NCAA Session 3 Thread
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
All 5 will be favored and we should see some bonus points also. I'm thinking all 5 advance with 2-3 bonus point wins.
Excellent chance to go 5 for 5 in the semifinal round.
Session III recap with quotes from Morgan McIntosh and a lookahead to tonight's Session IV at the link.
LINK: PSU holds lead, advances 5 to semifinals
LINK: PSU holds lead, advances 5 to semifinals
So now that Session 3 is concluded, here's a quick look at the top teams:
PSU - has 5 in semis, and 1 in Con. R4
current points, 68.5
max potential points, 163
Ohio State - has 4 in the semis, and 1 in the Con. R4
current points, 54
max potential points, 133.5
Iowa - has 4 in the semis, and 2 in the Con. R4
current points, 48.5
max potential points, 147.5
Okla. State - has 3 in the semis, and 5 in the Con. R4
current points, 46
max potential points, 188.5
Mizzou - has 3 in the semis, and 3 in the Con. R4
current points, 42.5
max potential points, 146
Nebraska - has 1 in the semis, and 6 in Con. R4
current points, 34.5
max potential points, 166.5
NC State - has 2 in the semis, and 2 in Con. R4
current points, 32.5
max potential points, 101.5
Michigan - has 2 in the semis, and 3 in Con. R4
current points, 32
max potential points, 120.5
Va. Tech - has 1 in the semis, and 6 in Con. R4
current points, 30.5
max potential points, 162.5
Cornell - has 2 in the semis, and 1 in Con. R4
current points, 28.5
max potential points, 78
Illinois - has 2 in the semis, and 2 in Con. R4
current points, 28
max potential points, 97
Oklahoma - has 1 in the semis, and 2 in the Con. R4
current points, 24.5
max potential points, 78.5
Rutgers - has 1 in the semis, and 2 in the Con. R4
current points, 22
max potential points, 76
Lehigh - has 0 in the semis, and 5 in the Con. R4
current points, 19.5
max potential points, 117
Iowa State - has 1 in the semis, and 3 in the Con. R4
current points, 19
max potential points, 92.5
The max potential points is accurate, but also somewhat misleading. It assumes that everyone still alive for that team will win all their remaining matches, and pin each of their opponents.
Should be fun this evening.
PSU - has 5 in semis, and 1 in Con. R4
current points, 68.5
max potential points, 163
Ohio State - has 4 in the semis, and 1 in the Con. R4
current points, 54
max potential points, 133.5
Iowa - has 4 in the semis, and 2 in the Con. R4
current points, 48.5
max potential points, 147.5
Okla. State - has 3 in the semis, and 5 in the Con. R4
current points, 46
max potential points, 188.5
Mizzou - has 3 in the semis, and 3 in the Con. R4
current points, 42.5
max potential points, 146
Nebraska - has 1 in the semis, and 6 in Con. R4
current points, 34.5
max potential points, 166.5
NC State - has 2 in the semis, and 2 in Con. R4
current points, 32.5
max potential points, 101.5
Michigan - has 2 in the semis, and 3 in Con. R4
current points, 32
max potential points, 120.5
Va. Tech - has 1 in the semis, and 6 in Con. R4
current points, 30.5
max potential points, 162.5
Cornell - has 2 in the semis, and 1 in Con. R4
current points, 28.5
max potential points, 78
Illinois - has 2 in the semis, and 2 in Con. R4
current points, 28
max potential points, 97
Oklahoma - has 1 in the semis, and 2 in the Con. R4
current points, 24.5
max potential points, 78.5
Rutgers - has 1 in the semis, and 2 in the Con. R4
current points, 22
max potential points, 76
Lehigh - has 0 in the semis, and 5 in the Con. R4
current points, 19.5
max potential points, 117
Iowa State - has 1 in the semis, and 3 in the Con. R4
current points, 19
max potential points, 92.5
The max potential points is accurate, but also somewhat misleading. It assumes that everyone still alive for that team will win all their remaining matches, and pin each of their opponents.
Should be fun this evening.
yep. Sitting here looking at the top 4 (psu, O$U, Iowa and Okie St)
I have it going 5/5 us, 2/4 OSU (nato/snyder), 2/4 Iowa (Sorenson/clark) & 2/3 Okie St (Heil/Ringer) in the semis
On the backside blood round I have us 1/1 (JC but beckman looks good), 1/1 OSU (Mjo), 2/2 Iowa (Meyer/Brooks) & 3/5 (JoJo, Boyd and Marsden) Ok St
So AAs PSU 6, OSU 5, Iowa 6, ok st 6
Nebby could sneak into the top 4 but I have them 1/1 semis and 3/6 on backside w 4 AA
Our guys in the semis were already given their 6th points and then gain finals points, so the team score should be all about wrapped up if it goes as noted.
It might be a long week getting to me, but Im sitting hear with my head spinning looking at this stuff. We could lose 3 AA seniors only return 4 AA (JG is a former AA) next year but be a stronger team than we were to start this season.
125 <, 133 > (based on win at NLO), 141 >, 149 >, 157 >, 165 = or >, 174 >, 184 >, 197<, HWT > . But thats enough for now, time for a few more snollygooses.
17,900 for attendance is pretty good....capacity is said to be a little over 18k. Im sure a couple hundred folks from the midwest may have a made a wrong turn at a big building or it would have been full.
I would put an = next to 149, 157 and 174. Hard to be much better than those guys have been
Really cheering for Ashnault to help us close this out sooner than later. I fear Okie St is going to get 4 of those 5 thru to the 3rd place matches.
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Stay out of throws and out of odd positions and we're alright. Keep the match clean.
in the Championship bracket, 133, 165, and 197 have followed seed, as the semis will feature 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 matchups. 285 came pretty close, at 1, 2, and 3 made it, but 4 (Marsden) lost to 5 (Coon).
No surprise to me that 184 is a mess, with 1, 7, 13, and 14 making the semis. This weight was hard to figure out al year. 174 has the only unseeded wrestler in the semis (Lelund Weatherspoon). I thought 174 would be closer to seed, but upsets all over the place left 1, 11, 12, and unseeded in the semis.
No surprise to me that 184 is a mess, with 1, 7, 13, and 14 making the semis. This weight was hard to figure out al year. 174 has the only unseeded wrestler in the semis (Lelund Weatherspoon). I thought 174 would be closer to seed, but upsets all over the place left 1, 11, 12, and unseeded in the semis.
It's scary (in a good way for PSU fans, not so good for everyone else) that Zain has 2 more years and Nolf and Nickal have 3. And yes, they can get even better.
I would think its based on them simply a year older and some of the weight clearing out. But yes its splitting hairs...
Yes, he used to have a very powerful "high crotch" as his "go to move" - when he hit it, he did not need to scramble because he got in so deep for the finish, but it seems to have all but disappeared. Why, I don't know.
Yes, but also being consistently "out-scrambled" once his unfinished TD turned into an outright scramble. This has plagued Jimmy all year though at 141 which tells me that Jimmy lacks the "length" to be an effective scrambler at 141 (the issue is not raw strength or power as some have said.....I think he has struggled the most against "length" like Ashnault @41, Jimmy simply has no answer to their ability to consistently out-scramble him - it's almost like they want him to grab a leg because they bury his head reach over for the ankle or "high crotch" position and then it is just a matter of time until they win the scramble). I think Jimmy is much better @33 where he is not at the "length" disadvantage that he consistently found himself in @41.
Because he is wrestling one weight higher than he belongs.
I share the excitement and the optimism, but I suspect the actual odds of winning all 5 are well under 50%.
Don't necessarily agree with your shallow analysis relative to this year. The coaching staff may have felt our strongest overall line-up featured Mega @25, JC @33 and JG @41. To the extent that this was the case, JG was wrestling in the line-up where it worked best in the opinion of the coaching staff. In terms of putting the best line-up on the mat, I have no problem believing that the coaches are better informed on this topic than yourself.
I was pointing out if he finishes his TDS there would have been zero back point opportunities for Gross.
Side note. I like what is going on with SDST.
As far as the scrambles. Head/shoulders up. Keep weight/pressure back on opponents head/shoulders. Simple solution, even is not always easy.
Zain and Jason are generally great at this. Morgan is almost always good at it. Doesn't happen with Bo much, but Bo is so freaking good with his head positioning.
For whatever reason Nico drops his head which is why even with his length his ankles get tied up so frequenrly.
Jimmy will be positioned perfectly in those situations, but he almost always takes the pressure off his opponent's head he then surrenders the high ground and loses the scramble.
Positioning yourself properly to win the scramble is part of successfully finishing TDs.
1. You are not more informed on wrestling than I am. I am in the Penn State wrestling club, have friends involved both in the program, and former wrestlers at Penn State dating back to the late 70's.
2. My opinion on Jimmy is truthful, not shallow. Anyone with two eyes who knows the sport knows Jimmy isn't big enough, YET, to AA at 41.
3. At NO time did I say that it wasn't the RIGHT thing to do with JImmy to have him at 141, in fact it was the BEST move for the team, once again Cael made a great move here, and hopefully Jimmy can bulk up, OR move back down if Cortez can move up next year, OR Moss, who IS improving can do a great job for us. None of that changes the fact that Jimmy isn't big enough or long enough to AA THIS year, which is what I said.
He didn't say the coaches were wrong, Obviously Conoway couldn't jump to 41 so Jimmy by proxy had to go 41. But he still is a very small 41 and if Cortez can do 41 I wouldn't be surpised to see him at 33 again next year.
BINGO. EXACTLY WHAT I SAID.
Also, Cade is making great strides, so he will be in the mix next year also!
Jimmy WAS A WARRIOR out there for us, and got us more points than anyone ever thought he would. Most people didn't even think he would make it to NYC, much less score 3.5 points for us.
He simply was too small to be an all american, as it was, I think he outperformed his ceiling this year, and overcame enough obstacles with confidence so that it springboards him into next year, where in my OPINION he should move down to 133, and stand on the podium next year somewhere in the top 5.
Huh? Mega (a 3-Seed) is wrestling a 15-Seed to advance, J-No (a 3-Seed) is wrestling a 15-Seed to advance, BKW (Bo Knows Wrestling a 1-Seed) is wrestling a 12-Seed to advance, Z-Pain (an unblemished 1-Seed) is wrestling a 5-Seed that he has consistently dominated in the B1G and finally, Smack (an unblemished 1-Seed) is wrestling a 4-Seed that he has consistently dominated in the B1G. How do you figure it is "overly optimistic" that they all advanced? They are ALL in fact heavy favorites to advance. Given that these are all discreet concurrent matches, the "odds" of them advancing is not "multiplicative" across each other - given that they are all heavy favorites in their Semi matches, the odds of them all advancing is in fact quite high.
But I suspect the actual odds of winning all 5 are close to 100%. There, I fixed it for you.
His best TD move, the "HC", has effectively disappeared from his repertoire @41 -- seems like ages since I've witnessed JG hit a beautiful HC "on timing" where the TD is over lighting fast and you just blast through your man (BKW - Bo Knows Wrestling - hit one today, hoisted Jo-Jo off the ground and then put the half in on the way down) . I don't think it is mere coincidence that JG's move to 41 has coincided with the disappearance of the "HC" with power.... Jimmy has been trying to live off of lower leg attacks this year and it has been painful to watch as his "finish ratio" has to be under 10%. Guys like Zane and MacIntosh (and even Mega, J-No and Bo when their opponent is susceptible to it) know how to finish the low leg and ankle attacks, but again, it has just been painfully brutal watching JG try to live off it -- his neutral offense, and scoring in general, has just plain sucked this year.
Well....actually BECAUSE all of the matches are discreet...the odds ARE multiplicative.
But don't let that stop ya'!!
Wrong, you actually said that he "DOESN'T BELONG" at that weight - again, I call bull$hit on your shallow analysis, JG, as well as the rest of the starting line-up, "belong" where the staff puts them! As for your self-proclaimed knowledge of wrestling that puts Cael Sanderson and staff to shame, I couldn't give a $hit what you believe about your own wrestling knowledge - I grew up wrestling with MULTIPLE OLYMPIAN / World Team Members - one of them I wrestled with everyday "in the room" at the first two weight classes 106 and 112!
http://www.flowrestling.org/video/934678-149-lbs-zain-retherford-psu-vs-alec-pantaleo-mich
Instead of arguing amongst ourselves, let's look forward to what's to come... WE ARE!
Instead of arguing amongst ourselves, let's look forward to what's to come... WE ARE!
Well....actually BECAUSE all of the matches are discreet...the odds ARE multiplicative.
But don't let that stop ya'!!
Not Multiplicative - the odds would best be defined by a "multivariate" probabilistic model that is not symmetric (e.g., an asymmetric, multi-path, probabilistic forecast like that used to estimate the random path of an electron, or what much of "string theory" is based upon). "Random Walk" probabilities do not apply where "skill" level makes the outcomes a "skewed distribution", asymmetric and not "normal distribution".
And I wrestled in the PIAA championships at a higher weight. Anytime big boy!
And damn right he "doesn't belong" at that weight. He moved up for the team. You aren't going to claim I am "criticizing the kids" here so give that up.
We did better at both weights than anyone could have imagined. We lost at 141 because he is wrestling up a weight, and we lost at 165 because we didn't quite wrestle our match, and the other kid is damn good too.
I sense hostility during a time of happiness.......
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