I think matching LSU's offer will not be good enough. They will have to offer a noticeable amount more (200 - 300k?) to even have a chance of getting him.
If overpaying the man by $200-$300k per year is all it would take to get him, then Penn State will get him. That is pocket change in the big scheme of things.
But as others have posted, there are many other factors that may go in to his decision process.