I'm not one who thinks Iowa is a heavy favorite to win the team race in 2022 - will they be good - yes, they're bringing back a squad of veterans. However, I think Penn State has a solid team which can win it all. Here is what I think:
125 - Howard is going to be excellent; he'll be a NC one day, but not in 2022. His injury will sideline him and hopefully he fully recovers from his surgery. Steen will be solid; but he's not Howard. At nationals I think a healthy Steen can score as many points as a less than healthy Howard did in 2021, so I don't think we're going to see much of a point drop off here, if any.
133 - RBY will score a point of two more in 2022 given some extra bonus point matches.
141/149 - Doesn't matter who goes in these two weights. Nick Lee will definitely go and than Bartlett/SVN will fill the other weight. We can discuss which wrestler goes where, but since we had no one at 149 in 2021, our point combination in 2022 of 141/149 will be greater than what 141/149 was in 2021 and it could be significant.
157 - Really wanted to see Brady AA last year and we'll miss him in our line-up. I don't think anyone really knows how good Barraclough is, but I think he has excellent potential to be very good. Would have loved to see Boone stay and compete for the start at this weight; I know he's in the transfer portal but haven't seen him land anywhere - could he return? So lots of questions at this weight, doesn't mean we can't be good, just a lots of questions.
165 - We didn't get any points at this weight last nationals, so we can't do worse; I suspect we'll score some whether it's Joe Lee or someone else.
174 - Some additional points due to bonus.
184 - Ditto 174.
197 - Dean/Beard will score more points than 2021. I'm partial to Beard, I like the home grown wrestler, but if Dean is the better wrestler so be it.
HWT - Kirkvliet will score more more points than 2021.
So our chances are tied to the lower weights. Given that we'll have a contender at 149 we should be able to match or exceed our point totals for the 125-157 weights; probably just matching our point totals in 2022 with what was done in 2021 will be enough given the talent in the upper weights. The upper weights (165- HWT) are where we have the potential to do some serious damage. Each weight class has the reasonable potential to score more points in 2022 than in 2021.
Iowa will be favored (Flo probably won't have any of our NC's ranked #1), but I like our chances.