Congrats on winning round 1. It's no easy feat to leave Carver with a W. Your guys were up for the challenge, though.
My Hawks were right there in multiple matches, but just couldn't quite finish(again).
Not sure how to explain, but I am both optimistic AND pessimistic about being able to turn those into wins in March. In the end, my homerism wins out because being a pessimist is just the worst!
Great night of wrestling. Really glad that all the matchups(Ayala injury aside) actually happened.
Looking forward to rounds 2 and 3 in March.
Great post, do agree with you regarding the tightness of so many of the individual matchups. The difference in regards to R2 and R3, as you called them, is that it's not just the individual matchups that will matter, but how each team stacks up at the individual weight class -- and indeed I have that same feeling of optimism and trepidation regarding PSU. In the tournament setting it may come down to individual matchups in the semis or finals for PSU and Iowa assuming the team score is that close at near the end of the tournaments; however, Iowa has the more complete tournament team imho (and again, I'm obviously a PSU fan - PSU graduate actually).
I was hoping RBY, Lee and Starocci would show some "separation" at their weights as PSU needs all of them to repeat as Champions (and prevail in these individual matchups if they occur in Semis/Finals) or their chances in the team race are seriously diminished imho. Cass dominating Kirk was another result that caused a bit of trepidation regarding our chances in the team race at B1Gs and Nationals - really didn't see that one coming at all. A super close loss would have been less concerning, but Kerk looked terrible on bottom against Cass - totally dominated - which really changed my view of his chances at Nationals. The way he looked Friday night, I'd say Kerk has a very outside shot at Semis in National Tournament setting, but just don't see him surviving to finals.
Back to how each team stacks up at each weight class....
125 - Both teams AA caliber wrestlers (unlike many, I have no concern with how Hildebrandt looked vs Ybarra - Ybarra was wrestling not to lose and make it to 3rd Period in a scoreless match. Given Hildebrandt's performance against Suriano, I think he will AA), but overall this is a big +++ for PSU relative to last year's B1G and National Tournaments. (at least +15 net points to PSU relative to last year).
133 - RBY has not shown separation. I like his chances to make finals again at Nationals and repeat as Champion, but he is going to have to get past little more than "toss ups" in both Semis and Finals to do it. There is a decent possibility that PSU could lose points at this weight relative to last year.
141 - Again, was hoping to see separation from Nick relative to The Riddler -- but it just wasn't there, if anything, I think Eireman might have made the better adjustments - Nick was just plain fortunate that Eireman lost his grip on Nick's arm on the hip-toss headlock... Eireman doesn't lose the grip on Nick's arm, I think there's a decent shot Eireman sticks him there given the time on the clock. Good news for Nick is that he used the move in regular season match and I don't see Nick allowing this again. The thing I also see in this matchup is that Nick seems content to take Eireman into "deeper water" in a low scoring match by keeping the pressure on, but not getting out of position (i.e., willing to accept stalemates).... and let it be determined in SV as he has the clearly better gas tank. In this way, I think Lee has the much higher probability of repeating relative to RBY and Starocci.
149 - Murin looked like he will AA, Bartlett didn't. Point advantage to Iowa relative to last year imho.
157 - ditto my thoughts from 149. Young looks like a tough out and our guy looked bad in every position (zero offense, couldn't get off bottom and couldn't ride).
165 - Marenelli didn't surprise me - Brady did. Berge was completely overmatched and Marenelli is certainly a top 5 65 over, but no sure-thing to even make it into semis with the emergence of the guy from duhO$U, who looks very, very good. PSU is in trouble at 65 again this year.
174 - Again, was hoping to see separation from Carter relative to Kem.... it just wasn't there. These two remain a toss-up.
184 - Brooks is going to likely repeat, but Assad wrestled like he has an outside-shot at AA.
197 - It played out as I predicted. Warner's lack of a gas tank fatal in 3rd Period (although match shouldn't have been that close as Dean clearly had T2 and backs at end of first).
HWT - Cass looked great, Kerk didn't.
Overall, team race may come down to individual match-ups at 133, 141 and 174.... and PSU may need all of them to prevail given their weakness at 149, 157 and 165 -- especially 57 and 65 (Bartlett has a shot at making some noise if he can make some adjustments and advancements in next 4 weeks.).