I'm honestly looking forward to just a great match. I am well aware the most likely outcome is we lose. We might get run out of CHA all together like they did to Nebraska, Wisconsin this year and more or less did to OSU. (Let's be honest, that's what they are looking to do, they don't want to win a close one even)
Alas, I'll have some fun with it. I break down 2 potential paths to a win (and they're both long shots)
Path 1: Split 5-5 and Nick/Mark find a way to outbonus Spencer
IMPORTANT: For this to work, ONLY Meredith can get bonused and ideally, he can keep it to 5. If any of our other wrestlers who lose give up anything but a decision, it's over.
#1. We are favorites at 2 weights but even heavy favorites can get Carvered. We would need to find bonus at 141 and 174 but it won't be easy to bonus against either wrestler. I think Mark might take a risk losing the match trying to get KemDawg to his back (which has been done before but only twice) He sensed we needed it against Nebraska and went for it (and got it) against Labriola. Nick has never bonused Max and even though he's improved this year, Max noticeably has also.
#2. Ask Iowa and they're favored at every other weight (especially at Carver) But IMO none of the following weights would the Iowa counterpart be an insurmountable favorite: 133/165/184/197/285. (Feels weird to say Cenzo would be an underdog but let's go with that for now since Bull is 2-0 against him) 285, maybe insurmountable in Freestyle but I think Seth can keep it close in Folk. He has to avoid Cass' feet to back neutral offense. To win 3 of those at CHA? Yeah - it's a monster challenge.
Path 2: One of Verk/Pipher pulls some kind of unthinkable upset
1. Verk counters a Lugo TD at end of period 3 with the match tied 1-1. I might have believed in this scenario if I didn't just see Verk get packed Purinton.
2. Young gets cradled by Pipher.
, and there may have been a 76% Iowa lean last week, but . . . maybe Happel is in for Murin?
