I'm curious. If Spencer wins the OTT, where do you judge his chances of winning one of the 3 spots at the world qualifier? 10%?
Pan-Am's
- Thread starter mcpat
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I'm curious. If Spencer wins the OTT, where do you judge his chances of winning one of the 3 spots at the world qualifier? 10%?
Funny, I just decided to blame HoosierLion for not coming here beforehand with the bold and confident victory prediction.So it’s an Iowa guy’s fault?
No, that was your fellow Hawk js8793's original projection for our chances of qualifying 65 kgs at worlds.
I'm just clarifying whether that figure still stands even for Spencer at 57 kgs.
IMO, if our rep is a medal contender, he should have a decent chance of qualifying. I'm thinking at least 50%.
If we can't qualify then we probably were not getting a medal anyway.
Yeah. It’s too bad Spencer was unavailable to wrestle freestyle for the past 6 years, otherwise he could have controlled the situation and qualified the weight himself.
But hey…he was able to lead Iowa to several 2nd place finishes and one watered-down championship…all while foregoing his world and Olympic dreams…so that’s the important thing!
Go the Myles Amine route. Qualify and get hammered by the best guy who pulls you along into repechage where you’ve got a 50/50 chance at bronze.
Sure seems like RBY would be one of the top dogs at 61 in USA and even the world.
I dont imagine he ever wants to make this pull ever again.
I hope he puts it on Lee
Yep, I said it.
hilarious post/profile pic combo right here lol
I'd have to look closer at the field and without seeing him against anybody good yet, it's hard to say, but probably less than 50.
57kg is not 65kg. There's a reason we have one medal at that weight in the past 20ish years. It's absurdly deep.
You guys are taking it too personally because it was a PSU guy who failed. If there was one weight where it was crucial to qualify before last chance, it was 65kg. There's not a single 65kg guy in the US who I would feel confident in qualifying the weight at this point.
I was definitely frustrated, you're right.
However, complete misunderstanding of the situation regarding Last Chance. There will be medal contenders who don't qualify. It was never going to be easier to qualify than it was here, so that's why it stings.
I don't really have a problem with Nick Lee going. He earned it and there was no reason to see his failure coming. I like Nick Lee a lot and my posting history here would show that.
The Richards one sucks and I don't really blame USA wrestling. If I had it my way, the coaches would pick the team for this event based on who they felt most confident in.
For example, Rasheed earned a shot at Kollin Moore in the dual, but Cael liked the match up with Cassar and it was a great decision. Could Richards have won that match? Sure, but I think we all would have felt way more confident in Spencer Lee (or Gilman, Nico, Suriano, etc...). That's how almost every other sport does it, but I get that it's against the ethos of our sport, especially in the US.
This was really a perfect storm. Two returning medalists get beat at Final X the year before. The underdogs then fail to qualify the weight. Both weights have guys eligible for a wrestle off to protect against this situation, but all 3 eligible 57kg guys are too big to make the weight right now and the 65kg guy got hurt in the wrestle off (not saying he would have won anyway).
I thought so too, but it's not true. Both Cael and Cassar have said, Rasheed was dinged up and Cassar didn't know he was going until the very last minute.
You can't have as a standard practice, some coach overruling a wrestleoff or true qualifier. Maybe under special circumstance (I.e. two wrestlers have a history of performance against a known competitor, so you pick the guy who has a history of victory, over the qualified wrestler who has a history of loses)? Maybe.
So are you saying anyone here would have been ok with the team sending out Yianni over Nick, given his international success? Why even have wrestleoffs or qualifiers?
I think we are all pissed, and so is Nick, but he won the spot fair and square, and simply failed to deliver in a pretty spectacular way. Should the team as a whole attend more competitions, and make those results affect who/how we qualify? Yes.
I think Zane is probably our 3rd or 4th best, despite his miracle last year, and Nick just looked Ill-prepared. His conditioning was off, but the biggest let down was mental IMO. Up 10-4, with an Oly qualifying spot on the line, that last minute or so was inexcusable. It was pretty damned clear what Gomez had to do and Nick was caught flat footed several times.
To have two guys lay an egg requires a pause and some reflection. USA is not adequately preparing our guys for what is a must win situation, at a Pan Am qualifier nonetheless! Embarrassing and inexcusable, and it pains me that our own Nick Lee was one of them.
Then again it's wrestling. There are no sure things.
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Sure hope that you mean Zane Richards, and not our own Zain Retherford here. I think Zain is the best in the world at 70kg, and who knows, maybe he can do it at 65 as well now.
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Hopefully Zain can get down to 65 and have energy. He’s the kind of guy we need to win the wars at Last Chance
Pretty sure he meant Richards. Zain is a completely different wrestler than he was a few years ago. He's an animal, he will win the 65kg trials and qualify the weight imo
Wouldn't be shocked if he wins Olympic gold.
Let me know if you think of the source. It definitely wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the decision he makes. Certainly seemed 50/50 in his post-worlds interview with Basch. Zain seems at peace with this cycle being his last regardless.
That said, I think he could win trials at 65 (if he can even make it and function) and think considerably less so at 74…
If you are counting Lee out because of his hiccup last Friday, you are a fool. Nick Lee is still our best rep. It wasnt THAT long ago he teched both Zain and Yianni in consecutive matches.
Zain just isnt the same animal sucked down.
Gimme Lee and Bartlett in OTT finals.
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I'm definitely not counting Nick out! He obviously can win it. Zain has made multiple world teams at 65 though (and medals at 70), so I give his experience the nod--if he can find a way for his body to do it. I like your optimism about our guys--I feel like Alirez is at least a finalist (and tech'd Nick in 30 seconds the last time they wrestled--6 years ago), and Yianni is dangerous.
The biggest issue is USA Wrestling's rush to make the team. There's no reason we shouldn't have a trials bracket AND FINAL X in late may/early june. It's ridiculous. These guys, in general, cut too much weight to be competing like it's an NCAA season.
Alirez might be our future at 65 kgs. He recently won the US Open, beating Bartlett 8-0 in the finals
Audio is pretty spotty on Roman's end, but he says he now plans to wrestle long term--maybe until 2032. Thinking he’ll stay at 57kg.
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i can't imagine zain going 74kg this cycle unless he physically could not make 65kg. he wouldn't even be top 2 in his own wrestling room at 74kg
I'm just going by what the man said. And maybe he can't make 65kg, or doesn't want to go out that way. He's got big plans that don't involve wrestling, so I think regardless, BJC may be our last chance to see him compete on US soil.
I haven't seen one response from js today unless I missed it lol
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