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Penn State - Michigan Dual Thread

I think it will take close to a perfect tournament and maybe some help from Iowa, but I do think you guys to have the fire power to pull the upset.

125) In normal years, I think Howard is scrapping for the bottom half of the podium and would be in pick em matches from R16 on. This year, he could make the finals if he's on the opposite side from Spencer. This weight is total chaos. He could also go 1-2.

133) Should be top 4 and I would probably take him to be 2nd or 3rd. I think he could beat Micic or Fix, but I'm not sure he could beat them back to back. Desanto isn't a gimme either. I'd be shocked if he lost to anybody lower than that.

141) Top 3 and my pick to win. I'd be surprised if he lost to anyone not named Eierman or Rivera unless Demas refinds the magic from 2019.

149) I'm going to guess it's Barraclough/Verk. I don't think Bartlett is big enough and though he's more talented, I think the ceilings are similar due to size. I think they'll be in tight matches, but underdogs from R16 on. Not impossible to sneak onto the podium. Expect a lot of matches like today with Storr.

157) Similar to 149 with more upside. Outside of the top 3, he'll be neck and neck with everybody, but will be in loseable matches from R2 with his style. He could definitely place.

165) Basically identical to 149 except more entertaining because he's wild. Nobody outside of the top 5 he can't go with on his best day, but he could also lose to just about anybody at the tournament

174) I need more data to really feel confident here. Is he a guy who wrestles to the level of competition? If so, it gives him a shot at the finals, but also makes him very upset prone if he makes a mistake. As a freshman with a short season, that's worrisome, but the ceiling is high. Good win today to get back on track.

184) Title favorite. Would be surprised if he finished outside the top 4. Some level of uncertainty having not seen him against the top 3 yet.

197) There are maybe 12-15 guys who could win this weight. It's anarchy. Who knows? I could see him high on the podium or 1-2.

(285) Probably similar to 149. He'll be in tough matches with guys outside of the top 4, but hasn't shown any ability to win those yet.

Because of the composition of some of these weights, even some of your "holes" could score big points at the tournament. There's so much uncertainty this year. As an Iowa fan, I'm certainly scarred by the last 10 years, so I'm very hesitant to count you out.
 
FWIW - I'm not going to name any names, but I know of one PSU parent who you probably don't want to be around when he's watching his son competing. He's a good guy any other time, but he's just super intense when there is competition. We all know of a few coaches who fit the same pattern. The bottom line is that I don't think someone's matside behavior is a good indicator of what they are really like as people. Everyone handles competition differently.

Not everyone can be like Cenzo's mom and not say a peep during the whole thing.
 
I think it will take close to a perfect tournament and maybe some help from Iowa, but I do think you guys to have the fire power to pull the upset.

125) In normal years, I think Howard is scrapping for the bottom half of the podium and would be in pick em matches from R16 on. This year, he could make the finals if he's on the opposite side from Spencer. This weight is total chaos. He could also go 1-2.

133) Should be top 4 and I would probably take him to be 2nd or 3rd. I think he could beat Micic or Fix, but I'm not sure he could beat them back to back. Desanto isn't a gimme either. I'd be shocked if he lost to anybody lower than that.

141) Top 3 and my pick to win. I'd be surprised if he lost to anyone not named Eierman or Rivera unless Demas refinds the magic from 2019.

149) I'm going to guess it's Barraclough/Verk. I don't think Bartlett is big enough and though he's more talented, I think the ceilings are similar due to size. I think they'll be in tight matches, but underdogs from R16 on. Not impossible to sneak onto the podium. Expect a lot of matches like today with Storr.

157) Similar to 149 with more upside. Outside of the top 3, he'll be neck and neck with everybody, but will be in loseable matches from R2 with his style. He could definitely place.

165) Basically identical to 149 except more entertaining because he's wild. Nobody outside of the top 5 he can't go with on his best day, but he could also lose to just about anybody at the tournament

174) I need more data to really feel confident here. Is he a guy who wrestles to the level of competition? If so, it gives him a shot at the finals, but also makes him very upset prone if he makes a mistake. As a freshman with a short season, that's worrisome, but the ceiling is high. Good win today to get back on track.

184) Title favorite. Would be surprised if he finished outside the top 4. Some level of uncertainty having not seen him against the top 3 yet.

197) There are maybe 12-15 guys who could win this weight. It's anarchy. Who knows? I could see him high on the podium or 1-2.

(285) Probably similar to 149. He'll be in tough matches with guys outside of the top 4, but hasn't shown any ability to win those yet.

Because of the composition of some of these weights, even some of your "holes" could score big points at the tournament. There's so much uncertainty this year. As an Iowa fan, I'm certainly scarred by the last 10 years, so I'm very hesitant to count you out.

I appreciate your optimistic look at PSU's lineup with an outsider's eyes, but no one is touching Iowa this year unless it is Covid. The race is for 2nd place.
 
I appreciate your optimistic look at PSU's lineup with an outsider's eyes, but no one is touching Iowa this year unless it is Covid. The race is for 2nd place.
I remember the last time I heard that we kicked ass at nationals. Anything can happen and one things for sure. Iowa will not wrestle to their seeds which opens the door lol. Wishful thinking lol
 
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Given how wacky this season has been, and the last minute rescheduling of this match, perhaps I was being a bit presumptuous expecting majors from RBY, JLee, & Brooks.

Was surprised to see Ragusin at 133. They said he weighed in at 129, so he didn’t blow his 125 chances, and he didn’t wrestle Fri. against Ohio State. Medley actually wrestled @133 for the win and wrestled a bonus match @125 for another win on Friday.

Kudos to Bullock for making Brooks look human.

Beard needs to get stronger and smarter.

Parris is a beast, but Nevills kept scrapping. Honestly, I might have pulled him after he tweaked his knee. Still think Seth can get us some key points in the NCAA. Nice to see some good scrambles from the heavies.

Starocci impressed with his stamina and the the guts to get squirrelly in TB1.

Overall, not great, but a win is a win.

Really wish we could talk MSU into a Tuesday morning match.
 
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Given how wacky this season has been, and the last minute rescheduling of this match, perhaps I was being a bit presumptuous expecting majors from RBY, JLee, & Brooks.

Was surprised to see Ragusin at 133. They said he weighed in at 129, so he didn’t blow his 125 chances, and he didn’t wrestle Fri. against Ohio State. Medley actually wrestled @133 for the win and wrestled a bonus match @125 for another win on Friday.

Kudos to Bullock for making Brooks look human.

Beard needs to get stronger and smarter.

Parris is a beast, but Nevills kept scrapping. Honestly, I might have pulled him after he tweaked his knee. Still think Seth can get us some key points in the NCAA. Nice to see some good scrambles from the heavies.

Starocci impressed with his stamina and the the guts to get squirrelly in TB1.

Overall, not great, but a win is a win.

Really wish we could talk MSU into a Tuesday morning match.

Overall not great? You do realize that scUM was ranked as the #2 team in the Country coming into match, yes? SMH on this one....
 
I think it will take close to a perfect tournament and maybe some help from Iowa, but I do think you guys to have the fire power to pull the upset.

125) In normal years, I think Howard is scrapping for the bottom half of the podium and would be in pick em matches from R16 on. This year, he could make the finals if he's on the opposite side from Spencer. This weight is total chaos. He could also go 1-2.

133) Should be top 4 and I would probably take him to be 2nd or 3rd. I think he could beat Micic or Fix, but I'm not sure he could beat them back to back. Desanto isn't a gimme either. I'd be shocked if he lost to anybody lower than that.

141) Top 3 and my pick to win. I'd be surprised if he lost to anyone not named Eierman or Rivera unless Demas refinds the magic from 2019.

149) I'm going to guess it's Barraclough/Verk. I don't think Bartlett is big enough and though he's more talented, I think the ceilings are similar due to size. I think they'll be in tight matches, but underdogs from R16 on. Not impossible to sneak onto the podium. Expect a lot of matches like today with Storr.

157) Similar to 149 with more upside. Outside of the top 3, he'll be neck and neck with everybody, but will be in loseable matches from R2 with his style. He could definitely place.

165) Basically identical to 149 except more entertaining because he's wild. Nobody outside of the top 5 he can't go with on his best day, but he could also lose to just about anybody at the tournament

174) I need more data to really feel confident here. Is he a guy who wrestles to the level of competition? If so, it gives him a shot at the finals, but also makes him very upset prone if he makes a mistake. As a freshman with a short season, that's worrisome, but the ceiling is high. Good win today to get back on track.

184) Title favorite. Would be surprised if he finished outside the top 4. Some level of uncertainty having not seen him against the top 3 yet.

197) There are maybe 12-15 guys who could win this weight. It's anarchy. Who knows? I could see him high on the podium or 1-2.

(285) Probably similar to 149. He'll be in tough matches with guys outside of the top 4, but hasn't shown any ability to win those yet.

Because of the composition of some of these weights, even some of your "holes" could score big points at the tournament. There's so much uncertainty this year. As an Iowa fan, I'm certainly scarred by the last 10 years, so I'm very hesitant to count you out.
165 also is looking like an almost-anything-goes weight. The problem there isn't just the head-to-head, it's also who survives multiple rounds at nationals. Marinelli, Griffith, and Wittlake probably do. After that, ??

Would've said Lewis, but the Wentzel loss showed some vulnerability ... and then there's the injury.

Anthony Valencia belongs there on talent, but he has the gas tank of a push mower.

After that, a bunch of guys clustered together, where the exact draw at nationals may make the difference between mid-AA vs. missing the podium.
 
Is there anything likeable about the Amine parents?

It's worse that cocaine Shane thinks that every time he jumps out of his chair and shakes his fist, the camera needs to be on them.

Crowd reaction is only camera worthy in #Fakewrestling-the kinds with dudes on 'roids.
 
Overall not great? You do realize that scUM was ranked as the #2 team in the Country coming into match, yes? SMH on this one....

Yes, I know they were ranked #2, but we looked rather flat overall. Given the last minute arrangements, it’s not surprising. It was a good win, but not a great win.
 
The Spyker/Nico joke is now on its 5th year. Which means it's outlived its usefulness by 4.5 years and counting.

And no, this year isn't a free year for that joke.

We need some fresh material -- somebody get Tan Tom on the tweeter, stat.
The nice joke is just hitting is unfortunate stride
 
Seeding is going to be a bit of a cluster-f*** this year. Not many data points for a bunch of wrestlers. No tournaments. Individuals or teams missing due to "that which shall remain unnamed". A bunch of seeds will be settled at the conference tournaments, but still missing a lot from a normal year.
 
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I appreciate your optimistic look at PSU's lineup with an outsider's eyes, but no one is touching Iowa this year unless it is Covid. The race is for 2nd place.
Probably true. One thing to keep in mind is the impact the shut down might have on Iowa. Like I said, you guys probably need some help, but I do think there's a path to victory, however small.
 
Yes, I know they were ranked #2, but we looked rather flat overall. Given the last minute arrangements, it’s not surprising. It was a good win, but not a great win.

I think it was a very good win for this team. We won what I would consider all of the tossup matches except 165. We took a young, relatively raw, but very talented team to Michigan and beat the #2 team in the country. The only negatives to take away from that match are what we already knew going in -- we are young and still a little raw. In 2 years, this mostly intact lineup will bring home a national title. I am looking forward to watching them grow along the way.
 
165 also is looking like an almost-anything-goes weight. The problem there isn't just the head-to-head, it's also who survives multiple rounds at nationals. Marinelli, Griffith, and Wittlake probably do. After that, ??

Would've said Lewis, but the Wentzel loss showed some vulnerability ... and then there's the injury.

Anthony Valencia belongs there on talent, but he has the gas tank of a push mower.

After that, a bunch of guys clustered together, where the exact draw at nationals may make the difference between mid-AA vs. missing the podium.
Sign me up for a Valencia-Lee match. Somebody is going to end up on their back there.

I think you might be able to say this about every weight because we haven't had the full season and inter-conference competition to reveal where everybody actually stands. The data is so limited. For example, I think Murin looks really good at 149 and could maybe have an outside shot at a title as long as he doesn't have to go through Sasso, but who really knows. I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't place either.
 
Given how wacky this season has been, and the last minute rescheduling of this match, perhaps I was being a bit presumptuous expecting majors from RBY, JLee, & Brooks.

Was surprised to see Ragusin at 133. They said he weighed in at 129, so he didn’t blow his 125 chances, and he didn’t wrestle Fri. against Ohio State. Medley actually wrestled @133 for the win and wrestled a bonus match @125 for another win on Friday.

Kudos to Bullock for making Brooks look human.

Beard needs to get stronger and smarter.

Parris is a beast, but Nevills kept scrapping. Honestly, I might have pulled him after he tweaked his knee. Still think Seth can get us some key points in the NCAA. Nice to see some good scrambles from the heavies.

Starocci impressed with his stamina and the the guts to get squirrelly in TB1.

Overall, not great, but a win is a win.

Really wish we could talk MSU into a Tuesday morning match.
I am sure RBY, Lee, and Brooks are more upset than anyone about no bonus,

I am rooting hard, but I think Seth has an uphill climb to qualify for NCAA's. Maybe I am wrong here though.
 
I am sure RBY, Lee, and Brooks are more upset than anyone about no bonus,

I am rooting hard, but I think Seth has an uphill climb to qualify for NCAA's. Maybe I am wrong here though.
He'll probably qualify. B10 will get a lot of HWT spots, plus the B10 HWT is so strong that he might get an at-large with an unimpressive W-L record.
 
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I think it will take close to a perfect tournament and maybe some help from Iowa, but I do think you guys to have the fire power to pull the upset.

125) In normal years, I think Howard is scrapping for the bottom half of the podium and would be in pick em matches from R16 on. This year, he could make the finals if he's on the opposite side from Spencer. This weight is total chaos. He could also go 1-2.

133) Should be top 4 and I would probably take him to be 2nd or 3rd. I think he could beat Micic or Fix, but I'm not sure he could beat them back to back. Desanto isn't a gimme either. I'd be shocked if he lost to anybody lower than that.

141) Top 3 and my pick to win. I'd be surprised if he lost to anyone not named Eierman or Rivera unless Demas refinds the magic from 2019.

149) I'm going to guess it's Barraclough/Verk. I don't think Bartlett is big enough and though he's more talented, I think the ceilings are similar due to size. I think they'll be in tight matches, but underdogs from R16 on. Not impossible to sneak onto the podium. Expect a lot of matches like today with Storr.

157) Similar to 149 with more upside. Outside of the top 3, he'll be neck and neck with everybody, but will be in loseable matches from R2 with his style. He could definitely place.

165) Basically identical to 149 except more entertaining because he's wild. Nobody outside of the top 5 he can't go with on his best day, but he could also lose to just about anybody at the tournament

174) I need more data to really feel confident here. Is he a guy who wrestles to the level of competition? If so, it gives him a shot at the finals, but also makes him very upset prone if he makes a mistake. As a freshman with a short season, that's worrisome, but the ceiling is high. Good win today to get back on track.

184) Title favorite. Would be surprised if he finished outside the top 4. Some level of uncertainty having not seen him against the top 3 yet.

197) There are maybe 12-15 guys who could win this weight. It's anarchy. Who knows? I could see him high on the podium or 1-2.

(285) Probably similar to 149. He'll be in tough matches with guys outside of the top 4, but hasn't shown any ability to win those yet.

Because of the composition of some of these weights, even some of your "holes" could score big points at the tournament. There's so much uncertainty this year. As an Iowa fan, I'm certainly scarred by the last 10 years, so I'm very hesitant to count you out.
Thoughtful analysis with good insights. One tiny nitpick I have is with the statement that Starocci had a “good win today to get back on track.” To my eye, Starocci has been back “on track” since period 2 of his inaugural match as a TRFR 2 weeks ago. He gave up 10 points in the first period of that match then regained his composure and scored 9 unanswered points (at least) to nearly grab the W. His record shows a very promising trajectory:
  1. Loss* -- 10-9 to Indiana’s Donell Washington (#16) (gotta put an asterisk on this loss due to the undisputed missed escape point for Starocci; but also a good reminder to never leave it in the hands of the ref)
  2. Win -- 18-1 TF over Indiana's Robert Deters
  3. Win -- 4-1 TF over Northwestern’s Troy Fisher
  4. Win -- 5-3 over Wisconsin’s Jared Krattiger
  5. Win – 7-1 over Michigan’s Logan Massa (#2)
 
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Seeding is going to be a bit of a cluster-f*** this year. Not many data points for a bunch of wrestlers. No tournaments. Individuals or teams missing due to "that which shall remain unnamed". A bunch of seeds will be settled at the conference tournaments, but still missing a lot from a normal year.
By "a bit" you mean "so massive it can be seen from space," right?

Realistically looking at Fix being the 4 seed at 133 behind (in whatever order) the B10 champ, Phillippi, and McGhee. He just doesn't have the matches or strength of schedule to justify higher.

If Micic wins B10, he might not be the #1 seed. He'd have some measure of SOS (beating DeSanto and RBY back to back), but Phillippi's schedule isn't bad and he has wrestled many more matches.

And that's just a few guys at one weight ...
 
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By "a bit" you mean "so massive it can be seen from space," right?

Realistically looking at Fix being the 4 seed at 133 behind (in whatever order) the B10 champ, Phillippi, and McGhee. He just doesn't have the matches or strength of schedule to justify higher.

If Micic wins B10, he might not be the #1 seed. He'd have some measure of SOS (beating DeSanto and RBY back to back), but Phillippi's schedule isn't bad and he has wrestled many more matches.

And that's just a few guys at one weight ...
I almost guarantee you Fix won't be the 4. They aren't doing RPI this year, so it will most likely be based off coach's rankings. The coaches basically copy the main rankings services and all of them have Fix #1. They already completely scrapped their allocation formula. I think they'll do the same for seeds. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I don't think there's any way he's seeded below Michael McGhee.
 
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Bordeaux never stopped believing in the Erie stud. He was right!
giphy-downsized-large.gif
 
Thoughtful analysis with good insights. One tiny nitpick I have is with the statement that Starocci had a “good win today to get back on track.” To my eye, Starocci has been back “on track” since period 2 of his inaugural match as a TRFR 2 weeks ago. He gave up 10 points in the first period then regained his composure and scored 9 unanswered points (at least) to nearly grab the W. His record shows a very promising trajectory:
  1. Loss* -- 10-9 to Indiana’s Donell Washington (#16) (gotta put an asterisk on this loss due to the undisputed missed escape point for Starocci; but also a good reminder to never leave it in the hands of the ref)
  2. Win -- 18-1 TF over Northwestern’s Troy Fisher
  3. Win -- 5-3 over Wisconsin’s Jared Krattiger
  4. Win – 7-1 over Michigan’s Logan Massa (#2)
I think he has his 5 matches to date: the 18-1 win was in an extra match over a guy (Deters) from Indiana. He had a 4-1 win over Fisher.
 
I almost guarantee you Fix won't be the 4. They aren't doing RPI this year, so it will most likely be based off coach's rankings. The coaches basically copy the main rankings services and all of them have Fix #1. They already completely scrapped their allocation formula. I think they'll do the same for seeds. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I don't think there's any way he's seeded below Michael McGhee.
Good and bad. Fix is probably the best of the group, but he'll still have fewer matches. And while no RPI, also no notable wins. (McGhee also won't have any notable wins, so the only real objective differentiator is # matches.)

Not debating where he might be seeded, just pointing out the dumpster fire nature of this year.

Rhetorical question: if the coaches are merely parroting the ranking services, then why bother with the coaches' ranking?

157 is another good example. Carr is probably the 1 over Hidlay. But what to do with Deakin if he returns and wins B10s?

197 ... get out the blindfold and dart board.
 
By "a bit" you mean "so massive it can be seen from space," right?

Realistically looking at Fix being the 4 seed at 133 behind (in whatever order) the B10 champ, Phillippi, and McGhee. He just doesn't have the matches or strength of schedule to justify higher.

If Micic wins B10, he might not be the #1 seed. He'd have some measure of SOS (beating DeSanto and RBY back to back), but Phillippi's schedule isn't bad and he has wrestled many more matches.

And that's just a few guys at one weight ...

That would be brutal. Would likely pit B1G runner up (5 seed) against Fix in the QF round.
 
The Spyker/Nico joke is now on its 5th year. Which means it's outlived its usefulness by 4.5 years and counting.

And no, this year isn't a free year for that joke.

We need some fresh material -- somebody get Tan Tom on the tweeter, stat.
I tried retiring that joke a year ago, it didnt take.
 
157 is another good example. Carr is probably the 1 over Hidlay. But what to do with Deakin if he returns and wins B10s?
Deakin in action today vs Wiscy. Won first match by TF, now wrestling a bonus match.
  • Ryan Deakin (Northwestern) over Garrett Model (Wisconsin) (TF 21-4 6:15)
 
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Good and bad. Fix is probably the best of the group, but he'll still have fewer matches. And while no RPI, also no notable wins. (McGhee also won't have any notable wins, so the only real objective differentiator is # matches.)

Not debating where he might be seeded, just pointing out the dumpster fire nature of this year.

Rhetorical question: if the coaches are merely parroting the ranking services, then why bother with the coaches' ranking?

157 is another good example. Carr is probably the 1 over Hidlay. But what to do with Deakin if he returns and wins B10s?

197 ... get out the blindfold and dart board.
This has actually been discussed quite a bit the last couple years and several coaches have been vocal about it. They should use the rankings services. There's no reason to let coaches with built in bias and who are already too busy to keep up with all of the results do it. It's a major nuisance for them.

My prediction is that seeds will end up basically mirroring the coaches rankings, so hopefully they don't end up being too disastrous. If not...look out.
 
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Disagree, HS career counts for little at this level (especially CA - it isn't a "power State" in wrestling). Was interested in match to see how much progress Seth had made from last year against top guys.... unfortunately, the answer is he's made no progress since last year and had zero for Parris. Likely means he's still well behind Cassiopi (and miles behind the guy in Minny). He's still way behind the contenders back there with the "Gas Tank Gary" type guys....

I think Morgan and Nick did pretty good coming out of California for Cael.

For Seth, your comment he has "made no progress", "he's still well behind" and "he's still way behind", makes me glad you're a Penn State homer, I'd hate to think what you'd say from the other side.

I'm glad Seth is here and battling. Without him, that team W would be a closer 18 - 15. We need him healthy and scrapping.

I hope you can schedule an appointment with Bonnie Epstein soon.
 
This has actually been discussed quite a bit the last couple years and several coaches have been vocal about it. They should use the rankings services. There's no reason to let coaches with built in bias and who are already too busy to keep up with all of the results do it. It's a major nuisance for them.

My prediction is that seeds will end up basically mirroring the coaches rankings, so hopefully they don't end up being too disastrous. If not...look out.
I've been told the rankings are just for banter and fun. Especially told that when the tankers seem to be a little off.

If the coaches and the rankers are both off for different reasons, how can we have fair seedings?
 
This has actually been discussed quite a bit the last couple years and several coaches have been vocal about it. They should use the rankings services. There's no reason to let coaches with built in bias and who are already too busy to keep up with all of the results do it. It's a major nuisance for them.

My prediction is that seeds will end up basically mirroring the coaches rankings, so hopefully they don't end up being too disastrous. If not...look out.
In several other sports, the coaches notoriously delegate their votes to interns. Wouldn't surprise me if it happens in wrestling too.
 
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