I don't think you can say Kem is a finalist and probably the same can be said for Carter. The reason, Lewis and Hidlay will have a lot to say about that. That is a fantastic top 4.
Ok state v iowa
- Thread starter dunkej01
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125: Even though DH isn’t a bonus point machine, he dominates matches. I think Ayala’s high end is DH’s expected results at nationals. I like Ybarra a ton more than Hawkeye fans like him, but he prob maxes out a half point at nationals (this year), if he even makes it. 125 could be anything from a near wash to a 12 point advantage for Penn State.
133: I expect RBY to be champ and for ADS to take 3rd. With ADS bonus point capabilities, that’s still prob only a 4 point advantage.
141: I expect NLee to be champ and Eierman to be 2nd to 4th. A 6-9 point advantage when you factor in NLee’s propensity to score major decisions.
149: I expect BB to win a couple matches at nationals. That’s 1 - 1.5 points. I think Murin can be a low end AA this year but I expect R12 out of him. 1-2 point advantage Iowa.
157: If Berge goes 157… he prob wrestles Carr in the first round. While Berge can pull a NLee, that’s a tall task. I see Young winning two matches. It’s at least a wash, with the potential for PSU to outpoint Iowa by 7-8 points. That assumes Berge is going 157.
165: this one is interesting. Marinelli could be champ. He’s just as likely to be 6th. I love Edsell, but I don’t see him winning more than 1-2 at nationals at best. Big advantage Iowa; anywhere from 9-22 points.
174: I expect CStar to be champ and Kem to take 2nd. 4 point advantage PSU.
184: This is where we get our points back from 165. Brooks champ with several bonus points. Assad 2-3 wins at best. 22 point advantage PSU.
197: I think Dean makes the finals. I think his floor is 5th. Warner is a place or two below Dean and gets fewer bonus. Advantage Penn State 4 points.
HWT: Either of them can be 2nd - 4th. NCAA seeding will mean everything. Kerk gets more bonus. I’ll call it a wash.
Adding the above together and I have it as a 16-52 point victory for Penn State. 16 if the Bull wins it all this year, Drake matches DH at 125 and Berge can’t wrestle back to be an AA. 52 if Ybarra wrestles 125, the Bull takes 6th and Berge wrestles back to be an AA. (And some other things under both scenarios.)
133: I expect RBY to be champ and for ADS to take 3rd. With ADS bonus point capabilities, that’s still prob only a 4 point advantage.
141: I expect NLee to be champ and Eierman to be 2nd to 4th. A 6-9 point advantage when you factor in NLee’s propensity to score major decisions.
149: I expect BB to win a couple matches at nationals. That’s 1 - 1.5 points. I think Murin can be a low end AA this year but I expect R12 out of him. 1-2 point advantage Iowa.
157: If Berge goes 157… he prob wrestles Carr in the first round. While Berge can pull a NLee, that’s a tall task. I see Young winning two matches. It’s at least a wash, with the potential for PSU to outpoint Iowa by 7-8 points. That assumes Berge is going 157.
165: this one is interesting. Marinelli could be champ. He’s just as likely to be 6th. I love Edsell, but I don’t see him winning more than 1-2 at nationals at best. Big advantage Iowa; anywhere from 9-22 points.
174: I expect CStar to be champ and Kem to take 2nd. 4 point advantage PSU.
184: This is where we get our points back from 165. Brooks champ with several bonus points. Assad 2-3 wins at best. 22 point advantage PSU.
197: I think Dean makes the finals. I think his floor is 5th. Warner is a place or two below Dean and gets fewer bonus. Advantage Penn State 4 points.
HWT: Either of them can be 2nd - 4th. NCAA seeding will mean everything. Kerk gets more bonus. I’ll call it a wash.
Adding the above together and I have it as a 16-52 point victory for Penn State. 16 if the Bull wins it all this year, Drake matches DH at 125 and Berge can’t wrestle back to be an AA. 52 if Ybarra wrestles 125, the Bull takes 6th and Berge wrestles back to be an AA. (And some other things under both scenarios.)
Is an interesting bet - who scores more points at Nationals, Assad or Bartlett. There's also a decent probability they tie at 0.
I disagree (that’s why we are in these forums, right?).
165 and 184 offset themselves.
Advantage Penn State at 197, especially when considering bonus point potential. Advantage Penn State at 157 if Berge goes 157, even considering the 1st round match against Carr. Slight advantage Iowa at 149. It’s a near wash, but advantage PSU in my eyes.
How to Turn Every Internet Discussion Thread into a PSU vs Iowa Thread.
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Advantage PSU at 49??? You must have watched a different match than I did in the PSU-Iowa dual. Don't really see advantage PSU at 57 either even if Brady does end up going there. Young has AA'ed the last 2 years (they awarded in 2020 off rankings) - we have no idea how Brady is going to look at 57. Again, B1Gs will be very telling regarding Ayala and Berge, but as things stand at the moment, I'd say it's a huge stretch to say PSU has a slight advantage at 49 & 57.
I wrote “slight advantage Iowa at 149” and it’s based on team points scored at Nationals, for which I don’t expect many from either of them.
As for Young, he’s taken 5 losses this season (he’s 9-5 against D1 wrestlers.). He’s been majored and pinned by guys I’m not convinced will AA. He’s not wrestling as well this year.
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Certainly not a foregone conclusion, but if I had to pick a final two right now, I’m sticking with Starocci and Kemerer.
There isn’t a ton of depth at 149. Yianni is in a class by himself. Then you have Sasso and Tariq Wilson at 2 and 3. After that it’s Heil from Campbell, Andonian from VA Tech and then Lovett, Gomez, and Millner from App St. Parco is 9th and Murin is 10th. These are coaches rankings. I see a lot of toss ups between 4-10.
Agreed but the 10 seed at nationals beats the 23 seed in the first round, then loses to the 7 seed in the second round. He then wins two matches in wrestle backs before losing in the R12. When you don’t ever win by bonus, that’s 2 team points and slight advantage Iowa at 149.
If you want to give him another win and 8th place, then it’s 5.5 points and still slight advantage Iowa.
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Seeds will have the biggest say, but damn does Hidlay look good, best he’s ever looked IMO.
Find out Sunday vs Lewis
Relax! With Brady at 157 we beat Iowa by 30! Nobody chokes better than Iowa at the Big Dance and our guys are better conditioned with the tougher bonus point mindsets! Do you accept Iowa's challenge? No I reject Iowa's because they are no challenge BUT I will be more than happy to beat up on them some more!At this point in the season.....I would guess the betting line for # of All-Americans would be IOWA at 7...maybe 7.5 tops and Penn State being 6.75......7.5 tops. Final placement and bonus points will decide the championship. These polls that have PSU up by 32 or more points are insane. I really want to believe them so I can just enjoy the finals....but am not seeing many scenarios that have PSU winning by more than 30 points. My blood pressure would love it....but my brain won't let me rationally believe it
Stop hurting me MAX DEAN!!! This is Iowa wrestling summed up in a picture BROKEN!!!
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Leaving this here as I believe Willie is referencing last night.
This current version of Gilman compared to the college version is night and day. And I imagine Thomas doesn't need any additional motivation when he wrestles Cruz considering his loss to Cruz in the 2017 NCAA semis 2017 NCAA semi-final. I am sure that loss still stings, but I am also sure that loss and his loss to Nico in the 2016 NCAA final 2016 NCAA final have helped him become the wrestler he is today.
Anyone else hearing Ayala is not happy at iowa hearing he isn't getting along with brands. Little birdie told me. I'm not saying he's a great source but he is in a position to know from a wrestlers standpoint not a coaches
What kind of shirt was your source wearing?
He can slide right into 133 for us next year. I’ll allow it. 😉
The ultimate response to a coach you’re having issues with. Portal to their rival.
So a friend of mine has three sons all wrestled in high school. The one in college who now doesn't wrestle goes to Iowa yeah I know we rib him all the time. Anyhow he hangs out with wrestlers since he was a wrestler but got career ending injury that's my source could be bulls... Or it could be true was just wondering if anyone else heard anything. I was thinking it was false since mineo wasn't all over it lmfao
This is not based on any sources, but it was interesting for me to hear Brands say “we love him in our program” when asked about Ayala after the PSU meet. That comment to me says something is not quite right.
Can’t imagine Ayala is happy being thrown to psycho Desanto at practice and having his shoulder torn.
Could be the Brands are trying to identify and plug a leak, so they floated a few false story lines. Typical counterintelligence ploy. Have to stop social media personalities from sowing disruption. 😉
Mineo will be all over it now. You're his source.
It seemed weird to me I just asked the question is Ayala hurt. Kid was like no he doesn't like brands matter of factly
If his name isn't Spencer and he wants to win an NCAA title he should seriously consider it.
Do you not think that a coach might act differently during recruiting than day to day in the room?
I don't know I'm not buying it just thought it was a weird response nobody is talking about his injury anymore so there's that.
Right. I mean cmon. You talk to a guy for like 8-10 hours and you don’t know all there is to know about them?
Brands wants to know how much you were paid to say that
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