Stock market near new record highs

[EdwardoCarrachio]

You remain a broken record.

• Nobody claimed that 3 years of inflation wasn't a problem.
• Nobody claimed that the average person earned $200k and had a net worth of $1,000,000.

The points being made have been pretty simple.

• The economy has been relatively strong as evidenced by GDP growth and the low unemployment rate.
• People with a large investible net worth have come out ahead because their portfolios have grown more than their annual cost of living. Most people with a small investible net worth have suffered because their cost of living has grown more than their portfolio value.

OK, the thread is about the stock market performance. I suggest to not look at your portfolio this morning as currently both the DOW and NASDAQ are down over 900 points in pre-market. As of this morning's pre-market both the NASDAQ and the Russell2k are in the red on an inflation-adjusted basis for the last 3.5 years. That is 2 of the 4 major indices where you would have lost buying power by investing over 3.5 years. The DOW is only about 1000 points drop from joining them in the red, again, for 3.5 years!

I'm not sure that you are grasping how historically bad that is. And if we are headed to a recession, it will get significantly worse from here. Many indicators are flashing recession right now including the Sahm rule that was just achieved and has predicted the last 9 recession with perfect precision. If that comes, it will be the 2nd recession by its technical definition in this 4-year period even though they changed the definition in 2022 to not call it a recession.

Edit, those indices are now down 1000+ points this pre-market. The bottom is dropping out.

Edit2, I just checked a few minutes later and the DOW is now almost 1300 points down in pre-market. It may go red on an inflation-adjusted basis for the last 3.5 years today if this drop continues. Scary times.

 

[bdgan]

OK, the thread is about the stock market performance. I suggest to not look at your portfolio this morning as currently both the DOW and NASDAQ are down over 900 points in pre-market. As of this morning's pre-market both the NASDAQ and the Russell2k are in the red on an inflation-adjusted basis for the last 3.5 years. That is 2 of the 4 major indices where you would have lost buying power by investing over 3.5 years. The DOW is only about 1000 points drop from joining them in the red, again, for 3.5 years!

I'm not sure that you are grasping how historically bad that is. And if we are headed to a recession, it will get significantly worse from here. Many indicators are flashing recession right now including the Sahm rule that was just achieved and has predicted the last 9 recession with perfect precision. If that comes, it will be the 2nd recession by its technical definition in this 4-year period even though they changed the definition in 2022 to not call it a recession.

There have been many stock market crashes over the years. On Black Monday the market dropped 23% in a single day. We've had a couple for 40%-50% declines in recent times. No way would I consider this "HISTORICALLY BAD". The S&P 500 was at 4,200 just 9 months ago. If it drops 140 pts today it will close at 5200.

I've repeatedly warned about the market trading at a high PE of 29. This correction only brings the trailing PE down to 26. You've argued that PEs should be >30 in the "modern era". There's simply no basis for that.

Back to inflation. Government spending has been insane. Congress has been spending money to spiff the economy but that led to inflation (more demand without more productivity/supply). That forced the Fed to raise interest rates to slow the economy. Different arms of the government have been rowing the boat in opposite directions.

The good news for some is that interest on savings have been good. I've had roughly half of my portfolio in money market accounts earnings 5%. The other half will be taking a hit but I'll still be well ahead of where I was last October.

IIRC you've acted like you have a reasonably high net worth that includes investment real estate. If that's true and your investible assets are greater than your annual spending you've likely done quite well. People with minimal investible assets have suffered under inflation unless they got a big wage increase like dock workers, auto workers, nurses, & UPS drivers were able to negotiate.

 

[lazydave841]

they got a big wage increase like dock workers, auto workers, nurses, & UPS drivers were able to negotiate.

I can only speak for the sector I work in, but as a railroad employee I can tell you that the majority of our raises were eat up by insurance costs that doubled while the plans lessened in quality among the inflation. We also went 2 years without a raise because our contract never gets settled without exhausting every step in the process.

Additionally, we didn't accept this contract; Biden signed it into existence to keep us from striking. And we don't even get the traditional means of striking. We have to go through something like 16 steps and give notice of 30 days, which can then be delayed by 60 more days before another 30 day notice is given only for a sitting president to have the pen stroke author to say "this is what you get" and it's over with.

Yet, the news was out here pushing "railroad strike could cause $2b per day losses" as if it was going to happen. Fear porn.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

There have been many stock market crashes over the years. On Black Monday the market dropped 23% in a single day. We've had a couple for 40%-50% declines in recent times. No way would I consider this "HISTORICALLY BAD". The S&P 500 was at 4,200 just 9 months ago. If it drops 140 pts today it will close at 5200.

I've repeatedly warned about the market trading at a high PE of 29. This correction only brings the trailing PE down to 26. You've argued that PEs should be >30 in the "modern era". There's simply no basis for that.

Back to inflation. Government spending has been insane. Congress has been spending money to spiff the economy but that led to inflation (more demand without more productivity/supply). That forced the Fed to raise interest rates to slow the economy. Different arms of the government have been rowing the boat in opposite directions.

The good news for some is that interest on savings have been good. I've had roughly half of my portfolio in money market accounts earnings 5%. The other half will be taking a hit but I'll still be well ahead of where I was last October.

IIRC you've acted like you have a reasonably high net worth that includes investment real estate. If that's true and your investible assets are greater than your annual spending you've likely done quite well. People with minimal investible assets have suffered under inflation unless they got a big wage increase like dock workers, auto workers, nurses, & UPS drivers were able to negotiate.

I would like to check but several brokerage websites are down. Some of the biggest names out there. I'm not pulling my investments. I like to buy when things are down big. But I cannot even get into 4 of my accounts right now because they are "experiencing technical issues".

I have reasonable net worth. I won't consider it high net worth until I hit 8 figures and this past 3.5 years has really slowed us down. There is no way to sugar coat that. And with the cumulative over 20% inflation in just 3.5 years, will 8 figures even be considered high net worth in a couple of years?

Again, the thread was about the stock market performance which has been historically bad on an inflation-adjusted basis for any nearly 4-year long period. You bring up single day losses that were worse and who knows, maybe those are still coming? I have consistently looked longer term and this 4-year period is one of the worst in our history on an inflation-adjusted basis. It has single handedly killed tens of millions of current and future retirements.

 

[bdgan]

I would like to check but several brokerage websites are down. Some of the biggest names out there. I'm not pulling my investments. I like to buy when things are down big. But I cannot even get into 4 of my accounts right now because they are "experiencing technical issues".

I have reasonable net worth. I won't consider it high net worth until I hit 8 figures and this past 3.5 years has really slowed us down. There is no way to sugar coat that. And with the cumulative over 20% inflation in just 3.5 years, will 8 figures even be considered high net worth in a couple of years?

Again, the thread was about the stock market performance which has been historically bad on an inflation-adjusted basis for any nearly 4-year long period. You bring up single day losses that were worse and who knows, maybe those are still coming? I have consistently looked longer term and this 4-year period is one of the worst in our history on an inflation-adjusted basis. It has single handedly killed tens of millions of current and future retirements.

I'm pretty sure that $10,000,000 will still be considered a high net worth in a few years.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

I'm pretty sure that $10,000,000 will still be considered a high net worth in a few years.

I don't know. $1M is no longer. It was not long ago. If you only have $1M in retirement savings and no pension, you are going to struggle keeping your standard of living throughout retirement. Plus, I'm not quite to $10M anyway. This past week alone set me back 6 figures.

And the real point is that we've nearly wasted 3.5 years of compounding that needs to produce near the historical average inflation-adjusted return to stay on pace for a planned retirement. That is incredibly hard to make up. It doesn't just delay your retirement 3.5 years, it is nearly double that due to the high inflation of this 3.5 years being baked into everything that you buy for life.

Everything that you will ever purchase, that your kids will ever purchase, your grandkids, etc. will always be over 20% higher because of this 3.5 year period. That means that $1M in the accounts today buys less than $800k worth of goods and services even if it grows with future inflation. The bottom line is that this past 3.5 years has dropped your standard of living for life by close to that 20% inflation. That is the price we paid for it, that your kids paid for it, your grandkids, etc.

 

[jjw165]

When do you think the Fed will cut interest rates? This week? Next week? Within the month?

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

When do you think the Fed will cut interest rates? This week? Next week? Within the month?

I believe the odds had it for September. But with the recent data all going more negative than anticipated and the trend of negative reports for jobs, unemployment, manufacturing indices, etc., I could see them pulling the trigger early. Investors clearly are spooked from the recent data and the number of different recession indicator alarm bells going off, they may force the FED's hand.

And yet inflation is still running way too high and has for years now. That's incredibly painful. It's known as the most regressive tax that there is for a reason. The less you have, the more it hurts. Plus, you have Iran ready to attack Israel, which could send oil skying and inflation would follow. Could be a similar scenario as the stagflation of the 70s/early 80s but I don't think quite as bad. We'll see.

 

[GregInPitt]

Today is when you make money. Buy on the open at the height of the hysteria.

Too bad so many lack liquidity. And other lack "guts".......

Actually sold some at the open as well, stocks that hadn't gotten as crushed, to buy some that did.....

Just like 2008/9. Lots of $ to be made by repositioning somewhat!

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Today is when you make money. Buy on the open at the height of the hysteria.

Too bad so many lack liquidity. And other lack "guts".......

Actually sold some at the open as well, stocks that hadn't gotten as crushed, to buy some that did.....

Just like 2008/9. Lots of $ to be made by repositioning somewhat!

Traders love the volatility. Long term investors can use the changes in sentiment to reposition and fear to buy. I usually do. Like I said in an earlier post, I had 4 accounts that were "experiencing technical difficulties" this morning. I couldn't access those accounts for the first 2 hours of trading today and missed the best window for today. They often retrace the bounce late in the trading day so I would be cognizant of that if you are planning on just riding the bounce off of the initial panic for just this session.

Plus, it is probable that the freak out is not isolated to this morning. Many indicators are flashing for recession. Not sure that we get there or not, but those indicators still point to a decline in growth.

 

[bdgan]

I don't know. $1M is no longer. It was not long ago. If you only have $1M in retirement savings and no pension, you are going to struggle keeping your standard of living throughout retirement. Plus, I'm not quite to $10M anyway. This past week alone set me back 6 figures.

And the real point is that we've nearly wasted 3.5 years of compounding that needs to produce near the historical average inflation-adjusted return to stay on pace for a planned retirement. That is incredibly hard to make up. It doesn't just delay your retirement 3.5 years, it is nearly double that due to the high inflation of this 3.5 years being baked into everything that you buy for life.

Everything that you will ever purchase, that your kids will ever purchase, your grandkids, etc. will always be over 20% higher because of this 3.5 year period. That means that $1M in the accounts today buys less than $800k worth of goods and services even if it grows with future inflation. The bottom line is that this past 3.5 years has dropped your standard of living for life by close to that 20% inflation. That is the price we paid for it, that your kids paid for it, your grandkids, etc.

If you had $10,000,000 invested in the S&P 500 index on 1/21/21 you would have roughly $13,600,000 today (after the selloff). It's unlikely your living expenses went up that much.

Your 6 figure setback this past week likely comes on the heels of gains that have been many times greater.

The past 3 years of inflation sucks but we got past much greater inflation in the early 80s. I think you'll survive.

 

[bdgan]

Too bad so many lack liquidity. And other lack "guts".......

That's easy to say. The market fell 50% from 2007-2009. I'm sure a lot of people had guts and bought in after the market had declined 25%.

This selloff has only been 8% and the PE ratio is still above historical norms.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

If you had $10,000,000 invested in the S&P 500 index on 1/21/21 you would have roughly $13,600,000 today (after the selloff). It's unlikely your living expenses went up that much.

Your 6 figure setback this past week likely comes on the heels of gains that have been many times greater.

The past 3 years of inflation sucks but we got past much greater inflation in the early 80s. I think you'll survive.

I do not have $10M invested. I don't even have that much yet in net worth including personal assets, let alone investment assets. And someone with $10M, while they may want to achieve at least historical average inflation-adjusted returns to continue to grow their wealth, doesn't absolutely need it. Of course, they still want it. Why are you so focused on only high net worth investors? This is a very small percentage of the population, and they will be fine regardless.

The real pain suffered in the last 3.5 years are in 2 categories.

1) Those with less than 25X their living expenses in retirement assets (or on that glidepath if younger). This is the general rule of what is necessary at retirement to safely draw the amount in retirement annually to cover your same level of expenses. Now we all know that expenses change in retirement. Some go up, some down. Some pay off their homes and spend less. Some have rented or have medical issues, etc. and need to spend more. But 25X your expenses is the rule of thumb.

This group HAS TO MAXIMIZE their investment time horizon. That means that they have to start investing early (or really increase their contribution as a % of income to 20% or more and/or delay their retirements to overcome the slow start). It also means that they have to invest 13% or higher of their income from that young age. And it also means that they have to achieve at least an average of the historical inflation-adjusted rate of return AND THEY CANNOT HAVE A PERIOD OF 3.5 YEARS OF VERY LOW TO NEAR ZERO INFLATION-ADJUSTED RETURNS. They just can't. If it occurs, it means they probably have to increase their contributions as a percentage of salary very considerably or they must delay retirement by 5 or more years or both.

2. Those who are not invested in the stock market or barely invested and also do not have a pension retirement plan. These people are screwed either way as far as retirement. It just is unlikely to happen or be comfortable. But over 20% inflation in 3.5 years is going to absolutely destroy these families even during their working years. It is the most regressive tax that there is.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

OK, so the DOW finished down 1034 points or 2.6% today. NASDAQ was down 576 or 3.43%. S&P was down 160 points or 3.00%. The Russell2k finished down 70 points or 3.33%.

So here is the updated comparison of JAN2021-today against JAN2017-DEC2020 on an annualized inflation-adjusted basis as of today. Keep in mind the historical average return on an annualized inflation-adjusted basis is around 8% to 10% depending on the index. As you can see below, the NASDAQ slipped into negative territory since JAN2021. The DOW is now less than 1500 points from doing the same.

DOW
JAN2021 - TODAY UP 1.34%
JAN2017 - DEC2020 UP 12.03%

NASDAQ
JAN2021 - TODAY DOWN 0.14%
JAN2017 - DEC2020 UP 32.53% (largest in history for any 4-year period)

S&P
JAN2021 - TODAY UP 4.26%
JAN2017 - DEC2020 UP 14.78%

Russell2k
JAN2021 - TODAY DOWN 7.49%
JAN2017 - DEC2020 UP 13.22%

Calculations below:

Since JAN21 cumulative inflation is 20.1%. (314.175-261.582)/261.582. 7 more months to report this year so it will likely finish about 22% or so for the 4-year period.

The DOW is up 1.34% on an annualized inflation-adjusted basis since JAN2021.
24.8% gain since JAN21 (38703-30997)/30997. That is up 4.7% in those 3.5 years on an inflation-adjusted basis. (24.8%-20.1%) If you annualize this, it is up 1.34% annualized.

The NASDAQ is DOWN 0.14% on an annualized inflation-adjusted basis since JAN2021.
19.6% gain since JAN21 (16200-13543)/13543. That is DOWN 0.5% in those 3.5 years on an inflation-adjusted basis. (19.6%-20.1%) If you annualize this, it is DOWN 0.14% annualized.

The S&P is up 4.26% on an annualized inflation-adjusted basis since JAN2021.
35.0% gain since JAN21 (5186-3841)/3841. That is up 14.9% in those 3.5 years on an inflation-adjusted basis. (35.0%-20.1%) If you annualize this, it is up 4.26% annualized.

The Russell2k is DOWN 7.49% on an annualized inflation-adjusted basis since JAN2021.
6.1% LOSS since JAN21 (2037-2169)/2169. That is DOWN 26.2% in those 3.5 years on an inflation-adjusted basis. (-6.1%-20.1%) If you annualize this, it is DOWN 7.49% annualized.

 

[GregInPitt]

Traders love the volatility. Long term investors can use the changes in sentiment to reposition and fear to buy. I usually do. Like I said in an earlier post, I had 4 accounts that were "experiencing technical difficulties" this morning. I couldn't access those accounts for the first 2 hours of trading today and missed the best window for today. They often retrace the bounce late in the trading day so I would be cognizant of that if you are planning on just riding the bounce off of the initial panic for just this session.

Plus, it is probable that the freak out is not isolated to this morning. Many indicators are flashing for recession. Not sure that we get there or not, but those indicators still point to a decline in growth.

Yep, but it's important to try and distinguish between the types of stocks that will really get hit by a recession and those that were taken down at the open due to today's early freakout. Options are another nice way to go when the VIX is super high like it was this morning. The gold and silver miners got hit hard this morning and may weather whatever is to come better than other areas, especially those that have significant projects coming on line in the next 6-12 months.

Just lots of interesting choices in these days....

 

[GregInPitt]

That's easy to say. The market fell 50% from 2007-2009. I'm sure a lot of people had guts and bought in after the market had declined 25%.

This selloff has only been 8% and the PE ratio is still above historical norms.

Easy to say but so many find it hard to do.

But there is always the other option to sell areas that don't get hit as hard to buy those that did.

Those that bought in at the 25% decline, i.e. those with guts, likely were still buying at the 40-50% decline point as well, if they still had some liquidity or by selling positions that were not down much to buy those that were. There are always outliers. I remember selling some G&I mutual funds in 2009 to buy a NY City high rise REIT that was down over 90% at that time. Those REIT's that had real value recovered quicker than the overall market allowing a sell and rebuy that helps your portfolio recover faster than most...... But obviously you have to stick to quality at that point.

 

[bdgan]

Easy to say but so many find it hard to do.

But there is always the other option to sell areas that don't get hit as hard to buy those that did.

Those that bought in at the 25% decline, i.e. those with guts, likely were still buying at the 40-50% decline point as well, if they still had some liquidity or by selling positions that were not down much to buy those that were. There are always outliers. I remember selling some G&I mutual funds in 2009 to buy a NY City high rise REIT that was down over 90% at that time. Those REIT's that had real value recovered quicker than the overall market allowing a sell and rebuy that helps your portfolio recover faster than most...... But obviously you have to stick to quality at that point.

I don't think many people can predict market tops or bottoms. Who (aside from Buffet) sold in the past month? I sure didn't and I've been predicting a correction due to high PEs. Of course I also said markets can climb a wall of worry for some time.... until they don't.

 

[ryoder1]

Do y

It looks like I missed a meeting of the liberal arts degrees over the weekend. Let’s recap.

• Before the weekend, I posted the EXACT returns of the stock market and the calculations annualized and inflation-adjusted for the periods JAN2017-DEC2020 and JAN2021 until now. I have recalculated and posted those returns below as of this last trading day of 8/1/2024.
• Annualizing the return allows you to compare periods of different lengths under the same terms. Inflation-adjusted tells you how much the investment and return (at various time periods) can actually purchase.
• I merely ask for an honest comparison of the results to include against the historical average annualized inflation-adjusted return of about 7% to 10% depending on which index you are evaluating. Now this is incredibly straightforward if you have any quantitative reasoning skills. This is 100% the correct way to analyze the return of investments. It gives you the same correct analysis for the return on an investment whether your investment was $1M or $1000.
• Several (I can only assume) liberal arts majors instead come up with a hypothetical that involves having $1M in investment basis. This is 5 times the amount of the median retirement savings for the people in the age group with the highest retirement savings (see median retirement savings by age brackets from the Federal Reserve Board below). Keep in mind that according to yahoo finance this hypothetical person with $1M in retirement savings is in the top 10 percent of all Americans. So they are only working through a hypothetical for the top 10%.
• Now they assume $200k of expenses per year for this top 10% wealthy hypothetical person (why $200k?, well, because they just randomly took that number out of their head just like they for no logical reason chose $1M in investment assets) and somehow calculate that with 20.1% cumulative inflation over 3.5 years (I have already shown this calculation) that this top 10%er only increases their expenses by $43k over 3.5 years. But they can’t even calculate that correctly. I’ll even break this down further for them below (they can grab a someone with a STEM degree to explain this if it is too complex for them).
• 2020: $200k expenses (this is the basis for comparison)
• 2021: $200k expenses times 1.07 = $214k ($14k more than $200k)
• 2022: $200k times 1.07*1.065 (that is how you calculate cumulative inflation for multiple years of inflation) = $228k ($28k more for this year than $200k)
• 2023: $200k times 1.07*1.065*1.034 = $236k ($36k over $200k this year)
• 2024: $200k times 1.07*1065*1.034*1.03 = $243k ($43k over $200k this year)
• So to get the total amount of increased expenses since JAN2021 due to cumulative inflation you have to add $14k+$28k+$36k+$43k = $121k of additional expenses since JAN2021, not $43k as they mistakenly claimed.
• It was $43k of additional expenses in only the last year. So unless they intend to dishonestly compare only one year of increased expenses due to inflation to the total amount of growth of their hypothetical top 10%er’s investment over all of the years, they are only off by nearly 200% in their inflation increased expenses.
• Now, as silly as it is to use a hypothetical situation instead of the actual returns of every index which would apply to every investor of that index regardless of how much they invested and how much they spend, they also chose a hypothetical investment amount that only applies to the top 10% of Americans that are invested in the market and then they randomly choose some number that they guess is a reasonable annual expense for that top 10%er AND THEN USE A CALCULATED INCREASE IN EXPENSES DUE TO INFLATION THAT IS WRONG BY NEARLY 200%.
• So please, don’t hurt your heads. Find someone with a degree in STEM and have them explain this to you slowly so that you can understand how absurd your hypothetical is and that it doesn’t even attempt to compare the JAN2017 – DEC2020 period to the JAN2021 – Now period or to the historical average returns.
• All that you are doing is saying that some made up outlier case that you came up with that has a huge calculation error that none of the other liberal arts grads even realized is good enough for you. It’s not compared against the other period nor is it compared against the historical average. It is about the least logical analysis you could devise and I’m trying to be kind.
• So to the point of this made-up outlier hypothetical of a 10%er with some guestimate of expenses. They actually would have not been up as much as you calculated because you were off by almost 200% in the amount of increased expenses due to inflation and 30% gains in a $1M investment would yield a total amount of in the account that can actually purchase LESS goods and services than it did in JAN2021. $1.3M - $121k in increased expenses due to inflation = $1.179M. That would only purchase ($1.791M/1.201) = $982k worth of goods and services (due to 20.1% cumulative inflation reducing the purchasing power of the new account balance by 20.1%).

DOW
JAN2021 - TODAY UP 2.31%
JAN2017 - DEC2020 UP 12.03%

NASDAQ
JAN2021 - TODAY UP 1.09%
JAN2017 - DEC2020 UP 32.53% (largest in history for any 4-year period)

S&P
JAN2021 - TODAY UP 5.46%
JAN2017 - DEC2020 UP 14.78%

Russell2k
JAN2021 - TODAY DOWN 5.83%
JAN2017 - DEC2020 UP 13.22%

Age group​	Median retirement savings balance amount​
Under 35	$18,880.
35-44	$45,000.
45-54	$115,000.
55-64	$185,000.
65-74	$200,000.
75 and older	$130,000.
Source: Federal Reserve Board

[/QUOTE

I would like to check but several brokerage websites are down. Some of the biggest names out there. I'm not pulling my investments. I like to buy when things are down big. But I cannot even get into 4 of my accounts right now because they are "experiencing technical issues".

I have reasonable net worth. I won't consider it high net worth until I hit 8 figures and this past 3.5 years has really slowed us down. There is no way to sugar coat that. And with the cumulative over 20% inflation in just 3.5 years, will 8 figures even be considered high net worth in a couple of years?

Again, the thread was about the stock market performance which has been historically bad on an inflation-adjusted basis for any nearly 4-year long period. You bring up single day losses that were worse and who knows, maybe those are still coming? I have consistently looked longer term and this 4-year period is one of the worst in our history on an inflation-adjusted basis. It has single handedly killed tens of millions of current and future retirements.

OK, the thread is about the stock market performance. I suggest to not look at your portfolio this morning as currently both the DOW and NASDAQ are down over 900 points in pre-market. As of this morning's pre-market both the NASDAQ and the Russell2k are in the red on an inflation-adjusted basis for the last 3.5 years. That is 2 of the 4 major indices where you would have lost buying power by investing over 3.5 years. The DOW is only about 1000 points drop from joining them in the red, again, for 3.5 years!

I'm not sure that you are grasping how historically bad that is. And if we are headed to a recession, it will get significantly worse from here. Many indicators are flashing recession right now including the Sahm rule that was just achieved and has predicted the last 9 recession with perfect precision. If that comes, it will be the 2nd recession by its technical definition in this 4-year period even though they changed the definition in 2022 to not call it a recession.

Edit, those indices are now down 1000+ points this pre-market. The bottom is dropping out.

Edit2, I just checked a few minutes later and the DOW is now almost 1300 points down in pre-market. It may go red on an inflation-adjusted basis for the last 3.5 years today if this drop continues. Scary times.

You better move your portfolio into fixed income and bonds with your chicken little attitude.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Do y

Is that code?

 

[ryoder1]

Is that code?

Yes. Look for my response it is there.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Yes. Look for my response it is there.

Ahh, well-hidden after the quotes and devoid of any intelligent discussion. Are you interested in actually joining the discussion about the market? If interested in just taking one-line personal shots instead then don't waste your time.

 

[ryoder1]

Ahh, well-hidden after the quotes and devoid of any intelligent discussion. Are you interested in actually joining the discussion about the market? If interested in just taking one-line personal shots instead then don't waste your time.

I have joined and at this point we can simply agree to disagree.

 

[NittanyPirate]

The Japanese market rebounded which I guess was to be expected.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

The Japanese market rebounded which I guess was to be expected.

Looks like possibly a little bounce back in US markets, at least premarket is up some.

 

[ryoder1]

S&P up 1.25% so far but that probably won't last. Still it looks like we are headed for a good market day.

 

[jjw165]

Only time will tell if the markets are in a reversal or the increase in investments today are a dead cat bounce.

 

[ryoder1]

Only time will tell if the markets are in a reversal or the increase in investments today are a dead cat bounce.

A lot of clamoring to cut interest rates in Sept. Also read the Fed may do an emergency cut later in the year. Inflation data needs to keep improving.

Goldman Sachs upped their estimate of a recession to one in four, low still but higher than a few weeks ago. The new jobs report was way off estimates, something like 190,000 estimated and it came in at 114,000.

 

[The Spin Meister]

A lot of clamoring to cut interest rates in Sept. Also read the Fed may do an emergency cut later in the year. Inflation data needs to keep improving.

Goldman Sachs upped their estimate of a recession to one in four, low still but higher than a few weeks ago. The new jobs report was way off estimates, something like 190,000 estimated and it came in at 114,000.

And previous month was cut by 50-60,000.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

And previous month was cut by 50-60,000.

Pretty sure that the jobs numbers have been manipulated. The initial numbers make the headlines and then as a footnote they revise downward at a frequency that is not probable. So the question is how bad was this last jobs report?

 

[bdroc]

Pretty sure that the jobs numbers have been manipulated. The initial numbers make the headlines and then as a footnote they revise downward at a frequency that is not probable. So the question is how bad was this last jobs report?

Actual total payroll employment:
Jan 2017 146m
Feb 2020 pre 152m
Jun 2024 158m

 

[GregInPitt]

Pretty sure that the jobs numbers have been manipulated. The initial numbers make the headlines and then as a footnote they revise downward at a frequency that is not probable. So the question is how bad was this last jobs report?

Until government jobs are removed the jobs report will be a joke in reference to the private sector jobs that create wealth and improve the U.S. standard of living.

But obviously there are those that only know how to create government jobs so they will fight to keep the disinformation flowing!!

 

[Obliviax]

Until government jobs are removed the jobs report will be a joke in reference to the private sector jobs that create wealth and improve the U.S. standard of living.

But obviously there are those that only know how to create government jobs so they will fight to keep the disinformation flowing!!

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

There was a small bounce yesterday. Today started like there would be a better bounce but that has faded to very little.

Edit: It is now solidly red. DOW has dropped about 600 points and NASDAQ has dropped about 450 points or 3% over the course of the day. Sad.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

For those still keeping track, we finally got a very strong bounce today. We're still down pretty good for the week. But today was a nice change.

 

[bdgan]

We're still down pretty good for the week. But today was a nice change.

Less than 2%

 

[bdgan]

I think the market is being propelled by government spending and the promise of lower interest rates. That said the market is still trading at 26.5 * earnings and is priced pretty much to perfection.

 

[NittanyPirate]

I want to thank those of you who have made contributions to this thread. On Monday I read the entire 4 pages and while I questioned some of the responses and political motivations behind them, these pages genuinely contain some very informative information.

 

[EdwardoCarrachio]

Less than 2%

Yes, and in the last 3 weeks the DOW is down about 2000 points (5%), S&P down about 6%, NASDAQ almost 11%, and the Russell2k almost 9%. It is a significant pull back and the extension of a worrisome trend. Hopefully today halted that trend. I like when my accounts are going up instead of backwards. We have a lot of lost compounding to catch up on.

 

[bdgan]

Yes, and in the last 3 weeks the DOW is down about 2000 points (5%), S&P down about 6%, NASDAQ almost 11%, and the Russell2k almost 9%. It is a significant pull back and the extension of a worrisome trend. Hopefully today halted that trend. I like when my accounts are going up instead of backwards. We have a lot of lost compounding to catch up on.

I've been around for a long time and I never remember a bull market that only went up.

 

[ryoder1]

Best day this year for S&P up 2.3%. First-time claims for unemployment benefits data was below expectations which helped propel it. This helped ease concerns of impending recession.