A very simpleton analysis on short notice. We still look good, but it's tight.
No guarantee we get the same points at Nationals, but for discussion purposes lets say the 68.5 points that 149, 157 and 174 from l last year is repeated at 149, 157 and 184 this year. Last year 133, 141, 165, 285 produced 13.5 pts(9,3,1.5,0). Joseph and Nevills get about 21 if they hold serve based on ranking not counting any bonus. Assume 0 at 133 and 141 so 21-13.5 = +7.5
So what's left?
125, 174/184(swapped for discussion) and 197. 41 points last year so that is huge.
125 13.5 point with no bonus.
174 1.5 points, 1 win in championship and 1 in consi.
197 1.5 points 1 in championship and 1 in consi.
SO that's 41 last season, 16.5 this season. Net -24.5
7.5-24.5 = -17 points using a conservative model
We won by 25.5 so 8.5 points which is a small cushion. However, I do think Joseph, Suriano and Nevills get some bonus and 133 if Cortez healthy brings in some points.
Too early on the pull or not pull Hall shirt.