I was mostly kidding by subtly referencing two recent Lemon Pie predictions that turned out perfectly wrong; today's and I think Colaiocco over Brandon Meredith earlier this season (but take my teasing in good humor; LP pays closer attention than I do, and is right more often than wrong).
I do think that Beard probably isn't quite up to Nick Reenan's best day just yet, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Beard win either, I think he'll be close. Beard looks better than he looked at the Clarion open, but he's not really been tested by anyone this season, other than in his loss to Bulsak.