Match Thread Iowa dual thread - Jan 31

[HikeNatParks]

Just being honest here, but I don't think the match Friday is going to be as one sided as a lot of people are predicting. You can bet that TnT are still smarting from last year's beatdown in CHA and half of Iowa's starting lineup was on that team too. In addition, all three of Iowa's mercenary starters took bad losses to Penn State guys last year so they also have something to prove. I feel pretty confident that the team score will come out in Penn State's favor, but I think the Hawks are going to put up a good fight.

It would be interesting to see how TnT are preparing this week. Are they foolish enough to think that a couple of days of super intense practices will sharpen their guys for Friday or will they spend their time working on specifics they think are necessary to wrestle better? It's also possible, as some people have suggested, that TnT know their chances of winning are low so they will wrestle backups to protect the seeds of their regular starters. I doubt this will happen, but it's still a possibility. Can't wait until Friday.

Agreed. I don’t expect 29-6. With 3 favored Hawks and several toss-up bouts, 6-4 won’t surprise me either. Mercenaries matter to a team forced to rely on them. Maybe this year’s pleasure comes more from watching home-grown family take out one or two hired guns.
Maybe the margin-of-victory celebration comes in March.

 

[NittanyLion84]

What Are the Biggest Matches in Penn State vs Iowa?

 

[jack66]

I’m not sure where the Buchanan is a different beast narrative comes from. He’s really good, but he’s a vacuum filler after AB left the stage.

This can't be overstated, Brooks and Hidlay moved up and sucked all the oxygen out of 197. Together they totalled 13 matches against this year's top-15; they won all 13 with 10 bonus victories. On their way to the finals, Buchanon and Cardenas were little more than road kill.

Win or lose this Friday, I think Barr will be wrestling Saturday night in Philly.

 

[Kale_yeah]

Agreed. I don’t expect 29-6. With 3 favored Hawks and several toss-up bouts, 6-4 won’t surprise me either. Mercenaries matter to a team forced to rely on them. Maybe this year’s pleasure comes more from watching home-grown family take out one or two hired guns.
Maybe the margin-of-victory celebration comes in March.

6-4 would be extremely disappointing, 9-1 or 8-2 is the standard.

 

[bourbon n blues]

Agreed. I don’t expect 29-6. With 3 favored Hawks and several toss-up bouts, 6-4 won’t surprise me either. Mercenaries matter to a team forced to rely on them. Maybe this year’s pleasure comes more from watching home-grown family take out one or two hired guns.
Maybe the margin-of-victory celebration comes in March.

I see best case scenario for PSU as 10-0, you seldom get best case scenario. the Hawks is 6-4, again you seldom get best case scenario. So which team is more likely to get closer to best case scenario? that would be the much better team, PSU, So I'm guessing 9-1, but maybe 8-2.

 

[Rocky_Smith]

6-4 would be extremely disappointing, 9-1 or 8-2 is the standard.

I see an Over/under of 3.5.

 

[GableBeer]

No. He only has three dates so far - 2 tournaments and the Cy-Hawk. Plus, I asked the same question about Estrada last week in the cesspool, and they said Estrada was unattached at Soldier Salute, so I assume Angelo was, too. That would mean he likely only has 2 attached dates so far.

Angelo was attached, and he has 2 dates left.

 

[wrestleknownothing]

I am surprised by the lack of match by match predictions this year. In years past 10+ people posted specific predictions.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

Just being honest here, but I don't think the match Friday is going to be as one sided as a lot of people are predicting. You can bet that TnT are still smarting from last year's beatdown in CHA and half of Iowa's starting lineup was on that team too. In addition, all three of Iowa's mercenary starters took bad losses to Penn State guys last year so they also have something to prove. I feel pretty confident that the team score will come out in Penn State's favor, but I think the Hawks are going to put up a good fight.

It would be interesting to see how TnT are preparing this week. Are they foolish enough to think that a couple of days of super intense practices will sharpen their guys for Friday or will they spend their time working on specifics they think are necessary to wrestle better? It's also possible, as some people have suggested, that TnT know their chances of winning are low so they will wrestle backups to protect the seeds of their regular starters. I doubt this will happen, but it's still a possibility. Can't wait until Friday.

Just because they have something to prove, doesn't mean they will... The Squawkeyes have had something to prove for several years now, but have only managed to prove that they're not on PSU's level - not even close.

 

[pish69]

I am surprised by the lack of match by match predictions this year. In years past 10+ people posted specific predictions.

LL dec Cruz 9-3 PSU 3-0
Ayala dec BD 4-2 Tie 3-3
BB major Block 10-2 PSU 7-3
SVN dec Parco 7-2 PSU 10-3
Teemer dec TK 4-2 PSU 10-6
MM major Caliendo 16-5 PSU 14-6
LH major Kennedy 10-2 PSU 18-6
CS major Arnold 8-0 PSU 22-6
JB dec Buchanan 7-6 PSU 25-6
GK pin Kueter PSU 31-6

 

[wrestleknownothing]

FYI.

I am running a pick em over on Intermat and right now it is running 24.5 - 8 PSU over Iowa. Someone posted a betting line he found of PSU -20. So it looks like the Wisdom of the Crowds is saying take Iowa and the points.



I do not expect to find general agreement with that view over here.

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

Im just glad Carter is wrestling the full compliment of matches. Some on this board, over the summer, thought he would wrestle a light schedule. Or at least until the Big10s

He is a Warrior and we get to enjoy his journey.

I suspect C-Star will get some time off the first couple weekends in February, when PSU has a dual on Friday followed by a dual on Sunday. Starocci will likely wrestle one dual per weekend.

Might also be the case for Kerk; we'll see.

 

[pish69]

FYI.

I am running a pick em over on Intermat and right now it is running 24.5 - 8 PSU over Iowa. Someone posted a betting line he found of PSU -20. So it looks like the Wisdom of the Crowds is saying take Iowa and the points.

View embedded media

I do not expect to find general agreement with that view over here.

It's a good line..Iowa favored at 3 weights on paper..if you think Iowa wins 3 matches then take Iowa and the points

 

[NittanyChris]

I see an Over/under of 3.5.

You could make a lot of money on the Under.

 

[7brwnpsu]

To be fair, the entire team is wrestling a light schedule.

I totally agree. For this 2024 - 2025 season, many of the guys aren't wrestling much in the 3rd period. Take Mesenbrink for example......

 

[pish69]

I suspect C-Star will get some time off the first couple weekends in February, when PSU has a dual on Friday followed by a dual on Sunday. Starocci will likely wrestle one dual per weekend.

Might also be the case for Kerk; we'll see.

Doubt it on Carter..not sure how far he is from 100 wins, but I know he wants to hit that if possible..saw in interview earlier in year, Carter tried to convince Cael to put him in open tourney. I don't see Kerk missing either..as long as they healthy, they want to take mat..

 

[wrestleknownothing]

It's a good line..Iowa favored at 3 weights on paper..if you think Iowa wins 3 matches then take Iowa and the points

And yet the consensus over there is 2.6 matches to Iowa and 7.4 to PSU.

It is the lack of assumed PSU bonus that is causing the spread estimate to be low rather than the lack of wins.

 

[86PSUPaul]

NashvilleHawkeye also has objective views. Like his posts.

Jrod65 is also a great poster, though he has not been overly active here recently. Nashville had a period of time about a year ago where he went off the deep end a bit, but he has returned to his normal level self.

 

[pish69]

And yet the consensus over there is 2.6 matches to Iowa and 7.4 to PSU.

It is the lack of assumed PSU bonus that is causing the spread estimate to be low rather than the lack of wins.

If Iowa wins only 2 matches, PSU only needs 2 bonus points to break even..Mitchell alone may get 2. I almost went with Luke for the major. I feel Cruz is a guy that's going to come at him and the more action, the better for Luke

 

[WaffleShopper]

I'm stupid but I'll add my predictions just for fun. I see the individual matches a lot closer than most here. I'd love for GK to get bonus but I doubt he's 100% yet.

LL dec Cruz 3-0
Ayala dec Davis 3-3
BB dec Block 6-3
SVN dec Parco 9-3
Teemer dec Kasak 9-6
MM majdec Caliendo 13-6
Levi dec Kennedy 16-6
Carter dec Arnold/AF 19-6
Buchanan dec Barr 19-9
GK dec Kueter 22-9

 

[Still in State College]

Doubt it on Carter..not sure how far he is from 100 wins, but I know he wants to hit that if possible..saw in interview earlier in year, Carter tried to convince Cael to put him in open tourney. I don't see Kerk missing either..as long as they healthy, they want to take mat..

I think he had 78 wins coming into this season. He has 12 so far. 6 dual meets remain plus B1G and NCAA so I think he makes it with some room. Not a lot of room but some.

 

[lisa morales]

Angelo is really good and CStar never shoots. Don't be surprised if Iowa wins 184.

 

[Reslo]

I'm stupid but I'll add my predictions just for fun. I see the individual matches a lot closer than most here. I'd love for GK to get bonus but I doubt he's 100% yet.

LL dec Cruz 3-0
Ayala dec Davis 3-3
BB dec Block 6-3
SVN dec Parco 9-3
Teemer dec Kasak 9-6
MM majdec Caliendo 13-6
Levi dec Kennedy 16-6
Carter dec Arnold/AF 19-6
Buchanan dec Barr 19-9
GK dec Kueter 22-9

This is just about exactly how I see it playing out, as well. But I am also just an online idiot.

Iowa is going to wrestle defensively to mitigate scoring. Keeping matches close and hoping to steal a takedown late in the 3rd to win a few tossups is the path to a respectable final dual score.

 

[Reslo]

Angelo is really good and CStar never shoots. Don't be surprised if Iowa wins 184.

This makes Starocci having 100% bonus this season without shooting once even more impressive!

 

[tullfan68]

Angelo is really good and CStar never shoots. Don't be surprised if Iowa wins 184.

LOL how did Star get all those majors and techs?

 

[matter7172]

Iowa is going to wrestle defensively to mitigate scoring. Keeping matches close and hoping to steal a takedown late in the 3rd to win a few tossups is the path to a respectable final dual score.

Well, we saw how that strategy worked out last Friday.

 

[LOTOlion]

Angelo is really good and CStar never shoots. Don't be surprised if Iowa wins 184.

Btw. You were terrific in Act of Valor.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

This makes Starocci having 100% bonus this season without shooting once even more impressive!

Yea, if only he shot as much as Iowa wrestlers. LMFAO

 

[tullfan68]

Well, we saw how that strategy worked out last Friday.

LOL Brands shuts them down against PSU!

 

[doubleboots]

Angelo is really good and CStar never shoots. Don't be surprised if Iowa wins 184.

@johnstownsteel

 

[7brwnpsu]

Angelo is really good and CStar never shoots. Don't be surprised if Iowa wins 184.

Hell with Cael, when is Nerf going to interview Lisa Morales for the real takes on this dual!

 

[Nitlion1986]

I suspect C-Star will get some time off the first couple weekends in February, when PSU has a dual on Friday followed by a dual on Sunday. Starocci will likely wrestle one dual per weekend.

Might also be the case for Kerk; we'll see.

Could happen. Kerk is cutting nothing and I don't belive Carter is cutting much.
Last 2 years when Aaron was taking a break he was cutting a ton. Yes, last year was a decent sized cut.
Generally when healthy and not stressing over weight the starters (if known) run out and toe the line.
Last year to experience things.

 

[Nitlion1986]

This makes Starocci having 100% bonus this season without shooting once even more impressive!

Carter is that good.

 

[District four]

Madden and Spencer's mom that is.

I almost threw that emoji in the tread but though better of it. Kind of like beating the dead horse emoji lol

 

[District four]

I am not convinced

Oh I would love to be wrong but they never go chalk in this dual i smell a couple upsets both ways it's going to be a barn burner instant classic dual in my opinion. There's going to be some real fireworks

 

[District four]

Is anybody surprised that Mesinbrink is a pcych major with a philosophy minor?

He realizes those who come against him will need therapy

 

[PSU Mike]

Q: Is Caliendo’s best strategy to take top against MM? He’s gotten a few TD3s, thus far. The more time he can stay on top the better for him, no?

 

[a_mshaffer]

Q: Is Caliendo’s best strategy to take top against MM? He’s gotten a few TD3s, thus far. The more time he can stay on top the better for him, no?

I thought he slowed it down a bit at b10s last year. seemed to take a shot and stalemated.. actually converted on one or two if memory serves

 

[wrestleknownothing]

Wisdom of the Crowds

• A combination of neutrals and partisans (31 total, so far) have come up with match by match estimates for this Friday.
• Iowa is favored at three weights: 133 (84%), 157 (58%), and 197 (77%), putting the O/U at 2.5 bouts to Iowa.
• PSU is unanimous at four weights 141, 165, 174, and 285.

 

[82bordeaux]

Would love to find the video of him doing it at Rec where the young women standing nearby got weak in their knees.

I think that was me.