I'll say this. Starocci is absolutely capable of majoring Brands as his result against Hidlay would suggest. But that match is an outlier. Starocci has a career 20% bonus rate against NCAA qualifiers. And that doesn't include multiple non-bonus wins against non-qualifiers, including 1 this year. He has a career 10% bonus rate at the NCAA tournament, where bonus matters most.
On top of this, Nelson Brands has been bonused once his entire career, and that includes 2 years wrestling up a weight class (and a match against Aaron Brooks).
Going off the full body of work for both guys, bonus should be unexpected, but still possible.