbuto, BoJo, Epperly, Hall (see explain in previous posts) Rest is up between Preisch, Crutch, Meyers. Crutch has the head to head over Meyers I think thats differentiator - rest is very similar between 3. so I think its Crutch as 6, Meyer (based on win over Hall) and Preisch. That means Crutch get Jordan in quarters

184 - Dean, Bo, Brooks, Boyd, Zavatsky, MMartin (see previous post for explanation)
197 - Cox, Moore, Pfarr, Haught, Smith, Cutch, Weigel, Studebaker (see previous post for explanation revised Pfarr over Haught based on head to head)
Hwy - Snyder, Medberry, Walz, Nevills then Kasper, Schaffer Hall in some order. Kasper has win over Schaffer and more quality wins - I think he gets the 5 and Schaffer based on common opponents beats out Hall for 6 seed....which mean schaffer gets Walz in quarters and Snyder in semis.

Recap on OkSt Seeds

125 - Piccinni gets #8 and Cruz in quarters
133 - Brock gets #3 and likely Micic in quarters (thats gonna be good) then rematch with Gross if he makes Semis
141 - Heil #1 - with winner of Kolodzik/Ashnault in semis and may get Eierman in quarter who he only beat 8-6 during year
149 - Collica #2 - gets a Thomsen or Lugo in quarters (not friendly) and Mayes in semis
157 - Smith #6 and gets Lavalee in quarters
165 - Rogers #7 and Massa in quarters
174 - Crutch #6 and BoJo in quarters
184 - Boyd #4 gets Zavatsky in quarters
197 - Weigel #7 gets Moore in quarters
Hwy - Schaffer #6 and gets Walz in quarters

I really don't see any "locks" for finals

If Picc is #8 he would get Gilman quarterfinals, right? Thus no semi's.