I don't think many people think Cael is untouchable at recruiting -- if anything, when someone commits elsewhere, the responses are generally split between sigh can't get them all vs. that's OK he'll get the next one. Occasionally some joker will say Cael is losing his touch.
Cael will definitely have to work to get Shapiro. That said, if I'm looking to land a Top 5 guy, many other coaches I'd worry about before Manning: Brands, Tan Tom, Smith, Bormet, Zeke, Koll, Grey, Reina. At least. Even Eggum.
Manning is great at landing guys a level or two below that, and compiling a very good if not top team.