I took the day off. Want to welcome Lar at the airport.
Facundo #5 in Flo rankings
- Thread starter zzs006
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If he opens up the entire match Carter is going to major him. I could see him doing it in first period but once he gets down where a major is quite possible I think he goes into defensive mode.
Our minds should join forces to manifest the mutually desired future. 😉
What was his last good win? I can't find anything after the 20-21 season when he wrestled 184. Which begs the question, is he pulling too much weight? Would be be better at 184?
If PSU sweeps 141 thru 165, then Nelson will have little choice other than go for broke. Will it to become so!!!
There are other scenarios that would also put pressure in Nelson to go for broke, like Spencer not pinning Steen, RBY pinning Teske, Woods Dec, and PSU 149+165 DECs.
Sure, Carter hasn't bonused a top whatever, and Nelson hasn't given up bonus. But there is a first time for everything and things thought less possible have certainly occurred. Looking forward to tomorrow night.
There are other scenarios that would also put pressure in Nelson to go for broke, like Spencer not pinning Steen, RBY pinning Teske, Woods Dec, and PSU 149+165 DECs.
Sure, Carter hasn't bonused a top whatever, and Nelson hasn't given up bonus. But there is a first time for everything and things thought less possible have certainly occurred. Looking forward to tomorrow night.
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If Nelson Brands take 4 committed attacks against Starocci he'll get majored.
no he wouldn't. he was a back up last year and got hurt midway through. this year he has good wins over incontrera and gaitan. close losses to fellow fringe AA's ruth and jordan.
I’m almost ready to say if Brands doesn’t have a stall called against him he will get majored. Lol
You and I have a a difference of opinion when it comes to good wins for Nelson but my point is, if his style against "good" wrestlers isn't producing wins then perhaps he should change his style against an elite wrestler like Starocci. Coming out of the match with a gross total of -3 team points isn't going to help his team.
He’s going to be relaxing with a chainsaw
If Nelson wants CS to come to him, I seriously believe his wish will be granted.
Totally agree with you and I've been telling people this same thing this week. It seems many are just assuming Woods wins and Murin also but I see PSU has having great chances in those two matches. And if they win it could be great for PSU.
141 has Conaway vs. Graff written all over it.
I understand everybody likes their guy but who has Bartlett beat that gives him a “great chance” against Woods? His best wins are 4-1 over #13 Lachlan McNeil from North Carolina and 5-3 over #25 Cleveland Belton from Oregon St. He is 14-0 but not all undefeated records are created equal. He hasn’t faced anyone close to Woods ability. Woods has already beat #6 Brock Hardy 6-4 and dismantled #11 Frankie Tal-Shahar 17-2. As an Iowa fan I would be fairly shocked if Bartlett beat Woods. Hopefully I’m not shocked tomorrow night. 😃😃
A different way of looking at it, and why this dual is going to be so much fun for both sides: My personal % confidence in a PSU victory in 10% increments, which granted forces parity.
125 0%
133 100%
141 40%
149 50%
157 80% w/ Levi
165 50%
174 100%
184 100%
197 70%
Hwt 60%
So that's 3:1 in slam dunks, and 2 more highly confident matches, and 1 with no chance.
I like those odds, while 4 matches remain in the 40-60% confidence toss up arena. Of course a split of those 4 guarantees the dual, but anythong less, could with Spencer's Bonus makes this dual far from a guarantee. Those 6 points right off the start equate this to an 11 weight class dual where Iowa wins twice in that first match.
No matter how you slice it, toss out the rest of the matches; Beau, Shane, Alex and Kerk win or lose this thing for us. I wouldn't swap any of them for who Iowa is sending out. Awesome!!!
Beau has the toughest toss up challenge by far, but here he has the 'opportinity' for a coming out party of sorts. Despite being a sophomore, he is a battle hardened veteran and has aquited himself quite well up a weight against the best competition out there. The table is set, he just needs to let it fly.
For the rest of our guys, I would love to see a Pin somewhere. In some sense, I believe a Pin might be an easier task than a major with RBY, Carter, Aaron and Max the most likely candidates to bring down the roof and pretty much seal the deal with a Fall
125 0%
133 100%
141 40%
149 50%
157 80% w/ Levi
165 50%
174 100%
184 100%
197 70%
Hwt 60%
So that's 3:1 in slam dunks, and 2 more highly confident matches, and 1 with no chance.
I like those odds, while 4 matches remain in the 40-60% confidence toss up arena. Of course a split of those 4 guarantees the dual, but anythong less, could with Spencer's Bonus makes this dual far from a guarantee. Those 6 points right off the start equate this to an 11 weight class dual where Iowa wins twice in that first match.
No matter how you slice it, toss out the rest of the matches; Beau, Shane, Alex and Kerk win or lose this thing for us. I wouldn't swap any of them for who Iowa is sending out. Awesome!!!
Beau has the toughest toss up challenge by far, but here he has the 'opportinity' for a coming out party of sorts. Despite being a sophomore, he is a battle hardened veteran and has aquited himself quite well up a weight against the best competition out there. The table is set, he just needs to let it fly.
For the rest of our guys, I would love to see a Pin somewhere. In some sense, I believe a Pin might be an easier task than a major with RBY, Carter, Aaron and Max the most likely candidates to bring down the roof and pretty much seal the deal with a Fall
If Woods loses, it’ll become blowout city. Similar to when McKenna got gassed by Lee in 2019. People thought it might be close, but when Nick won, the floodgates opened. Iowa needs 141 badly. They should get it, but an upset would doom them.
None of that matters, the upcoming match matters. All you can do is speculate at this point, but if there was an undefeated wrestler who was not yet seriously tested, what team's room would you think had him ready for Friday over the others?
Woods is definitely a significant favorite, but Bartlett is a top 5 guy himself, so an upset would not be completely shocking.
Here is how I interpret the optimism . . .
Bartlett:
(1) Was a highly touted recruit
(2) Got a TD against Sasso in a dual meet
(3) Is undefeated at a more natural weight this season, ranked in Top 5
(4) Is athletic
(5) Got a TD against Sasso in a dual meet
Woods:
(1) Appears to have a gas-tank issue
(2) Has not gotten a TD against Sasso in his career
A takedown against Sasso must be very important in determining someone’s skill. 😂😂
Not when Penn State wins the dual because Iowa is satisfied with giving up decisions. Also, if Brands wrestles Starocci the way he wrestled Ruth, he is going to get stalled out. That was the worst match I watched all year.
Very unlikely he gets stalled out. Stall outs only happen when someone constantly backs off the mat or lays on the bottom for almost an entire match. Brands isn’t getting 5 stall calls.
Of course Bartlett has never wrestled anyone as great as Woods. When he’s rolling with guys like RBY, Nick, Zain they’re probably telling him how f@cked he is on Friday night
Based on this premise all your guys should be undefeated since they get to roll with the best ever at each weight, outside 125 of course.
not how it works.
answer this: do you think brands has a better chance of winning if he wrestles defensively and keeps it close late or recklessly attacking?
i swear some of you don't even watch wrestling
Well it may be a reason that those guys seem to develop into champions at a faster clip than those rolling in Iowa City. But you keep being you. I kind of enjoy it!
Brands certainly doesn't wrestle like hid dad or uncle as for watching him I don't have to he wrestles for iowa!!LOL Spencer been trying to teach them I dont know what the problem is!!
Right. Should Bartlett come out firing off reckless shots against Woods? No. He should battle to stay off bottom and try to get the match to the third with a chance to win. But that’s fine because the diabolical Cael has a plan!
No, based on that premise Bartlett might think he can pull off the upset instead of hoping he can lose close for the team.
I really really hope I’m wrong but I think this dual is going to be very tight. 141, 149, 157, 165, 197, and heavyweight are all close to being toss up matches. PSU would be favored in 4 of the 6 I believe but it’s not crazy to see Iowa getting 1 or 2 of them. That being said this is Penn State wrestling who almost always rises to the occasion and they are at home which absolutely matters. If BB wins it could be a blowout where PSU goes on one of their runs where each guy looks to outperform the last. I’m predicting a big PSU win in final score but where the majority of the actual matches aren’t decided until super late or OT. I feel like PSU has proven that in big matches they find a way to win but man is it going to be nerve wracking late in a bunch of these bouts
That's smart wrestling. Not Staaaaaallllliiiing! You're not a very well trained Iowa fan with that kind of thinking.
Give it tim
Give it time. Sooner or later Spencer will see the light and move to central Pa like the other greats.
Faster than anyone rolling in any other room in division 1. Beard, Joe Lee, Verkleeren, Berge, Nevills brothers, Gulibon, Alton brothers, Conaway and Rasheed all got to roll too but no national titles. Is Bartlett better than all of them? Maybe he is but I would want to see him beat someone at least in the top 10 before I thought that. But that’s just me.
Yes, of course. I see Brands and Bartlett having similar game plans in this dual: Hand fight hard, hold defensive position, and keep it close in the 3rd period. There is nothing inherently wrong with that strategy, even if it's not the most exciting style. Plus it gives Jim Gibbons something to effusively comment on.
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