Super Early NCAA Seed Predictions
- Thread starter CSauertiegPSU
- Start date
Yep! I can see second place written all over those seedings😁
Friday night could be very busy for the hawks. Just on the outside mats, not the inside.
Much more likely that he is the 8 than the 4. Allred, Nino, Elam, Laird, and Truax are all conference champs that could be seeded ahead of him. Also Sloan and Trumble beat Allred 2x this season and have similiar resumes to Dean.
1. Nino
2. Elam
3. Truax
4. Laird
5. Sloan
6. Trumble
7. Allred
8. Beard
9. Dean
1. Nino
2. Elam
3. Truax
4. Laird
5. Sloan
6. Trumble
7. Allred
8. Beard
9. Dean
Another 9 seed PSU NCAA champion? I can subscribe to that.
Even if you’re wrong, will check back Wednesday evening when the brackets come out?
Seeds are what they are. You cant control other teams schedule or weaknesses of the conference. I'm just glad that none of the guys got injured badly. We seem to have gotten out of the second toughest tournament of year without major injuries.🤞
I'm betting ab does what he did with Romero and just walks back to the middle. I love that shit. Shows the refs what they are missing lol
This step is being done before the coaches panel is closed? Wrestling committee begins selections and seeding Monday, March 6 at 5 p.m. Eastern time.
I assume they will start calculating points for quality wins, common opponents and head to head since these take longer to calculate. Once the coaches panel is closed it’s easy to plug in points for coaches ranking, RPI and Win %
The listed "Subjective" Criteria are;
● Bad Losses
● Outside the top 30 CR and/or 30 RPI
● Conference Champion
● Performance in last five matches
● Number of Injury default or medical forfeits wins/losses
● Best quality win
● Wrestler availability (injured or medically unable to compete)
I saw where someone mentioned the Coaches Ranking. With 14 schools ranking going into the final product, it should approximate the actual body-of-work ranking, so let's call that an objectively-subjective criteria.
Allred, Beard and Laird are relatively easy calls as they get the HTH points in a comparison to Dean. Dean does catch up a little to all three with the current RPI and CR points, but the ones available now are not the last ones published -- so we have to wait. Dean's Win % is better than Allred and Trumble, but Allred has the HTH win and Trumble has the #1 PAC12 finish. Sloan has a similar resume, but with a couple extra wins against common opponents, so for him it's going to come down to CR & RPI. I don't see Dean higher than 7th, and 8th/9th is more likely with a quick look.
Whenever I hear wiggle room, I think of this all time classic Breaking Bad scene:
8/9 is preferable. I don't like Beard as a R16 draw but that's what you get for the season you had. At least there's familiarity there.
I'd much prefer Nino (assuming he's past Beard) over Nino as a QF draw though. They've wrestled before and Max won 6-0 (granted it was at 184 in 2019)
I'd much prefer Nino (assuming he's past Beard) over Nino as a QF draw though. They've wrestled before and Max won 6-0 (granted it was at 184 in 2019)
Nino seems to be a class act. He doesn’t deserve that quarterfinal matchup.
I've looked at bracketology so many times and sometimes I think the easiest path turns into a mine field. Young men just have to be ready to go and I'm sure they will be.
Lots of bow and arrows that stand between r16 and the finals lol. Let's go max
There is but it's very limited. Basically, the formula provides the pre-seeds. Committee can then move any wrestler up/down by max 3 seeds, with affected wrestlers moving up/down 1 spot accordingly.
Meaning that if the pre-seeds are 1 Keckeisen, 2 Hidlay, 3 Brooks; then the committee can move Aaron to 1. Keckeisen and Hidlay would then drop 1 spot, and everyone else would be unchanged. They cannot drop Hidlay from 2 to 6. Etc.
It's not carte blanche to re-draw the entire bracket. Re-seeds are rare. And when the pre-seeds are egregious (Cody Brewer 13th, lol), they can't make it fully correct.
Sorta like this from yesterday's EIWA 165 semi-final? Time was still running, just like Casella during the entire match.
Don’t be shocked if Kerk gets the 3. Hendrickson from Air Force beats him in win %, conference placement and maybe common opponent. Parris is the only common opponent and Kerk lost to him twice so not sure if that gives the 10 points to Hendrickson or not. If it does it will come down to quality wins assuming Kerk stays ahead in CR and RPI
H2H. 12.5 each
CR Kerk 15
Conference placement Hendrickson 10
Common opponents Hendrickson 10
Win% Hendrickson 10
RPI Kerk 10
Before QW are calculated
Hendrickson 42.5
Kerk 37.5
Just ran through QW’s. Hendrickson had 6 and Kerk had 4. Hendrickson should get at least 15 of the 20 points so that would give him the 2 seed.
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I would think 1 Parris, 2 Kerk, 3 Hendrickson, and 4 Cass
That's what I'm hoping for actually because I think Cass actually has a better shot against Mason.
I think it goes 1 Parris, 2 Hendrickson, 3 Kerk, 4 Schultz, 5 Cass.
Schultz has a better win %, higher RPI (right now) and higher placement at conf tourney. Split H2H since they didn’t wrestle. Each have 5 QW. If Schultz stays ahead in RPI I believe he will get the 4 seed.
Depends on who is 6 and 7. Kerk should be able to beat either but match ups matter in March.Kerk 2 vs 3...
Kerk/Hendrickson at 2-3, and Schultz/Cass at 4-5, is the ideal situation.
IMO it's even better than if Kerk had gotten the 1.
Question for you, for QW the document says the points can be split 20-0, 15-5, or 10-10. I assume if the number of QW is the same and the tiering points are the same it’s 10-10? If one has more QW but less tier points is that also 10-10?
Sum of tiered points.
If (hypothetically) beating Cass is 3x better than beating Orndorff, then beating Orndorff 2x shouldn't win the category simply because it's more wins.
Ok, still not sure how they split the points. For example, if wrestler A has 6 quality wins and B has 5 but wrestler B has a higher sum of tiered points, how would score that in the matrix? Each get 10? 15-5 for B because of the higher points? How would someone get a 20-0 advantage? Sorry for all the questions, just trying to calculate correctly. 😃😃
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Its definitely sum of tiered points, but what differential triggers those thresholds is clear as mud.
They don’t want anyone knowing the full formula in case they want to lower someone’s seed. Maybe a Penn St or Iowa guy? Yes, that’s right, I’m starting the conspiracy theory!
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