You have to look at the competition at those weights. IMO Murin is definitely behind Pletcher, Nick Lee, Demas and Red. McKee and Woods would have a slight advantage and then you have Moran and Heil who Murin has already beat this year. Max is ranked #9 on InterMat so he is a fringe AA/R12 type. Probably where he will be seeded, 8 or 9. Lugo is 3 right now behind Lewallen and Sasso. He beat O’Connor and Degen who are 4 and 6. He gets Brayton Lee in a few weeks and Lewallen after that. This weight is very evenly matched so saying Lugo would have to be extremely lucky seems unfair. Young is 5 behind Deakin, Hidlay, Carr and Monday. He lost to Carr and Monday already. Behind him is Dellavecchia, Coleman, Humphreys, Lewan, and Jacques. He’s beat Coleman twice this year. Who of these remaining guys do you see as sure fire to beat him? Warner is 7 behind Moore, Adams, Brucki, Darmstadt, Traxler, and Schultz. He’s 1-1 against Brucki and lost 3-1 to Schultz on a last second takedown. Say he’s seeded 5-7. Below him are Brunner, Aiello, Laird, and Geer. He beat Brunner handily and lost to Aiello in SV. I would rank Lugo, Young, Warner, and then Murin as far as chance to AA and the first 3 have already done it.