Super Early NCAA Seed Predictions
- Thread starter CSauertiegPSU
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If Humphreys stays ahead of Haines in the coaches poll and gets at least 5 points for QW then he will be seeded ahead of Levi. RPI and win % cancel each other out. Common opp is equal. H2H is equal. Basically the coaches poll accounting for 15 vs RPI counting 10 would give Humphreys the 5 point advantage. Same with Franek. If he stays higher in the coaches poll and gets at least 5 points for QW he will be ahead of Haines as well. Common opponent cancels out. Haines beat Robb and Franek lost to him but Franek beat Zerban and Haines lost to him. I think it will go 1 O’Connor, 2 Franek, 3 Humphreys, 4 Haines.
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I know matchups matter. But some matchups matter a lot more than others. A 6/7 vs Kerk is on the very low end of the mattering scale.
Davison is the only guy in that range who isn't an automatic win for Kerk, and Kerk aoukd be favored anyway.
Better Davison than getting dragged into a Greco slugfest with Schultz. Delegate that to Cass and Parris.
Yep, there is certainly history available to validate your opinion.
Whoops, no there isn't. Are you gunsie?
No I'm not 'gunzie' but I kinda wish I was because he/she obviously consumes about 5 or 6 of you lol
Ok. So my calculations are correct. Haines would get 15 and Franek and Humphreys would each get 5 since they all have QW. That should put Haines at 4 assuming he doesn’t jump either in the coaches rankings.
I don't think it's that simple. Each wrestler is compared to each other and you receive a point for each that you have more points than. Robb is likely to be a factor. He has the most quality win points and highest RPI in the field. Not to mention a head to head win vs Franek. So even if he drops below him in the Coaches Poll he still picks up that point. I'm not sure how the quality wins work as far as how the 20 points is split. I know it was stated that if the wrestler with less quality win points has just 1 quality win he gets 5 points. To me it just don't make sense I was assuming if a guy had over 75% of the total points of both wrestlers he would get the full 20 points. In Flo's breakdown of seeding criteria, they don't seem to know either. Only thing I learned new reading it is that you can challenge if you are within 3 points. By the current coaches poll Robb would still be the #1 seed followed by #2 Franek, #3 O'Connor, #4 Humphreys and #5 Haines.
The hard part is not knowing the actual RPI and coaches rank as well as how they split the QW points. Also, the coaches rank and RPI along with win % are used to determine the tiering points for QW’s so it’s mostly guesswork. You are correct there. Haines could easily be the 2 seed if he moves ahead of Franek and Humphreys in the coaches poll or gets all 20 QW points. He has 9 QW’s I believe which is far more than Franek and Humphreys. We will find out this evening for sure! Can’t wait for the brackets to come out so everyone can analyze their guys path to the title.
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I used the RPI on Wrestlestat, I have no idea how close it is to the formula that is really used. Quality Win breakdown I have
Robb - 12 and 26.5 tier points
Haines - 11 and 21
Franek - 6 and 15
O'Connor - 6 and 11
Humphreys - 4 and 8.5
Really as long as Haines is opposite side of O'Connor then all of us PSU fans will be happy. Siebrecht is near the top in QWs. Of the remaining wrestlers only Lewan had more. His CF and win % are hurting him though. I'm guessing around 14 seed for him.
If the NCAA Presentation would have the same A, B, and C wrestlers on pages 13 & 15 it would have given an inkling of what point difference would lead to a 20/0 point split. As it is, we're left to guess. I've never gone 20/0 before, always using 15/5 or 10/10 (which is rare).
I've also wondered about tiering a guy that doesn't have an RPI. Make him a tier 6?
If the don’t have an RPI or coaches ranking and their win % is below 55%, then you would put them as tier 6 for 0.5 points. When running the QW tiering, I’m using the highest number to determine the tier. Like if someone has a 80% win % but their ranked 18 in the coaches and 16
in RPI, the 80% would make them worth 4.5 vs 2 for their rankings. I’m with you. The presentation should have specific examples of how they split the QW points and that would make it easier. 😃😃
You've to remember they dont want the fans or anyone having everything. It will always be guess work . Even after the fact we never get all the data
Still wished the NCAA would eliminate the coaches opinions on anything when it comes to seeding. Sorry, but they've proven to be dirtbags with their stupid 1 sec forfeits to get kids the minimum...the stupid last chance tourneys and then the back room deals to try to get kids at large bids. Doing things like proves they will rank kids lower or higher to help their cause a/o hurt someone else's.
Only thing I'd be pissed about is RBY not getting the 1. IMO, Levi should be 2/3 but can see him at 4. AB..he is the best wrestler but doesnt have RPI, so if he ends up 2 or 3 it wont bother me. Kerk is locked at the 2..the rest..who knows
I wouldn’t say Kerk is locked at 2. Based on the formula he is behind Hendrickson and Schultz.
Kerk could end up behind Hendrickson based on the formula, but their is no way that Schultz is seeded ahead of him. The 2/3 necessarily doesn't matter that much.
Schultz has a higher win % and a higher conference finish and has more QW and QW tier points. That’s at least a 30 point advantage. Kerk has RPI and coaches. That’s a 25 point advantage. H2H is a wash. It comes down to common opponents and neither has a victory over an opponent the other lost to so that should be a wash. Gives Schultz a 5 point lead in the formula.
Yup - it would require manipulation to avoid putting Kerk/Parris on the same side. That would require argument that 2 losses to Parris should get leeway to a loss to Nevills/Pitzer
Well, that would be a pretty good argument.
Throwing out formulas and going by eye test I’d go 1.Parris 2. Kerk 3. Cass 4.Hendrickson 5. Shultz.
In hindsight I wonder if that’s reality though. He beat a severely hampered Parris by being uniquely positioned to do so (ie: huge and strong as hell) and then damn near lost to Jordan Wood.
Can’t see anyone else over Cass after the other 4. Schuyler, Slavikouski, Elam and Trephan are ahead of Cass in RPI. Cass easily beats out Schuyler because of head to head. Ran the numbers with Slavikouski. Slav has 7 QW’s to 6 for Cass but Cass beat better competition. Cass has 22 tier points to 18 for Slav. Even if they split 10-10 and common opponent is a wash, Cass has a 5 point lead. Against Elam, same thing. Elam with 7 QW’s but a lot less tier points. Cass beats him. Lastly, Trephan has less QW’s (4) so Cass beats him by at least 15.
... who beat Cass at nationals.
Schultz also beat the 280+ lb Wood by being huge and strong as hell.
If Cass were 6 and Kerk only 4, Cass would weigh 2 to 3 times as much as Kerk. Any younger and crib death would be a risk!
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