Roar’s Annual Big Ten Seeding Review: 2025
- Thread starter RoarLions1
- Start date
I don't think the math says much. Assuming Iowa does not crap the bed, ala NC State last year, and they are in a tight race for second the most likely competition for that spot is OK State. The B1G dropping a qualifier has no meaningful effect there. The most likely in conference challenge comes from the three headed monster of Nebraska, Minnesota, and Ohio State (they are cheek by jowl in my projections). With those three teams holding #2, #3, and #5 in Roars seeds it is certainly possible that one of them could fail to qualify a wrestler in a reduced B1G allocation scenario. But the odds of two or more not qualifying seems meaningfully tiny.
Footnote: The British choice of maths makes sense if you squint. Sure we call physics physics. Fine. But it used to drive me bonkers when they would say Goldmans or Merrills when referring to Goldman Sachs or Merrill Lynch. There is only one of each. And now there isn't even that.
If Pinto or Kharchla finish outside the qualifying spot they will almost assuredly get at-large bids. Whiting not 100% sure but would have a good chance depending on what happens at other conference tournaments.
1. If Brands goes in the postseason, then yes.
2. At B10s? Nobody cares.
At NCAAs, this could hurt Iowa -- Brands would get a low seed with a tough opener. Certainly a much worse draw than Kennedy would get.
Remember, they can't switch names after B10s.
3. Lol
Such a move only makes sense if Iowa thinks Brands - who scores no bonus -- can go deeper into NCAAs than Kennedy despite a much lower seed.
Brands could make a 2 match run on the back side.
Yeah, the caring is that the cannot switch names. I bet Gabe cares. And there is the Ryan-son strategery to drop to the consolation bracket immediately, where bonus could help make up for lesser advancement points.
We'll all see how it plays out, and any fall out in a few weeks.
Iowa fans clamoring for Brands are basing it on 2023 when he finished 5th. He beat Faison from NC State in the first round and then beat 6 seed Ethan Smith of Ohio St to make the quarters. Lost to Mekhi Lewis and then beat Ed Ruth and Peyton Mocco, lost to Chris Foca and then beat Plott for 5th. I don't see him making a run like that again. Also, I see Kennedy as a far better bonus option, especially on the back side. I guess we will see.
LOL! I did not. I meant Edmond Ruth.
To momentarily take Brands 174 Postaeason seriously: he would be a real outlier for NCAA seeding:
- Low/no ranking
- Win % around 65% after the conference tourney
- No RPI
- No regular season Quality Wins
- TBD conference placement but he's not making the finals
These guys happen very infrequently.
In 2024, the only somewhat comparable was Missouri 133 Kade Moore, who was 11-5 and thus did have an RPI. He went 1-2 at B12s but beat Latona and Basile in the regular season. He was the 26 seed.
The only 2023 comparable was Teske: 9-4, no regular seaaon QWs, 7th at B10s. He got the 23.
Meanwhile, Kennedy would likely be around the 8 seed. He's 8th in the poll, projected 10th RPI, and has about 5 QWs so far.
- Low/no ranking
- Win % around 65% after the conference tourney
- No RPI
- No regular season Quality Wins
- TBD conference placement but he's not making the finals
These guys happen very infrequently.
In 2024, the only somewhat comparable was Missouri 133 Kade Moore, who was 11-5 and thus did have an RPI. He went 1-2 at B12s but beat Latona and Basile in the regular season. He was the 26 seed.
The only 2023 comparable was Teske: 9-4, no regular seaaon QWs, 7th at B10s. He got the 23.
Meanwhile, Kennedy would likely be around the 8 seed. He's 8th in the poll, projected 10th RPI, and has about 5 QWs so far.
He is there now. I rewrote that section and edited the original post.
Thanks!!...not sure how I missed him, he is in my notes.
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Sorry if asked and answered, but would Brands getting the nod over PK for Philly, and darling boy Arnold getting it next year for 174 send PK hurtling through the portal?
Three weight classes to go; 157, 165 and 285. Think I'll save 157 for last!
184 Pounds
#1 Carter Starocci (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Max McEnelly (MINN, 8-0)
#3 Silas Allred (NEB, 5-2)
#4 Gabe Arnold (IA, 5-2)
#5 Jaxon Smith (MD, 6-2)
#6 Edmond Ruth (ILL, 5-3)
#7 Shane Cartegena-Walsh RUT, 4-4)
#8 Ryder Rogotzke (tOSU, 3-5)
#9 Donnell Washington (IND, 3-3)
#10 Jaden Bullock (MICH, 2-6)
The rest: Jon Halverson (NU, 2-4), Orlando Cruz (PUR, 2-5), Lucas Daly (MSU, 0-5), Dylan Russo (WIS, 0-7)
The contrast between the top two guys is obvious, but they have one thing in common – both are 8-0 in Big Ten conference duals. One is a sixth year senior out to make history, the other a redshirt freshman who has yet to lose in college and only starting what has the potential to be a great career. Still, #1 Carter Starocci (PSU) is an easy pick for top seed, far outdistancing #2 Max McEnelly (MINN). The Golden Gopher has done everything asked, but Starocci is a special kind of good. McEnelly has wins over #3 Silas Allred (NEB) and #4 Gabe Arnold (IA), as does Starocci. Oops, just kidding, Arnold didn’t take the mat against Penn State!! But when and if he does, I’m going Starocci. Book it! (Sorry, not a fan of spouting off)
#3 Allred owns a HTH win over #4 Arnold, clinching the higher seed. Arnold is not an offensive dynamo, with only three takedowns in his first six conference duals before “exploding” for 13 points against Wrestlestat’s #95 wrestler in the Hawkeye’s final Big Ten dual. Good thing his defense is solid, as he has been in every single bout he has wrestled. Arnold does have HTH wins over my next two seeds.
In what has become the easiest weight class to seed, #5 Jaxon Smith (MD) has a HTH win over #6 Edmund Ruth (ILL). Ruth has a HTH win over #7 Shane Cartegena-Walsh (RUT). Cartegena-Walsh has a HTH win over #8 Ryder Rogotzke (tOSU). Rogotzke has a HTH win over #9 Donnell Washington (IND). #10 Jaden Bullock (MICH) finishes my top ten. Looking back at seeds #5 through #10, it doesn’t get any easier than what I found during my 184 review. Each lost to the guys in front of them and beat the guys behind them. Not a single bout caused even a speck of doubt in my seeding. Come on Big Ten, get it right!
184 Pounds
#1 Carter Starocci (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Max McEnelly (MINN, 8-0)
#3 Silas Allred (NEB, 5-2)
#4 Gabe Arnold (IA, 5-2)
#5 Jaxon Smith (MD, 6-2)
#6 Edmond Ruth (ILL, 5-3)
#7 Shane Cartegena-Walsh RUT, 4-4)
#8 Ryder Rogotzke (tOSU, 3-5)
#9 Donnell Washington (IND, 3-3)
#10 Jaden Bullock (MICH, 2-6)
The rest: Jon Halverson (NU, 2-4), Orlando Cruz (PUR, 2-5), Lucas Daly (MSU, 0-5), Dylan Russo (WIS, 0-7)
The contrast between the top two guys is obvious, but they have one thing in common – both are 8-0 in Big Ten conference duals. One is a sixth year senior out to make history, the other a redshirt freshman who has yet to lose in college and only starting what has the potential to be a great career. Still, #1 Carter Starocci (PSU) is an easy pick for top seed, far outdistancing #2 Max McEnelly (MINN). The Golden Gopher has done everything asked, but Starocci is a special kind of good. McEnelly has wins over #3 Silas Allred (NEB) and #4 Gabe Arnold (IA), as does Starocci. Oops, just kidding, Arnold didn’t take the mat against Penn State!! But when and if he does, I’m going Starocci. Book it! (Sorry, not a fan of spouting off)
#3 Allred owns a HTH win over #4 Arnold, clinching the higher seed. Arnold is not an offensive dynamo, with only three takedowns in his first six conference duals before “exploding” for 13 points against Wrestlestat’s #95 wrestler in the Hawkeye’s final Big Ten dual. Good thing his defense is solid, as he has been in every single bout he has wrestled. Arnold does have HTH wins over my next two seeds.
In what has become the easiest weight class to seed, #5 Jaxon Smith (MD) has a HTH win over #6 Edmund Ruth (ILL). Ruth has a HTH win over #7 Shane Cartegena-Walsh (RUT). Cartegena-Walsh has a HTH win over #8 Ryder Rogotzke (tOSU). Rogotzke has a HTH win over #9 Donnell Washington (IND). #10 Jaden Bullock (MICH) finishes my top ten. Looking back at seeds #5 through #10, it doesn’t get any easier than what I found during my 184 review. Each lost to the guys in front of them and beat the guys behind them. Not a single bout caused even a speck of doubt in my seeding. Come on Big Ten, get it right!
Another Carter vs Washington match in the quarters?
I would expect Iowa to enter Kennedy into the coaches rankings for allocation. Brands can still wrestle at big 10s but he wouldn't allocate anyway. So you enter Kennedy just in case he is the guy since he will earn
Theoretically, then, if Jaxon beats Arnold at B1Gs and Gabe goes opposite-bracket from Carter in Philly, the vision quest match never happens?
11-6, 13-8, 22-8, 14-8, and 11-6, Washington's records, in order from his RSFR season to this season. Did injuries or something else hamper his wrestling development? 22-8 is pretty good, only a bit better than average since. TF if it happens, my guess.
165 Pounds
#1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Michael Caliendo (IA, 7-1)
#3 Christopher Minto (NEB, 5-1)
#4 Beau Mantanona (MICH, 6-2)
#5 Andrew Sparks (MINN. 5-3)
#6 Braeden Scoles (ILL, 5-3)
#7 Tyler Lillard (IND, 4-3)
#8 Maxx Mayfield (NU, 3-4)
#9 likely Paddy Gallagher (tOSU)
#10 Anthony White (RUT, 1-4)
The rest: Stoney Buell (PUR, 2-5), Jay Nivison (MSU, 1-7), Alex Uryniak (MD, 1-7), Cale Anderson (WIS, 1-4)
By a landslide, it is #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) at the top of the seeds. He’s king-of-the-hill, and no one else is on that hill. With an 8-0 record in conference, Mesenbrink has 6 technical falls and 2 major decisions to his credit in B1G duals. Mesenbrink won by technical fall over Micheal Caliendo (IA), who is my #2 seed and also #2 ranked in the country. That, my friends, is separation! Caliendo counts among his wins; #3 Christopher Minto (NEB) and #5 Andrew Sparks (MINN). Minto is having a great redshirt freshman season after starting the year behind Bubba Wilson, who was injured in a late-December dual. Minto has HTH wins against #4 Beau Mantanona and #5 Sparks, while losing only to Caliendo as already noted. Mantanona defeated Sparks HTH in the battle for the #4 seed. Sparks only has losses to guys in front of him (Caliendo, Minto, Montanona), but the win column is unimpressive. Doesn’t matter, as the next couple of seeds did not impress in their win columns either, but their losses hurt. Ohio State’s trio of Paddy Gallagher (loss at 157 to Kraisser, 1-1 at 165), e'Than Birden (loss to Andrew Barbosa, RUT back-up), and Brock Herman (0-3, all by bonus) have not set the world on fire and I am not sure who their post-season representative will be. It does appear to be Gallagher, who’s official Big Ten record at 165 is 1-1 (the Kraisser loss again, was at 157), after moving up a weight from 157 in mid-January. Braeden Scoles (ILL) and Tyler Lillard (IND) have winning records, with Scoles losing to Birden, and Lillard losing to Maxx Mayfield (NU). Scoles does have a HTH win against Mayfield, so I am going #6 Scoles, inserting #7 Mayfield, and #8 Lillard. As mentioned, Scoles beat Mayfield HTH, Mayfield beat Lillard HTH and Lillard has no notable wins. Voilà! My next two seeds are #9 (likely) Paddy Gallagher, and #10 Anthony White.
#1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU, 8-0)
#2 Michael Caliendo (IA, 7-1)
#3 Christopher Minto (NEB, 5-1)
#4 Beau Mantanona (MICH, 6-2)
#5 Andrew Sparks (MINN. 5-3)
#6 Braeden Scoles (ILL, 5-3)
#7 Tyler Lillard (IND, 4-3)
#8 Maxx Mayfield (NU, 3-4)
#9 likely Paddy Gallagher (tOSU)
#10 Anthony White (RUT, 1-4)
The rest: Stoney Buell (PUR, 2-5), Jay Nivison (MSU, 1-7), Alex Uryniak (MD, 1-7), Cale Anderson (WIS, 1-4)
By a landslide, it is #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) at the top of the seeds. He’s king-of-the-hill, and no one else is on that hill. With an 8-0 record in conference, Mesenbrink has 6 technical falls and 2 major decisions to his credit in B1G duals. Mesenbrink won by technical fall over Micheal Caliendo (IA), who is my #2 seed and also #2 ranked in the country. That, my friends, is separation! Caliendo counts among his wins; #3 Christopher Minto (NEB) and #5 Andrew Sparks (MINN). Minto is having a great redshirt freshman season after starting the year behind Bubba Wilson, who was injured in a late-December dual. Minto has HTH wins against #4 Beau Mantanona and #5 Sparks, while losing only to Caliendo as already noted. Mantanona defeated Sparks HTH in the battle for the #4 seed. Sparks only has losses to guys in front of him (Caliendo, Minto, Montanona), but the win column is unimpressive. Doesn’t matter, as the next couple of seeds did not impress in their win columns either, but their losses hurt. Ohio State’s trio of Paddy Gallagher (loss at 157 to Kraisser, 1-1 at 165), e'Than Birden (loss to Andrew Barbosa, RUT back-up), and Brock Herman (0-3, all by bonus) have not set the world on fire and I am not sure who their post-season representative will be. It does appear to be Gallagher, who’s official Big Ten record at 165 is 1-1 (the Kraisser loss again, was at 157), after moving up a weight from 157 in mid-January. Braeden Scoles (ILL) and Tyler Lillard (IND) have winning records, with Scoles losing to Birden, and Lillard losing to Maxx Mayfield (NU). Scoles does have a HTH win against Mayfield, so I am going #6 Scoles, inserting #7 Mayfield, and #8 Lillard. As mentioned, Scoles beat Mayfield HTH, Mayfield beat Lillard HTH and Lillard has no notable wins. Voilà! My next two seeds are #9 (likely) Paddy Gallagher, and #10 Anthony White.
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[QUOTE="
By a landslide, it is #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) at the top of the seeds. He’s king-of-the-hill, and no one else is on that hill.
[/QUOTE]
Roar, you outdid yourself with this line, no one else on the hill! Love it
By a landslide, it is #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (PSU) at the top of the seeds. He’s king-of-the-hill, and no one else is on that hill.
[/QUOTE]
Roar, you outdid yourself with this line, no one else on the hill! Love it
The longer you hang around the smarter you seem to be getting. I can tell because you and I agree more often.
100% agree. Bartlett is going to have a helluva match with either wrestler. Both very very good.
My next to last weight class. No longer called "dancing bears", these guys are not our father's heavyweights. 157 next!
285 Pounds
#1 Gable Steveson (MINN, 8-0)
#2 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU, 6-0)
#3 Josh Heindselman (MICH, 6-2)
#4 Nick Feldman (tOSU, 5-3)
#5 Ben Kueter (IA, 5-3)
#6 Yaraslau Slavikouski (RUT, 3-3)
#7 Luke Luffman (ILL, 6-2)
#8 Seth Nevills (MD, 4-4)
#9 Jacob Bullock (IND, 4-3)
#10 Hayden Filipovich (PUR, 3-5)
#11 Harley Andrews (NEB, 2-6)
#12 Max Vanadia (MSU, 4-4)
The rest: Dirk Morley (NU, 1-7), Gannon Rosenfield (WIS, 0-8)
Two undefeated wrestlers sit atop the seeds at 285. #1 Gable Steveson (MINN) is my top guy, but not that far behind is #2 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU). Steveson has not lost a conference bout in five years, though he took a circuitous route to return this season after being absent from college wrestling in 2023 and 2024. Steveson is eight-for-eight in bonus point victories in conference this season; one major decision, five technical falls, and two falls. #2 Kerkvliet has enjoyed success too and is undefeated over the past two years. Kerkvliet wrestled in six conference duals, and while dominant, cannot match Steveson’s record. Kerkvliet did beat my #3, #5 and #6 seeded wrestlers, sending the message that he’s ready for a finals showdown. There is clear separation between the top two seeds and the field.
#3 Josh Heindselman (MICH) gets my nod next, with a solid season that included a win over Nick Feldman (tOSU) and losses only to my top two seeds. Round and round we go next with Feldman beating Luke Luffman (ILL), Luffman beating Ben Kueter (IA), and Kueter beating Feldman. Add Yarislau Slavikouski (RUT) to the mix, having beaten Luffman and losing to Feldman, and we have four guys with similar resumes. I’m going #4 Feldman, with wins over both Luffman and Slavikouski, the only wrestler from this group to have more than one great win. I should mention here that none of these four had a head-scratching loss; they basically were beating up on each other. There are two ways to go next. Give Kueter credit for the Feldman win, given I’ve placed Feldman as my four seed, or give Slavikouski the nod given he’s only lost to guys in front of him. Both have merit, but I’m going #5 Kueter only by the slightest of margins, as he has wrestled a full slate (8 bouts) vs Slavikouski’s 6 bouts. I doubt the Big Ten will agree, but won’t provide any logic. I do, as weak as it may be! That leaves #6 Slavikouski and #7 Luke Luffman, as Slavikouski has a HTH win against the Illini wrestler. A gnat’s eyelash separate #8 Seth Nevills (MD) and #9 Jacob Bullock (IND). Similar results against similar opponents, and even digging deep I found no facts that differentiate the two. For the first and only time in my ten write-ups, I flipped a coin. #10 Hayden Filipovich (PUR) defeated #11 Harley Andrews (NEB) HTH in the final dual of the season, moving up two seeds in the process. Andrews owns a HTH win over #12 Max Vanadia (MSU) to finish this weight class.
EDITORIAL: 285 is a loaded weight class in the Big Ten. Flo, Intermat and the Coaches Ranking all have eight of the top 12 wrestlers in the country calling the Big Ten Conference their home. This is surely the most talented contingent ever for the conference. All eight could be wrestling Friday evening in Philly for the right to be called All-American. Six of the eight are seniors, with only Ben Kueter (IA, FR) and Nick Feldman (tOSU, SO) as underclassmen. There are a few other, lower ranked guys that could (should) make it to the big dance too.
285 Pounds
#1 Gable Steveson (MINN, 8-0)
#2 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU, 6-0)
#3 Josh Heindselman (MICH, 6-2)
#4 Nick Feldman (tOSU, 5-3)
#5 Ben Kueter (IA, 5-3)
#6 Yaraslau Slavikouski (RUT, 3-3)
#7 Luke Luffman (ILL, 6-2)
#8 Seth Nevills (MD, 4-4)
#9 Jacob Bullock (IND, 4-3)
#10 Hayden Filipovich (PUR, 3-5)
#11 Harley Andrews (NEB, 2-6)
#12 Max Vanadia (MSU, 4-4)
The rest: Dirk Morley (NU, 1-7), Gannon Rosenfield (WIS, 0-8)
Two undefeated wrestlers sit atop the seeds at 285. #1 Gable Steveson (MINN) is my top guy, but not that far behind is #2 Greg Kerkvliet (PSU). Steveson has not lost a conference bout in five years, though he took a circuitous route to return this season after being absent from college wrestling in 2023 and 2024. Steveson is eight-for-eight in bonus point victories in conference this season; one major decision, five technical falls, and two falls. #2 Kerkvliet has enjoyed success too and is undefeated over the past two years. Kerkvliet wrestled in six conference duals, and while dominant, cannot match Steveson’s record. Kerkvliet did beat my #3, #5 and #6 seeded wrestlers, sending the message that he’s ready for a finals showdown. There is clear separation between the top two seeds and the field.
#3 Josh Heindselman (MICH) gets my nod next, with a solid season that included a win over Nick Feldman (tOSU) and losses only to my top two seeds. Round and round we go next with Feldman beating Luke Luffman (ILL), Luffman beating Ben Kueter (IA), and Kueter beating Feldman. Add Yarislau Slavikouski (RUT) to the mix, having beaten Luffman and losing to Feldman, and we have four guys with similar resumes. I’m going #4 Feldman, with wins over both Luffman and Slavikouski, the only wrestler from this group to have more than one great win. I should mention here that none of these four had a head-scratching loss; they basically were beating up on each other. There are two ways to go next. Give Kueter credit for the Feldman win, given I’ve placed Feldman as my four seed, or give Slavikouski the nod given he’s only lost to guys in front of him. Both have merit, but I’m going #5 Kueter only by the slightest of margins, as he has wrestled a full slate (8 bouts) vs Slavikouski’s 6 bouts. I doubt the Big Ten will agree, but won’t provide any logic. I do, as weak as it may be! That leaves #6 Slavikouski and #7 Luke Luffman, as Slavikouski has a HTH win against the Illini wrestler. A gnat’s eyelash separate #8 Seth Nevills (MD) and #9 Jacob Bullock (IND). Similar results against similar opponents, and even digging deep I found no facts that differentiate the two. For the first and only time in my ten write-ups, I flipped a coin. #10 Hayden Filipovich (PUR) defeated #11 Harley Andrews (NEB) HTH in the final dual of the season, moving up two seeds in the process. Andrews owns a HTH win over #12 Max Vanadia (MSU) to finish this weight class.
EDITORIAL: 285 is a loaded weight class in the Big Ten. Flo, Intermat and the Coaches Ranking all have eight of the top 12 wrestlers in the country calling the Big Ten Conference their home. This is surely the most talented contingent ever for the conference. All eight could be wrestling Friday evening in Philly for the right to be called All-American. Six of the eight are seniors, with only Ben Kueter (IA, FR) and Nick Feldman (tOSU, SO) as underclassmen. There are a few other, lower ranked guys that could (should) make it to the big dance too.
My last, and longest review. 157 finishes a labor of love for me and it was a doozy. I got a bit verbose with my explanations, so I'll apologize for that. It was worth the extra time and extensive write-up as I tried to put into words all the angles I looked at in doing the seeds.
I do have one more post, and that is a quick look at the team race, AND a look at next season, mostly about departures due to expired eligibility.
157 Pounds
#1 Tyler Kasak (PSU, 5-1)
#2 Antrell Taylor (NEB, 6-1)
#3 Jacori Teemer (IA, 2-1)
#4 Ethen Miller (MD, 7-0)
#5 Joey Blaze (PUR, 5-1)
#6 Tommy Askey (MINN, 6-2)
#7 Trevor Chumbley (NU, 5-1)
#8 Conner Harer (RUT, 4-4)
#9 Jason Kraisser (ILL, 4-4)
#10 Chase Saldate (MICH, 2-3)
#11 Brandon Cannon (tOSU, 2-1)
The rest: Luke Melcher (WIS, 2-6), Braden Stauffenberg (MSU, 1-5), Ryan Garvick (IND, 1-7)
I suspect some of you have been waiting for my 157 seeds and are ready to pounce. This weight class has a lot of talent at the top, but is a mess to seed. The drama includes an undefeated wrestler with a weak resume, and a wrestler that is 2-1 in conference and once-upon-a-time was number one in the country. First the Ethen Miller (MD) story. Miller is “officially” 8-0 in conference action, a noteworthy achievement for any wrestler. One of his “official” wins is an Injury Default victory against Tyler Kasak (PSU) in a bout that was 1-0 Kasak, in essence tied, at the time Kasak left the mat in the second period for concussion protocol and did not return. Kasak was #1 in the country and had his sights on an undefeated conference record after beating Jacori Teemer (IA) the weekend prior and Antrell Taylor (NEB) in mid-January. It is always best to have seeds determined by results on the mat, and it looked like we would have a key bout result when the Kasak vs Miller bout ended, except that it ended before going the distance. We will see how the Big Ten handles the result. My logic in handling this situation is below.
Then there is the Jacori Teemer (IA), where the Hawkeye is 2-1 in conference, having lost to Kasak, but has a good win against Tommy Askey (MINN) to go with a win vs Sammy Sasso (tOSU).
Both situations deserved careful consideration. After doing my homework, I settled on #1 Kasak, #2 Antrell Taylor (NEB), #3 Teemer, and #4 Miller. Let me explain, as it is sure to upset some folks, though there is always method to my madness!! #1 Kasak has, by far, the two best conference wins of any 157 pound wrestler in the Big Ten, against Teemer (when he was #1) and Taylor (who has only this one conference loss). I am discounting the Miller loss for Kasak a little as the bout never finished. I wish it had, it would make these seeds cleaner. In the end Kasak’s resume stands out in conference action, significantly so. The next best wins in conference belong to Taylor and Teemer, both over my #5 Askey, and both settled late in regulation or in Sudden Victory. They are Askey’s only losses on his solid season. I was on the fence for whom, of Taylor and Teemer I would give the higher seed, but the Joey Blaze (PUR) win for Taylor settled it. It is #2 Taylor and #3 Teemer. As far as Teemer and the limited conference action, I didn’t penalize the Hawkeye too much. Lack of action is sometimes a factor, but being prudent is important too. Teemer’s HTH win against 6-2 Askey is evidence enough that he belongs near the top, though I’ll admit that if this bout didn’t happen there would have been no choice but to move the Hawkeye down the seeds. The “prudent” mention above is reference to the fact that penalizing Teemer solely for his lack of action, ignoring the Askey, and moving his seed lower, would impact higher seeds that would see him earlier in the tournament. I wanted to avoid that.
At #4, Miller has had a great season, no doubt. In fact he is undefeated in ALL collegiate action this year, which is noteworthy. I’m not sure, in 15 years of doing my seeding review, that I’ve ever had an undefeated guy that’s wrestled at least seven conference duals seeded this low. His problem is; Harer, Estrada, Kraisser, Mechler, Stauffenberg, and Saldate. Not a who’s who of high seeds in the Big Ten, none having a winning record in conference, and their combined record in conference is 15-25. None will be seeded higher than 8th when I’m done this weight class, and the top three guys have resumes better than Miller’s imo. True also that Miller beat Blaze HTH at the Tiger Style Invite early in the season, but Blaze has a similar resume. Only Sasso on the list of wins for Blaze jumps out at me as familiar, as his other wins are; Kraisser, Garvick, Bostelman and Schork. As much as it gives me goosebumps to see Sammy Sasso on the mat, he is not the same wrestler as before the horrific shooting he suffered through (It was recently announced that he will not be the Buckeyes starter for the post-season). Not Miller’s fault certainly as a wrestler can only take on the guy in front of them. But facts are facts, and a single win from among the top guys in conference action would have gone a long way to a higher seed. #5 Joey Blaze (PUR) has also had a fine season record-wise, but is without a single noteworthy win AND the already-noted loss HTH to Miller early in the season. Maybe that is why Miller didn’t wrestle Blaze at the Purdue-Maryland Dual late in the season! #6 Askey slots next, ahead of #7 Trevor Chumbley (NU), whom he beat HTH.
The remaining several wrestlers did not stand out to me, so again my dive was deeper. Chase Saldate (MICH), who gave Levi Haines all he could handle last season while wrestling for Michigan State, is 2-3 and without a notable win. Conner Harer (RUT) and Jason Kraisser (ILL) both wrestled in all of their Big Ten duals, and were 4-4. I found my nugget in #8 Harer’s win column, beating #9 Kraisser HTH. Next I have #10 Saldate, but mark my word, the Big Ten WILL seed him higher (just my spidey senses tingling!). He doesn’t deserve anything higher than #9 to my way of thinking. #11 is Brandon Cannon (tOSU) with a 2-1 record, and recently taking over the starting nod from Sammy Sasso. I do think the Buckeye will far exceed his seed and make the NCAA Championships.
I do have one more post, and that is a quick look at the team race, AND a look at next season, mostly about departures due to expired eligibility.
157 Pounds
#1 Tyler Kasak (PSU, 5-1)
#2 Antrell Taylor (NEB, 6-1)
#3 Jacori Teemer (IA, 2-1)
#4 Ethen Miller (MD, 7-0)
#5 Joey Blaze (PUR, 5-1)
#6 Tommy Askey (MINN, 6-2)
#7 Trevor Chumbley (NU, 5-1)
#8 Conner Harer (RUT, 4-4)
#9 Jason Kraisser (ILL, 4-4)
#10 Chase Saldate (MICH, 2-3)
#11 Brandon Cannon (tOSU, 2-1)
The rest: Luke Melcher (WIS, 2-6), Braden Stauffenberg (MSU, 1-5), Ryan Garvick (IND, 1-7)
I suspect some of you have been waiting for my 157 seeds and are ready to pounce. This weight class has a lot of talent at the top, but is a mess to seed. The drama includes an undefeated wrestler with a weak resume, and a wrestler that is 2-1 in conference and once-upon-a-time was number one in the country. First the Ethen Miller (MD) story. Miller is “officially” 8-0 in conference action, a noteworthy achievement for any wrestler. One of his “official” wins is an Injury Default victory against Tyler Kasak (PSU) in a bout that was 1-0 Kasak, in essence tied, at the time Kasak left the mat in the second period for concussion protocol and did not return. Kasak was #1 in the country and had his sights on an undefeated conference record after beating Jacori Teemer (IA) the weekend prior and Antrell Taylor (NEB) in mid-January. It is always best to have seeds determined by results on the mat, and it looked like we would have a key bout result when the Kasak vs Miller bout ended, except that it ended before going the distance. We will see how the Big Ten handles the result. My logic in handling this situation is below.
Then there is the Jacori Teemer (IA), where the Hawkeye is 2-1 in conference, having lost to Kasak, but has a good win against Tommy Askey (MINN) to go with a win vs Sammy Sasso (tOSU).
Both situations deserved careful consideration. After doing my homework, I settled on #1 Kasak, #2 Antrell Taylor (NEB), #3 Teemer, and #4 Miller. Let me explain, as it is sure to upset some folks, though there is always method to my madness!! #1 Kasak has, by far, the two best conference wins of any 157 pound wrestler in the Big Ten, against Teemer (when he was #1) and Taylor (who has only this one conference loss). I am discounting the Miller loss for Kasak a little as the bout never finished. I wish it had, it would make these seeds cleaner. In the end Kasak’s resume stands out in conference action, significantly so. The next best wins in conference belong to Taylor and Teemer, both over my #5 Askey, and both settled late in regulation or in Sudden Victory. They are Askey’s only losses on his solid season. I was on the fence for whom, of Taylor and Teemer I would give the higher seed, but the Joey Blaze (PUR) win for Taylor settled it. It is #2 Taylor and #3 Teemer. As far as Teemer and the limited conference action, I didn’t penalize the Hawkeye too much. Lack of action is sometimes a factor, but being prudent is important too. Teemer’s HTH win against 6-2 Askey is evidence enough that he belongs near the top, though I’ll admit that if this bout didn’t happen there would have been no choice but to move the Hawkeye down the seeds. The “prudent” mention above is reference to the fact that penalizing Teemer solely for his lack of action, ignoring the Askey, and moving his seed lower, would impact higher seeds that would see him earlier in the tournament. I wanted to avoid that.
At #4, Miller has had a great season, no doubt. In fact he is undefeated in ALL collegiate action this year, which is noteworthy. I’m not sure, in 15 years of doing my seeding review, that I’ve ever had an undefeated guy that’s wrestled at least seven conference duals seeded this low. His problem is; Harer, Estrada, Kraisser, Mechler, Stauffenberg, and Saldate. Not a who’s who of high seeds in the Big Ten, none having a winning record in conference, and their combined record in conference is 15-25. None will be seeded higher than 8th when I’m done this weight class, and the top three guys have resumes better than Miller’s imo. True also that Miller beat Blaze HTH at the Tiger Style Invite early in the season, but Blaze has a similar resume. Only Sasso on the list of wins for Blaze jumps out at me as familiar, as his other wins are; Kraisser, Garvick, Bostelman and Schork. As much as it gives me goosebumps to see Sammy Sasso on the mat, he is not the same wrestler as before the horrific shooting he suffered through (It was recently announced that he will not be the Buckeyes starter for the post-season). Not Miller’s fault certainly as a wrestler can only take on the guy in front of them. But facts are facts, and a single win from among the top guys in conference action would have gone a long way to a higher seed. #5 Joey Blaze (PUR) has also had a fine season record-wise, but is without a single noteworthy win AND the already-noted loss HTH to Miller early in the season. Maybe that is why Miller didn’t wrestle Blaze at the Purdue-Maryland Dual late in the season! #6 Askey slots next, ahead of #7 Trevor Chumbley (NU), whom he beat HTH.
The remaining several wrestlers did not stand out to me, so again my dive was deeper. Chase Saldate (MICH), who gave Levi Haines all he could handle last season while wrestling for Michigan State, is 2-3 and without a notable win. Conner Harer (RUT) and Jason Kraisser (ILL) both wrestled in all of their Big Ten duals, and were 4-4. I found my nugget in #8 Harer’s win column, beating #9 Kraisser HTH. Next I have #10 Saldate, but mark my word, the Big Ten WILL seed him higher (just my spidey senses tingling!). He doesn’t deserve anything higher than #9 to my way of thinking. #11 is Brandon Cannon (tOSU) with a 2-1 record, and recently taking over the starting nod from Sammy Sasso. I do think the Buckeye will far exceed his seed and make the NCAA Championships.
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You have Teemer #2, Taylor #3 in the list and the opposite in the explanation.
Big shout out to @RoarLions1
This is a huge amount of really great work. Thank you for doing this every year.
This is a huge amount of really great work. Thank you for doing this every year.
My work, my seeds. Nothing more, nothing less. I know too much about the seeding process for Big Ten's to give an opinion on what they will be. Pretty sure Mesenbrink will be the #1 seed at 165 though 😀.
Thats clear as mud. What the hell are you talking about? You can't enter one guy at B1Gs then wrestle the other guy at Nationals.
No, Corby means that the coaches need to provide a list of intended postseason starters to the NCAA before conference auto-qualifier counts are allotted. That does not need to be the actual starter, but then ...
A) If Iowa tells NCAA today it's Brands, then B10 loses 1 auto-qualifier spot today (that Kennedy would've met). It might be given to another conference, or it might go directly into the at-large pool, depending on selection math.
B) If Iowa says Kennedy today, but weighs in Brands, then B10 loses that spot at weigh-ins, and it must go to the at-large pool. No real change from (A) from an Iowa or B10 perspective.
C) If Iowa says Brands today but weighs in Kennedy, B10 does not get back the auto-qualifier it would've received if Kennedy were named today.
In theory this would hurt Iowa -- but in reality, Kennedy would likely qualify at B10s and would be a near-lock for an at-large if he somehow didn't. So really, this is juat a dick move that would screw over some other conference 174.
So Iowa should declare Kennedy the starter before the allocation deadline, unless Brands is absolutely going. No big deal if they change their minds at B10 weigh-ins.
Isn't that what happened with Teske and Schriever last year? they put the wrong one in and didn't get the allocation
